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  1. #1
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    David Wright's Season

    I was discussion with my buddy BABIP. I used David Wright as an example. I said that I like to use BABIP as sort of a way to measure luck to an extent, and cited his career average BABIP (which I estimated around .350), his career high BABIP (.362) and that his BABIP for this season stands at .437 (which is over 50 points higher than the 2nd highest this season).

    I noted that in my opinion this shows that he is overachieving this season.

    He then brought up that David Wright has 5 HRs. My question is does BABIP and power have any sort of correlation? Does his high BABIP mean he's had more luck, does his lack of power mean that he's been unlucky?

    I'm not quite sure what to make of Wright's season so far.

  2. #2
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    All I know is Sandoval is having a better season than him

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    Quote Originally Posted by theproof View Post
    All I know is Sandoval is having a better season than him
    And Pablo Sandoval is also going to be a one year wonder so it cancels out.

    Let's get back to the topic and leave out random homer statements.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Driven View Post
    And Pablo Sandoval is also going to be a one year wonder so it cancels out.

    Let's get back to the topic and leave out random homer statements.
    based off of what?

    And I just said the truth. If you don't like it act like an adult and ignore it.

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    Quote Originally Posted by theproof View Post
    based off of what?

    And I just said the truth. If you don't like it act like an adult and ignore it.
    You could have acted like an adult and stayed on topic and refrained from homer statements, but i digress.

    BABIP has correlation with power. It is interesting to note though, that no Major League hitter has ever finished with a BABIP of over 400. Wrights .469 BABIP is insane and is a product of good luck.

    Even if he reverts back to his career average BABIP of .352 for the second half, he will still finish with a BABIP higher than .400. He has had an extremely lucky year.

    BABIP is calculated: (H-HR)/(AB-K-HR+SF)

    More homers would make Wright LESS unlucky, hence keeping his BABIP rather stagnet.

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    ^

    some of you guys on this forum are really stuck up. Did that one little comment really piss you guys off that much? Whatever, I won't let this thread get out of hand.

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    Quote Originally Posted by MelkyNYY View Post
    You could have acted like an adult and stayed on topic and refrained from homer statements, but i digress.

    BABIP has correlation with power. It is interesting to note though, that no Major League hitter has ever finished with a BABIP of over 400. Wrights .469 BABIP is insane and is a product of good luck.

    Even if he reverts back to his career average BABIP of .352 for the second half, he will still finish with a BABIP higher than .400. He has had an extremely lucky year.

    BABIP is calculated: (H-HR)/(AB-K-HR+SF)

    More homers would make Wright LESS unlucky, hence keeping his BABIP rather stagnet.
    What is the average BABIP for a player? I've read around .290-.300, but that seems low to me.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Driven View Post
    What is the average BABIP for a player? I've read around .290-.300, but that seems low to me.
    No sir, .290 sounds about right as the average BABIP. That is the marker most GMs and Fantasy Managers use in Fantasy baseball.

    Look at the league leaders: http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.asp...n=2009&month=0

    Wright is a good 50 points ahead of second place, and over 100 above the average.

  9. #9
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    Quote Originally Posted by MelkyNYY View Post
    It is interesting to note though, that no Major League hitter has ever finished with a BABIP of over 400. Wrights .469 BABIP is insane and is a product of good luck.
    Wright's BABIP is .437 and ZiPS has him posting a .363 the rest of the year, which would leave him at .399 for the season. Still ridiculous, but just for the sake of accuracy.

    EDIT: Also, Ty Cobb posted a .400 BABIP at least four times. Rogers Hornsby did it three times. There may be other players who did likewise but I don't feel like looking.
    Last edited by TheRuckus; 07-07-2009 at 03:38 AM.

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    ****, I just wrote out an entire post and it got erased.

    Anyways, HR do not have an effect on BABIP, simply batting avergae. Every HR has a 1.000 BA obviously, so the more HR the higher your BA will be without affecting BABIP.

    Wright's just been lucky, a tool I used to use a lot on THT is called PrOPS. It adjusts OPS based on LD, GB, etc. and home park. It's a bit like tRA in a way that it uses those events, but much less accurate since hitters have more control over their BABIP than pitchers. PrOPS has Wright at .766, suggesting that he's been lucky. Since Wright's usually a high BABIP guy, you could probably safely add .100 or so points to that OPS (as his BABIP is usually about .50 higher than average, so .50 to OBP and .50 to SLG). But, in comparison, Wright last year was at .956.

    But to answer the question, Wright's HR drop will likely just affect his batting average, not BABIP.

  11. #11
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    Quote Originally Posted by theproof View Post
    All I know is Sandoval is having a better season than him
    Barely. And he's yet to prove he can maintain this kind of production over a full season, whereas Wright has been doing it for years.

  12. #12
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    what I find funny is, despite wright's gigantic BABIP and most likely other high sabermetric stats, I find myself as a mets fan unhappy with the season he's had.

    Usually when a guy strikes out at the rate wright has, it's offset by the fact that alot of power is displayed. Yet he's only had 5 HR's (and with the amount of injuries we have he chose a terrible year to have a power outage).

    It's miraculous that his average is high and he makes alot of contact cause quite frankly there are alot of flaws in his swing right now.
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    Quote Originally Posted by jetsfan89 View Post
    what I find funny is, despite wright's gigantic BABIP and most likely other high sabermetric stats, I find myself as a mets fan unhappy with the season he's had.
    And you should be, to an extent. His power has mysteriously vanished and he's on pace for his worst full season ever offensively. At the same time, high BABIP or not, an .884 OPS is still pretty damn good, and he should still end up a +5 win player. Of course, since he was worth about +16 wins over the past two seasons, that's quite a decline.

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    Hey, at least ONE minuscule facet of our team is lucky.
    "We're snakebitten, baby." --Fred Wilpon

  15. #15
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    There is a school of thought that believes that if Wright's power numbers were in line with his career average, he would be flirting with a .400 BA season. Meaning, if he was striking out less and hitting consistently for power as he was in the past.

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