Nyjer Morgan = Adam Dunn

[bravesfan22193]

Upside-at 24 and with his mental makeup i dont see Milledge progressing much, you are right about Morgan's speed likely not getting better but i meant his approach to stealing and knowledge on the base paths should improve. I'll take the sure thing in this scenario

[C1Bman88]

Upside-at 24 and with his mental makeup i dont see Milledge progressing much, you are right about Morgan's speed likely not getting better but i meant his approach to stealing and knowledge on the base paths should improve. I'll take the sure thing in this scenario

Okay, but even if that's the case, the impact of baserunning in any given season typically ranges from -5 to +5 runs, which is half a win. Baserunning is important, sure, but it has a limited impact on the game- and Morgan is no Ichiro.

Milledge has more of a future in the Pirates organization than Morgan does, which is one of the main reasons they acquired him.

[Matt-the-great]

Dave Cameron got so much flack on FanGraphs for this...so many of the comments were ripping him....

i think the article is brilliant and a true sign of advancement for statistical analysis

[papipapsmanny]

when it comes down to it i wouldnt hesitate to pick dunn over morgan.

and yes it was a bad deal for the nationals in the sense it didnt make sense for them

[Kirel]

I agreed with that article right up to the "100 Lastings Milledges" line.

At that point he turned himsef entirely upside down. Claiming that the value of Morgan easily supercedes Dunn based on salary is true, but Morgans cost is not just in salary. The value of Morgan is his salary plus the marginal value of the players sent to the Pirates in exchange(basically the marginal value of their talent and IMHO, the depreciated cost of developing\acquiring those players). The "talent" of Milledge factors into the cost. As does the talent of Hanrahan and Burnett. And that ignores opportunity costs. IMHO, the "cost" of morgan probably approaches half or more of what Dunn cost, which was only money. And if Dunn puts more butts in the seats, the margin shrinks even farther.

[Gigantes4Life]

when it comes down to it i wouldnt hesitate to pick dunn over morgan.

and yes it was a bad deal for the nationals in the sense it didnt make sense for them

I would take Dunn as well, simply because his production can be maximized by switching leagues.

And Kirel, I don't think anyone disagrees with you, but I think the main point of this thread was in context of the purpose of the forum: to show what the value of a player is, and to help people compare.

[Kirel]

I would take Dunn as well, simply because his production can be maximized by switching leagues.

And Kirel, I don't think anyone disagrees with you, but I think the main point of this thread was in context of the purpose of the forum: to show what the value of a player is, and to help people compare.

Which is fine, but if you make the mistake of teaching people cost lies only in salary they aren't going to analyze deals properly, much like this article did not.

[MetsNats1969]

Dunn crushed a homerun tonight, Morgan made another great defensive play in center. I'll take them both.

[Gigantes4Life]

Which is fine, but if you make the mistake of teaching people cost lies only in salary they aren't going to analyze deals properly, much like this article did not.

Obviously Dunn isn't helping much, because their attendance is down 7 thousand a game.

[ZHAKIDD532]

You would think by reading the title it's BS, but it makes sense. This is why Dunn belongs in the AL batting as a DH. If I were an AL team, I would have scooped him up last off season right from the get go. He would hit 60 HR's per year at Yankee Stadium.

He's always been in the NL, but he's much better suited as a DH. Morgan makes a difference everywhere else and therefore if suited for where he is.

[JAYZFAN9]

Am I correct by saying that this article suggests defensive value is equal to offensive value?

[C1Bman88]

Am I correct by saying that this article suggests defensive value is equal to offensive value?

A run saved is equal to a run created.

[Gigantes4Life]

Am I correct by saying that this article suggests defensive value is equal to offensive value?

Yes. If your question is defense as important as offense, then that's not what it's implying. It's easier to have an impact with offense obviously then defense, unless you're Adam Dunn bad.

[papipapsmanny]

A run saved is equal to a run created.

but isnt it much easier to determine how many runs were creates as opposed to how many were saved?

[C1Bman88]

but isnt it much easier to determine how many runs were creates as opposed to how many were saved?

To a certain extent, yes. I think people take run estimators too much for granted on an individual level though.