Is Speed considered when calculating WAR?
Or is that factored into RAR somehow?
I get the feeling it isn't which is a shame.
"Speed" is a largely subjective thing and even the concept of "Speed Scores" don't tell you much. Speed doesn't necessarily translate into good baserunning. But if you're referring to SB/CS, that's included in WAR. But it doesn't add much, to be honest.
Baserunning in general has a little impact on a player's overall contribution- you're looking at about +/- 5 runs on the basepaths. The best and worst baserunners add or subtract about 10 runs to their team.
here. Michael Bourn was the only player to be worth over 1 win in baserunning runs. Only 5 players from 2006-2009 have amassed over a win on the basepaths.
As for the value of a steal, it's relatively straightforward- just use a run expectancy chart.
Say we have a man on first base—the average run expectancy of a runner on first is 0.552. If he steals second base, the run expectancy increases to about 0.726 runs. The difference between the two, 0.174, is the run value of a stolen base. If he’s caught stealing, the difference is between having no runners on base (0.302) and having a man on second (0.726), or -0.249 runs. If we do the same thing for third base, we find that the run value of stealing third is worth 0.211 runs and a caught stealing is -0.635 runs.
If you find the average value between steals and caught stealing of second and third base, you'll find that the run value of a stolen base is about ((0.174+0.211)/2) = 0.19 runs added, and a caught stealing would be worth about ((-0.249+-0.635)/2) = -0.44 runs.
So, Jacoby Ellsbury, who stole 70 bases in 2009, added 13.3 runs via steals, but cost his team -5.3 runs by being caught stealing 12 times. So that means he added a net gain of around +8 runs added. Baseball Prospectus' EQBRR has Ellsbury adding +7 runs, but their methodology is MUCH more intricately detailed, and includes things like park effects.
One win is significant, but the lack of players to reach that mark is extraordinarily low, and the amount of players that reach even half of that mark is also low. It is significant for certain players, yes, but for most, not very.
Sorry to keep bugging you , but is there any stat that measures speed in the sense that, a player has the ability to go from first to third on base hits more often than other players or can score from first, etc, etc.
Or would that depend too much on the type of the ball hit (whether it was a single, double, etc).
Actually, EQBRR (which is the statistic I listed above) is broken down into different components- what you're looking for would be EQHAR, which stands for Equivalent Hit Advancement Runs.
Baseball-Reference has some of the raw data for this that you'd be looking for- you can compare players' XBT% (Extra Bases Taken Percentage). Among full-time players, Colby Rasmus, Chase Utley, Dexter Fowler, Chone Figgins and Emilio Bonifacio rank the highest.
ISO- I understand how they get it, slg-avg, but what use is it and what does it show. If that makes sense
ISO is useful in that it'll tell us which guys have more "pop" in their bat, but at the same time it can be misleading because it doesn't tell us whether or not the player is productive. A guy can be hitting .200/.230/.400 and have an ISO of .200, which indicates he's hitting for a lot of power. But he's definitely not producing.
There's also the issue of sample size- if a player has 100 AB, we really don't know if he's actually a power hitter or not. The player's ISO can be artificially inflated by a hot streak. So using a full season's worth of data is more telling.
I hope that answers your question. If not, please let me know and I'll try and explain it better.
To add on a bit to what C1B said, ISO makes more sense if you look at it in the equivalent form (TB-H)/AB. So it measures extra bases on hits (beyond first) per at bat, as opposed to SLG which measures total bases per at bat.
While people do use OBA-BA, my preference would be that they wouldn't. The different denominators of OBA and BA result in a statistic with a bizarre denominator (AB*PA). If you have two players with equal walk + hit batter rates, the one with the lower batting average will have the higher OBA-BA.
The distortions are not huge, but I really don't see any reason to use OBA-BA. You can very easily figure (W+HB) per PA as (OBA - BA)/(1 - BA) or (W+HB) to AB ratio as (OBA - BA)/(1 - OBA). Either of those figures makes a lot more sense than OBA-BA.
Last edited by Toirtap; 10-12-2009 at 03:21 PM.