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  1. #241
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    Is Speed considered when calculating WAR?

    Or is that factored into RAR somehow?

    I get the feeling it isn't which is a shame.

  2. #242
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hustla23 View Post
    Is Speed considered when calculating WAR?

    Or is that factored into RAR somehow?

    I get the feeling it isn't which is a shame.
    RAR and WAR are the same exact thing, just shown in different format. RAR is "Runs Above Replacement," and WAR are "Wins Above Replacement." 10 runs equals one win, so when you see RAR, just divide by 10 to get WAR.

    "Speed" is a largely subjective thing and even the concept of "Speed Scores" don't tell you much. Speed doesn't necessarily translate into good baserunning. But if you're referring to SB/CS, that's included in WAR. But it doesn't add much, to be honest.

    Baserunning in general has a little impact on a player's overall contribution- you're looking at about +/- 5 runs on the basepaths. The best and worst baserunners add or subtract about 10 runs to their team.
    My blog- analysis of the San Francisco Giants, Baseball, and Sabermetrics.

  3. #243
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    Quote Originally Posted by C1Bman88 View Post
    RAR and WAR are the same exact thing, just shown in different format. RAR is "Runs Above Replacement," and WAR are "Wins Above Replacement." 10 runs equals one win, so when you see RAR, just divide by 10 to get WAR.

    "Speed" is a largely subjective thing and even the concept of "Speed Scores" don't tell you much. Speed doesn't necessarily translate into good baserunning. But if you're referring to SB/CS, that's included in WAR. But it doesn't add much, to be honest.

    Baserunning in general has a little impact on a player's overall contribution- you're looking at about +/- 5 runs on the basepaths. The best and worst baserunners add or subtract about 10 runs to their team.
    Is that a subjective conclusion?

    Or does base running really not factor much into runs produced?

    I'd consider the ability to steal bases a pretty big factor in scoring runs IMO

  4. #244
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hustla23 View Post
    Is that a subjective conclusion?

    Or does base running really not factor much into runs produced?

    I'd consider the ability to steal bases a pretty big factor in scoring runs IMO
    No, not a subjective conclusion at all. You can look at the best and worst baserunners here. Michael Bourn was the only player to be worth over 1 win in baserunning runs. Only 5 players from 2006-2009 have amassed over a win on the basepaths.

    As for the value of a steal, it's relatively straightforward- just use a run expectancy chart.

    Say we have a man on first base—the average run expectancy of a runner on first is 0.552. If he steals second base, the run expectancy increases to about 0.726 runs. The difference between the two, 0.174, is the run value of a stolen base. If he’s caught stealing, the difference is between having no runners on base (0.302) and having a man on second (0.726), or -0.249 runs. If we do the same thing for third base, we find that the run value of stealing third is worth 0.211 runs and a caught stealing is -0.635 runs.

    If you find the average value between steals and caught stealing of second and third base, you'll find that the run value of a stolen base is about ((0.174+0.211)/2) = 0.19 runs added, and a caught stealing would be worth about ((-0.249+-0.635)/2) = -0.44 runs.

    So, Jacoby Ellsbury, who stole 70 bases in 2009, added 13.3 runs via steals, but cost his team -5.3 runs by being caught stealing 12 times. So that means he added a net gain of around +8 runs added. Baseball Prospectus' EQBRR has Ellsbury adding +7 runs, but their methodology is MUCH more intricately detailed, and includes things like park effects.
    My blog- analysis of the San Francisco Giants, Baseball, and Sabermetrics.

  5. #245
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    Quote Originally Posted by C1Bman88 View Post
    No, not a subjective conclusion at all. You can look at the best and worst baserunners here. Michael Bourn was the only player to be worth over 1 win in baserunning runs. Only 5 players from 2006-2009 have amassed over a win on the basepaths.

    As for the value of a steal, it's relatively straightforward- just use a run expectancy chart.

    Say we have a man on first base—the average run expectancy of a runner on first is 0.552. If he steals second base, the run expectancy increases to about 0.726 runs. The difference between the two, 0.174, is the run value of a stolen base. If he’s caught stealing, the difference is between having no runners on base (0.302) and having a man on second (0.726), or -0.249 runs. If we do the same thing for third base, we find that the run value of stealing third is worth 0.211 runs and a caught stealing is -0.635 runs.

