Like us on Facebook


Follow us on Twitter





Page 1 of 2 12 LastLast
Results 1 to 15 of 20
  1. #1
    Join Date
    Feb 2009
    Posts
    5,684
    vCash
    1500

    Not a simple question

    I'd like to see a study done of which team is more likely to lose:

    Team A: Gives up 4-5 runs in the first inning and then shuts them out for the rest of the game.

    Team B: Gives up 4-5 runs over the course of the game without giving up more than 1 run per inning.

    If you think it's a no-brainer, then sorry to have wasted anyone's time.

    Edit: It might be easier to find games in which team A is down by 4-5 runs after TWO innings and then shuts down the opponent.
    Last edited by Pavelb1; 06-28-2009 at 01:11 AM.

  2. #2
    Join Date
    Feb 2008
    Posts
    4,008
    vCash
    1500
    In mathematical theory, it doesn't matter. All innings have equal value on a linear scale, a run in the 1st counts the same as a run in the 9th.

    The only real argument here is what kind of emotional or mental effect it has. And that's pretty subjective and doesn't belong in this forum. Definitely not sabermetrics.

  3. #3
    Join Date
    Jul 2008
    Posts
    5,590
    vCash
    1500
    The fact that it's affected by emotional/mental factors, which are subjective, does not mean it doesn't belong in here. It's something that can be quantified, therefore, it's a study that can be done.

    It's the same thing with clutch. Whether or not it's an ability/skill, we can quantify how players perform in those situations.

  4. #4
    Join Date
    Apr 2004
    Posts
    39,150
    vCash
    1500
    Well you can find the win percentage of a team who gives up 4-5 runs in the first.

    I know that's not really what you want, but you can find that here: http://winexp.walkoffbalk.com/expectancy/search

    In the second inning down by four, the home team has won 19.1 percent of the time.

    Entering the second down by five, the home team has won 19.0 percent of the time.

  5. #5
    Join Date
    Jun 2009
    Posts
    39
    vCash
    1500
    It depends on a lot of things...you cant actually figure that out

  6. #6
    Join Date
    Jun 2009
    Posts
    39
    vCash
    1500
    Quote Originally Posted by Seamhead View Post
    The fact that it's affected by emotional/mental factors, which are subjective, does not mean it doesn't belong in here. It's something that can be quantified, therefore, it's a study that can be done.

    It's the same thing with clutch. Whether or not it's an ability/skill, we can quantify how players perform in those situations.
    Then go ahead and prove it.

  7. #7
    Join Date
    Jul 2008
    Posts
    5,590
    vCash
    1500
    Prove what?

  8. #8
    Join Date
    Jun 2009
    Posts
    39
    vCash
    1500
    Quote Originally Posted by Seamhead View Post
    The fact that it's affected by emotional/mental factors, which are subjective, does not mean it doesn't belong in here. It's something that can be quantified, therefore, it's a study that can be done.

    It's the same thing with clutch. Whether or not it's an ability/skill, we can quantify how players perform in those situations.
    That. How do you quantify it or study it? Trust me when I tell ya that math cant tell anything involving emotions or mental states. It all depends on the people involved.

  9. #9
    Join Date
    Jul 2008
    Posts
    5,590
    vCash
    1500
    This is what I was referring to:

    I'd like to see a study done of which team is more likely to lose:

    Team A: Gives up 4-5 runs in the first inning and then shuts them out for the rest of the game.

    Team B: Gives up 4-5 runs over the course of the game without giving up more than 1 run per inning
    That can be studied.

  10. #10
    Join Date
    Jun 2007
    Location
    California
    Posts
    69,991
    vCash
    1500
    To answer the question, the team that gives up 4-5 runs in the 1st inning is more likely to lose simply because not all games go 9 innings.

  11. #11
    Join Date
    Jul 2006
    Location
    A place called Paradise
    Posts
    13,613
    vCash
    1500
    Quote Originally Posted by Seamhead View Post
    This is what I was referring to:



    That can be studied.
    yea but you could never prove which team is more likely to lose........ assuming 9 innings are played
    Jackie Bradley Junior.... that is all

  12. #12
    Join Date
    Apr 2008
    Location
    /bin/zsh
    Posts
    3,560
    vCash
    1500
    Quote Originally Posted by papipapsmanny View Post
    yea but you could never prove which team is more likely to lose........ assuming 9 innings are played
    Sure you could. Look at all of the games where the scenario fits and see which team won more often. You'd either see a significant difference or not.

  13. #13
    Join Date
    Jul 2006
    Location
    A place called Paradise
    Posts
    13,613
    vCash
    1500
    yea but your only reasoning that one happened more than the other would be because the math said so.
    Jackie Bradley Junior.... that is all

  14. #14
    Join Date
    Apr 2006
    Posts
    28,397
    vCash
    1500
    Quote Originally Posted by papipapsmanny View Post
    yea but your only reasoning that one happened more than the other would be because the math said so.
    Isnt that the point of this?

    If in scenario A: over the last 1000 instances the team won 20% of the time, and in scenario B over the last 1000 instance the team won 35% of the time.

    Wouldnt you say that scenario B is more likely to win?

    It kinda reminds me of poker. If you are heads up and you have a 70% chance to win, wouldnt you say you have a better chance to win than your opponent.

    Even if you opponent gets his card(s) you still at that one time had a better chance of winning than your opponent.

    I think poker and baseball are a lot alike.
    Free Doug

  15. #15
    Join Date
    Jun 2007
    Location
    California
    Posts
    69,991
    vCash
    1500
    It's all probability.

Page 1 of 2 12 LastLast

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •