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  1. #196
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    Most pitchers usually don't have high expected BABIPs unless they're absolutely getting hammered.

    It's not the most accurate, but generally LD%+.12 is a rough estimate of what BABIP should be.

    Lester has a 19% LD, so his BABIP is too high.
    Smoltz is at 19.6%, so they're both just unlucky. He's also lucky that his ERA is low with that BABIP, although he's been pitching good (if that makes sense).

  2. #197
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    but why is it .290 to determine wheter a player is lucky or not.

    Like Ted Williams had a career BABIP of .329 so am I supposed to assum he was lucky his whole career or do I use that number to look at seasons where he was lucky and unlucky.

    same with pedroia who has a career BABIP of .323
    Jackie Bradley Junior.... that is all

  3. #198
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    Quote Originally Posted by papipapsmanny View Post
    but why is it .290 to determine wheter a player is lucky or not.

    Like Ted Williams had a career BABIP of .329 so am I supposed to assum he was lucky his whole career or do I use that number to look at seasons where he was lucky and unlucky.

    same with pedroia who has a career BABIP of .323
    You can't just look at the BABIP by itself and say, "Oh, that hitter is lucky/unlucky." Unlike pitchers, hitter have some control over their BABIP (although you really can't just look at BABIP for pitchers, either). .290 is simply the league average.

    We don't have batted ball data for Teddy Ballgame, but we do for Pedroia. His LD rate is above average, therefore his BABIP being higher than average is probably not a fluke.

    Basically, as usual, you have to look at the whole picture and not just one small part of it.

    I'd have a more in-depth explanation for you, but xBABIP still isn't freely available without having to calculate it myself, and I'm lazy. The old LD+.12 is still relatively useful as a quick and dirty estimate, but xBABIP is much more accurate. It includes speed, general location of hit, plate discipline, contact rate, park, handedness, and more.

  4. #199
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    Quote Originally Posted by papipapsmanny View Post
    but why is it .290 to determine wheter a player is lucky or not.

    Like Ted Williams had a career BABIP of .329 so am I supposed to assum he was lucky his whole career or do I use that number to look at seasons where he was lucky and unlucky.

    same with pedroia who has a career BABIP of .323
    Common rule of thumb. For pitchers use xBABIP or LD+.12

    For hitters, compare it to their career averages.

  5. #200
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    Can someone please explain how to calculate UZR. I know how it works, and what is a good UZR and what is bad, but I don't get the rationale behind it and haven't been able to find a good site to explain it.


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  6. #201
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    Everyone one says this FIP is equivalent to this ERA my question is simple, how do you figure that out????
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  7. #202
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    What do you mean?
    My blog- analysis of the San Francisco Giants, Baseball, and Sabermetrics.

  8. #203
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    I keep seeing posters post a pitchers FIP and saying that the equivalent to this ERA....

    I don't get that either I was trying to figure out if anyone here could clarify that
    Jackie Bradley Junior.... that is all

  9. #204
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    Quote Originally Posted by NYY3487 View Post
    Can someone please explain how to calculate UZR. I know how it works, and what is a good UZR and what is bad, but I don't get the rationale behind it and haven't been able to find a good site to explain it.
    http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/..._2003-03-14_0/

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    Quote Originally Posted by papipapsmanny View Post
    I keep seeing posters post a pitchers FIP and saying that the equivalent to this ERA....

    I don't get that either I was trying to figure out if anyone here could clarify that
    It's on the scale of ERA (runs/9 IP). I assume that's what they meant.

  10. #205
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    Quick question

    On statcorner when you are looking at a players stats and it has their 09 WAR, is that how many they have been worth SO FAR, or is it how much they are worth over a full season

    thanks

  11. #206
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    Quote Originally Posted by carson005 View Post
    Quick question

    On statcorner when you are looking at a players stats and it has their 09 WAR, is that how many they have been worth SO FAR, or is it how much they are worth over a full season

    thanks
    Just so far, I believe. But they're using hWAR, which is hitting only.

  12. #207
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    Gracias

  13. #208
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    Question about UZR:

    Isn't UZR a cumulative stat and UZR/150 is a rate stat? If so, then why don't people use UZR/150 more often?

    I might sound like an idiot here because I don't really know much about UZR, but isn't that just like listing how many times a guy has reached base instead of listing his OBP? Or am I completely off base here?

    EDIT: never mind I guess that's a bad analogy considering UZR can be negative and OBP can't. So basically, can someone just explain what the differences are between UZR and UZR/150 and when to use which?
    Last edited by hoggin88; 08-10-2009 at 11:25 PM.
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  14. #209
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    You use UZR because it measures actual defensive value, UZR/150 is to give you idea of what type of a defender a guy is in a full season.

  15. #210
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    Sorry if this has been asked before or if it's too stupid but I was thinking about this last night

    Does Uzr take into consideration if the ball in play is a LD FB or GB?

    The GB part for Infielders

    Props.LgnD.

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