    If you find the average value between steals and caught stealing of second and third base, you'll find that the run value of a stolen base is about ((0.174+0.211)/2) = 0.19 runs added, and a caught stealing would be worth about ((-0.249+-0.635)/2) = -0.44 runs.

    So, Jacoby Ellsbury, who stole 70 bases in 2009, added 13.3 runs via steals, but cost his team -5.3 runs by being caught stealing 12 times. So that means he added a net gain of around +8 runs added. Baseball Prospectus' EQBRR has Ellsbury adding +7 runs, but their methodology is MUCH more intricately detailed, and includes things like park effects.
    Ahh, I see.

    Thank you very much for the information. It was very well described and informative.

    But you said that SB/CS doesn't affect factor in much.

    But one win would be a significant number wouldn't it? Considering, it is one win based entirely on speed.

  6. #246
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hustla23 View Post
    Ahh, I see.

    Thank you very much for the information. It was very well described and informative.

    But you said that SB/CS doesn't affect factor in much.

    But one win would be a significant number wouldn't it? Considering, it is one win based entirely on speed.
    Ah, but baserunning ability isn't reliant on speed. The best baserunners tend to be speed demons, but it's ultimately the player's instincts and their ability to capitalize on an opportunity that makes a runner good. Ryan Zimmerman, for example, isn't fast- but he's smart, so he helped add 5 runs to his team. Kurt Suzuki isn't fast either, but he added 4 runs to the Athletics this past season by virtue of his smart baserunning.

    One win is significant, but the lack of players to reach that mark is extraordinarily low, and the amount of players that reach even half of that mark is also low. It is significant for certain players, yes, but for most, not very.
    My blog- analysis of the San Francisco Giants, Baseball, and Sabermetrics.

  7. #247
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    Quote Originally Posted by C1Bman88 View Post
    Ah, but baserunning ability isn't reliant on speed. The best baserunners tend to be speed demons, but it's ultimately the player's instincts and their ability to capitalize on an opportunity that makes a runner good. Ryan Zimmerman, for example, isn't fast- but he's smart, so he helped add 5 runs to his team. Kurt Suzuki isn't fast either, but he added 4 runs to the Athletics this past season by virtue of his smart baserunning.

    One win is significant, but the lack of players to reach that mark is extraordinarily low, and the amount of players that reach even half of that mark is also low. It is significant for certain players, yes, but for most, not very.
    Okay, I understand now.

    Sorry to keep bugging you , but is there any stat that measures speed in the sense that, a player has the ability to go from first to third on base hits more often than other players or can score from first, etc, etc.

    Or would that depend too much on the type of the ball hit (whether it was a single, double, etc).

  8. #248
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hustla23 View Post
    Okay, I understand now.

    Sorry to keep bugging you , but is there any stat that measures speed in the sense that, a player has the ability to go from first to third on base hits more often than other players or can score from first, etc, etc.

    Or would that depend too much on the type of the ball hit (whether it was a single, double, etc).
    Not a problem!

    Actually, EQBRR (which is the statistic I listed above) is broken down into different components- what you're looking for would be EQHAR, which stands for Equivalent Hit Advancement Runs.

    Baseball-Reference has some of the raw data for this that you'd be looking for- you can compare players' XBT% (Extra Bases Taken Percentage). Among full-time players, Colby Rasmus, Chase Utley, Dexter Fowler, Chone Figgins and Emilio Bonifacio rank the highest.
    My blog- analysis of the San Francisco Giants, Baseball, and Sabermetrics.

  9. #249
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    Quote Originally Posted by C1Bman88 View Post
    Not a problem!

    Actually, EQBRR (which is the statistic I listed above) is broken down into different components- what you're looking for would be EQHAR, which stands for Equivalent Hit Advancement Runs.

    Baseball-Reference has some of the raw data for this that you'd be looking for- you can compare players' XBT% (Extra Bases Taken Percentage). Among full-time players, Colby Rasmus, Chase Utley, Dexter Fowler, Chone Figgins and Emilio Bonifacio rank the highest.
    Great, great stuff.

