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  1. #1
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    David Wright's Season

    I was discussion with my buddy BABIP. I used David Wright as an example. I said that I like to use BABIP as sort of a way to measure luck to an extent, and cited his career average BABIP (which I estimated around .350), his career high BABIP (.362) and that his BABIP for this season stands at .437 (which is over 50 points higher than the 2nd highest this season).

    I noted that in my opinion this shows that he is overachieving this season.

    He then brought up that David Wright has 5 HRs. My question is does BABIP and power have any sort of correlation? Does his high BABIP mean he's had more luck, does his lack of power mean that he's been unlucky?

    I'm not quite sure what to make of Wright's season so far.

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    All I know is Sandoval is having a better season than him

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    Quote Originally Posted by theproof View Post
    All I know is Sandoval is having a better season than him
    And Pablo Sandoval is also going to be a one year wonder so it cancels out.

    Let's get back to the topic and leave out random homer statements.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Driven View Post
    And Pablo Sandoval is also going to be a one year wonder so it cancels out.

    Let's get back to the topic and leave out random homer statements.
    based off of what?

    And I just said the truth. If you don't like it act like an adult and ignore it.

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    Quote Originally Posted by theproof View Post
    based off of what?

    And I just said the truth. If you don't like it act like an adult and ignore it.
    You could have acted like an adult and stayed on topic and refrained from homer statements, but i digress.

    BABIP has correlation with power. It is interesting to note though, that no Major League hitter has ever finished with a BABIP of over 400. Wrights .469 BABIP is insane and is a product of good luck.

    Even if he reverts back to his career average BABIP of .352 for the second half, he will still finish with a BABIP higher than .400. He has had an extremely lucky year.

    BABIP is calculated: (H-HR)/(AB-K-HR+SF)

    More homers would make Wright LESS unlucky, hence keeping his BABIP rather stagnet.

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    Quote Originally Posted by MelkyNYY View Post
    You could have acted like an adult and stayed on topic and refrained from homer statements, but i digress.

    BABIP has correlation with power. It is interesting to note though, that no Major League hitter has ever finished with a BABIP of over 400. Wrights .469 BABIP is insane and is a product of good luck.

    Even if he reverts back to his career average BABIP of .352 for the second half, he will still finish with a BABIP higher than .400. He has had an extremely lucky year.

    BABIP is calculated: (H-HR)/(AB-K-HR+SF)

    More homers would make Wright LESS unlucky, hence keeping his BABIP rather stagnet.
    What is the average BABIP for a player? I've read around .290-.300, but that seems low to me.

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    Quote Originally Posted by MelkyNYY View Post
    It is interesting to note though, that no Major League hitter has ever finished with a BABIP of over 400. Wrights .469 BABIP is insane and is a product of good luck.
    Wright's BABIP is .437 and ZiPS has him posting a .363 the rest of the year, which would leave him at .399 for the season. Still ridiculous, but just for the sake of accuracy.

    EDIT: Also, Ty Cobb posted a .400 BABIP at least four times. Rogers Hornsby did it three times. There may be other players who did likewise but I don't feel like looking.
    Last edited by TheRuckus; 07-07-2009 at 03:38 AM.

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    It's not 100% luck, but it's probably 80%-90%. As I type this, Wright bloops a ball into shallow right-center, Dickerson coming as close to catching a ball as you can without actually catching it.

    But yeah, he's having a lucky season to a certain extent.

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    Quote Originally Posted by theproof View Post
    All I know is Sandoval is having a better season than him
    Barely. And he's yet to prove he can maintain this kind of production over a full season, whereas Wright has been doing it for years.

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    ^

    some of you guys on this forum are really stuck up. Did that one little comment really piss you guys off that much? Whatever, I won't let this thread get out of hand.

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    Hey, at least ONE minuscule facet of our team is lucky.
    "We're snakebitten, baby." --Fred Wilpon

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    ****, I just wrote out an entire post and it got erased.

    Anyways, HR do not have an effect on BABIP, simply batting avergae. Every HR has a 1.000 BA obviously, so the more HR the higher your BA will be without affecting BABIP.

    Wright's just been lucky, a tool I used to use a lot on THT is called PrOPS. It adjusts OPS based on LD, GB, etc. and home park. It's a bit like tRA in a way that it uses those events, but much less accurate since hitters have more control over their BABIP than pitchers. PrOPS has Wright at .766, suggesting that he's been lucky. Since Wright's usually a high BABIP guy, you could probably safely add .100 or so points to that OPS (as his BABIP is usually about .50 higher than average, so .50 to OBP and .50 to SLG). But, in comparison, Wright last year was at .956.

    But to answer the question, Wright's HR drop will likely just affect his batting average, not BABIP.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Gigantes4Life View Post
    \Anyways, HR do not have an effect on BABIP, simply batting avergae. Every HR has a 1.000 BA obviously, so the more HR the higher your BA will be without affecting BABIP.
    Yeah I get this, but do you think there is a correlation between a high BABIP and low power?

    Wright's just been lucky, a tool I used to use a lot on THT is called PrOPS. It adjusts OPS based on LD, GB, etc. and home park. It's a bit like tRA in a way that it uses those events, but much less accurate since hitters have more control over their BABIP than pitchers. PrOPS has Wright at .766, suggesting that he's been lucky. Since Wright's usually a high BABIP guy, you could probably safely add .100 or so points to that OPS (as his BABIP is usually about .50 higher than average, so .50 to OBP and .50 to SLG). But, in comparison, Wright last year was at .956.

    But to answer the question, Wright's HR drop will likely just affect his batting average, not BABIP.
    Yeah like I said, I wanted to see if there was a correlation between the two, not if HR affects BABIP. I guess I just worded it wrong. My main question in my head is what to make of his season. He's been completely lucky with his BABIP, but I don't know what to make of his power.

    Basically, I wanted to know if Wright's freakishly low power numbers were a product of his high BABIP.
    Last edited by Driven; 07-07-2009 at 01:51 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Driven View Post
    Yeah I get this, but do you think there is a correlation between a high BABIP and low power?



    Yeah like I said, I wanted to see if there was a correlation between the two, not if HR affects BABIP. I guess I just worded it wrong. My main question in my head is what to make of his season. He's been completely lucky with his BABIP, but I don't know what to make of his power.

    Basically, I wanted to know if Wright's freakishly low power numbers were a product of his high BABIP.
    I guess I thought you wanted to know what to think of his season with the high BABIP. Anyways, I doubt there's any real correlation. The only one I could see is that HR hitters are typically "big guys" and might be slower thus fewer infield hits. Dunn, Burrell, Giambi, etc.

    But no, I don't believe that HR and BABIP have any correlation, at least direct correlation. BABIP simply depends on the type of hitter you are speed, and ballpark (infield, Fenway, etc.).

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    Quote Originally Posted by Gigantes4Life View Post

    But to answer the question, Wright's HR drop will likely just affect his batting average, not BABIP.
    Couldnt one assume that wrights lack of HRs means he hitting more balls hard that just dont quite make it out of the ballpark and thus become 2Bs and 3Bs, which would raise his BABIP. Lets say he has 10 balls that "should" have been HRs and are now non HR XBHs.

    this year
    AB 354
    H 112
    HR 5
    K 93
    SF 2

    "should be" this year
    AB 354
    H 112
    HR 15
    K 93
    SF 2

    this year BABIP .415
    should be BABIP .391

    so those 10 less HRs which are now 2Bs and 3Bs, has caused his BABIP to be .0236 higher.

    another reason for his high BABIP (compared to career norms) is his abnormally (hopefully) high K rate.

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