Danny Haren vs Tim Lincecum

[Jim Morrison]

I saw this being argued in an all star game thread a while ago. It seeed most people who used sabermetrics were takin Lincecum at that point.

Who is having the better year? Lincecum or Haren?

Haren:
16 Starts
115 Innings
78 hits allowed
15 walks allowed
(93 baserunners allowed in 115 innings)
28 earned runs (2.19 ERA)
113 strikeouts
.189 BA against
7-5 record

Lincecum:
16 Starts
114 innings
94 hits allowed
28 walks allowed
(122 baserunners allowed in 114 innings)
30 ER (2.37 ERA)
132 strikeouts
.224 BA against
8-2 record

Considering that in more innings, Haren has allowed a lot less walks, less hits, and less runs, I would say unquestionably that Haren has been better so far this season. (not to take anything away from lincecum.)

[Seamhead]

Tough comparison. Right now, I'd say Timmy has pitched better, as shown by his peripherals and superior tRA, and has fallen victim to a .320 BABIP. Meanwhile, Haren has posted from a low .240 BABIP, which will more than likely regress.

I'll go with Timmy. While Haren has the better ERA+, I wouldn't expect that to last much longer.

[Jim Morrison]

Tough comparison. Right now, I'd say Timmy has pitched better, as shown by his peripherals and superior tRA, and has fallen victim to a .320 BABIP. Meanwhile, Haren has posted from a low .240 BABIP, which will more than likely regress.

I'll go with Timmy. While Haren has the better ERA+, I wouldn't expect that to last much longer.

Alright, thats fair, but BABIP is not a very reliable stat IMO. They say it shold be set at the same rate for all pithers, .310 if i remember right, but thats completely ignoring the fact that the pitchers actually DO infuence where the ball goes, and therefore the BABIP.

[Driven]

Alright, thats fair, but BABIP is not a very reliable stat IMO. They say it shold be set at the same rate for all pithers, .310 if i remember right, but thats completely ignoring the fact that the pitchers actually DO infuence where the ball goes, and therefore the BABIP.

The difference is that you can see trends in a players BABIP. If he's historically had a good BABIP, and all of the sudden for this season it's high, it likely means that he's a victim of bad luck. I don't see that in Lincecum's case though, as he had a .310 BABIP last season.

Haren's BABIP is a whole lot less than what it has been in recent years.

[Seamhead]

League average, where pitchers are expected to fall, is from around .290 to .300. Pitchers do have an effect on their BABIP, mostly due to the type of batted balls they give up (LDs, GBs, FBs). That's why we have to measure their BABIP against their expected BABIP given batted ball rates. And Lincecum's eBABIP this season is .325, so his BABIP is actually where it should be. Haren, on the other hand, as a .314 eBABIP, which when compared to his .240 BABIP, is a tremendous difference not likely to be substained.

[TheRuckus]

Timmy. Haren's outperforming his peripherals; Lincecum is not, and their surface stats are neck and neck.

[Gigantes4Life]

Lincecum haz more winz!

But really, FIP, tRA suggest that Lincecum's having the better year. As pointed out, the difference in BABIP is part of the reason why Haren's given up less hits. IIRC, his LD% is a bit higher than Timmy's too (don't feel like checking).

[Dewey Finn]

Haren.