    Thank you very much for your time.

    I've newly got into sabermetrics and it is just fascinating.

  10. #250
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hustla23 View Post
    Great, great stuff.

    Thank you very much for your time.

    I've newly got into sabermetrics and it is just fascinating.
    You're very welcome.

    Please, don't hesitate to ask any questions- I'm sure either myself or another regular in this forum will be more than happy to answer them.
    My blog- analysis of the San Francisco Giants, Baseball, and Sabermetrics.

  11. #251
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    ISO- I understand how they get it, slg-avg, but what use is it and what does it show. If that makes sense

  12. #252
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    Quote Originally Posted by bosox3431 View Post
    ISO- I understand how they get it, slg-avg, but what use is it and what does it show. If that makes sense
    ISO is an attempt to demonstrate how much power a player has. League average ISO is generally around .155-.160, so when you see a guy hovering around .180-.200, that means they have above average power. .220+ is when you start seeing the elite sluggers, and .300 is around Albert Pujols level, which is about twice as much "power" compared to the average player.

    ISO is useful in that it'll tell us which guys have more "pop" in their bat, but at the same time it can be misleading because it doesn't tell us whether or not the player is productive. A guy can be hitting .200/.230/.400 and have an ISO of .200, which indicates he's hitting for a lot of power. But he's definitely not producing.

    There's also the issue of sample size- if a player has 100 AB, we really don't know if he's actually a power hitter or not. The player's ISO can be artificially inflated by a hot streak. So using a full season's worth of data is more telling.

    I hope that answers your question. If not, please let me know and I'll try and explain it better.
    My blog- analysis of the San Francisco Giants, Baseball, and Sabermetrics.

  13. #253
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    Quote Originally Posted by C1Bman88 View Post
    ISO is an attempt to demonstrate how much power a player has. League average ISO is generally around .155-.160, so when you see a guy hovering around .180-.200, that means they have above average power. .220+ is when you start seeing the elite sluggers, and .300 is around Albert Pujols level, which is about twice as much "power" compared to the average player.

    ISO is useful in that it'll tell us which guys have more "pop" in their bat, but at the same time it can be misleading because it doesn't tell us whether or not the player is productive. A guy can be hitting .200/.230/.400 and have an ISO of .200, which indicates he's hitting for a lot of power. But he's definitely not producing.

    There's also the issue of sample size- if a player has 100 AB, we really don't know if he's actually a power hitter or not. The player's ISO can be artificially inflated by a hot streak. So using a full season's worth of data is more telling.

    I hope that answers your question. If not, please let me know and I'll try and explain it better.
    I think I get it.

    Could you do the same thing with OBP and Avg then? I didnt really look to see if there was stat for that or not, just wondering though.

  14. #254
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    Quote Originally Posted by bosox3431 View Post
    I think I get it.

    Could you do the same thing with OBP and Avg then? I didnt really look to see if there was stat for that or not, just wondering though.
    You most certainly can. It's often referred to as IsoD or IsOBP, but it's not cited as often as ISO (which is sometimes called ISOP or ISOSLG) is. An IsOBP of around .50 is average, .60 is above average, .70 is good, .80 is very good... .100 is outstanding, and so on and so forth.
    My blog- analysis of the San Francisco Giants, Baseball, and Sabermetrics.

  15. #255
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    To add on a bit to what C1B said, ISO makes more sense if you look at it in the equivalent form (TB-H)/AB. So it measures extra bases on hits (beyond first) per at bat, as opposed to SLG which measures total bases per at bat.

    While people do use OBA-BA, my preference would be that they wouldn't. The different denominators of OBA and BA result in a statistic with a bizarre denominator (AB*PA). If you have two players with equal walk + hit batter rates, the one with the lower batting average will have the higher OBA-BA.

    The distortions are not huge, but I really don't see any reason to use OBA-BA. You can very easily figure (W+HB) per PA as (OBA - BA)/(1 - BA) or (W+HB) to AB ratio as (OBA - BA)/(1 - OBA). Either of those figures makes a lot more sense than OBA-BA.
    Last edited by Toirtap; 10-12-2009 at 03:21 PM.

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