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  1. #61
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    Quote Originally Posted by papipapsmanny View Post
    my evidence is their ERAs, and ERA+

    Beckett give up fewer hits and homeruns per nine innings, their walk rates are the same. The only thing lester has is more Ks per nine innings.

    Okay so tRA is saying that lester should be better than beckett right now... well he isn't.
    Your evidence is ERA and ERA+? This is a Sabermetrics forum; not the main MLB forum. Come on now.

    Beckett giving up fewer hits has absolutely nothing to do with anything. tRA doesn't care about how many hits a pitcher gives up, and that's the whole point of DIPS theory. The pitcher doesn't control how many balls in play against them are converted into outs. Lester has a .340 BABIP against him, when he's typically in the .290 range. What does that tell us?

    More hits are falling in than usual. That doesn't mean that Lester's not as good as Beckett, just that more hits are falling in. That's something Lester doesn't have control over.

    Beckett has a LD% of 22.4 as compared to Lester's 20.5. That means hitters are making harder contact against Beckett than they are with Lester. Lester's also striking out 4.3% more hitters faced than Beckett is, while maintaining a slightly lower walk rate.

    You're complaining about a metric that has Jonathan Lester as being 0.1 Runs Above Average better than Josh Beckett. Talk about nitpicking.
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  2. #62
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    im not nitpicking its that fact that it has Lester above beckett at all in the first place. I never said Lester isn't as good as beckett, but he hasn't done as well as him.

    yeah more hits are falling in for lester because he isn't pitching as well. Everyone keeps making good contact lester wheter its a linedrive or a really hard grounder up the middle or through the hole. Or the fact that he is on pace to give up about 26 or 27 homeruns.

    again its why I don't like tRA nothing should be expected to happen based off certain numbers thats why the game is played
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  3. #63
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    Quote Originally Posted by papipapsmanny View Post
    again its why I don't like tRA nothing should be expected to happen based off certain numbers thats why the game is played
    Then why the hell do you bother asking questions about tRA if you've already made up your mind?
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  4. #64
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    again im not going to agree with everything in here if i did what would be the point of posting?
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  5. #65
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    Quote Originally Posted by papipapsmanny View Post
    again im not going to agree with everything in here if i did what would be the point of posting?
    If you don't agree with something, at least provide sound evidence as to why you disagree with it. Don't cite an archaic statistic that everyone knows is extremely flawed to prove your point. You're arguing because tRA says that Jonathan Lester is 0.1 runs better than Josh Beckett. Not 1 run, not 5 runs, not 10 runs. 0.1 runs.
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  6. #66
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    Quote Originally Posted by papipapsmanny View Post
    im not nitpicking its that fact that it has Lester above beckett at all in the first place. I never said Lester isn't as good as beckett, but he hasn't done as well as him.

    yeah more hits are falling in for lester because he isn't pitching as well. Everyone keeps making good contact lester wheter its a linedrive or a really hard grounder up the middle or through the hole. Or the fact that he is on pace to give up about 26 or 27 homeruns.

    again its why I don't like tRA nothing should be expected to happen based off certain numbers thats why the game is played
    You have no proof of this.

  7. #67
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    Quote Originally Posted by papipapsmanny View Post
    im not nitpicking its that fact that it has Lester above beckett at all in the first place. I never said Lester isn't as good as beckett, but he hasn't done as well as him.

    yeah more hits are falling in for lester because he isn't pitching as well. Everyone keeps making good contact lester wheter its a linedrive or a really hard grounder up the middle or through the hole. Or the fact that he is on pace to give up about 26 or 27 homeruns.

    again its why I don't like tRA nothing should be expected to happen based off certain numbers thats why the game is played
    Players are obviously not making good contact off of him given his great K rates. He suffered a ridiculously high BABIP the first two months of the season. I remember it was around the .400 mark because I used that as one of the reasons not to worry about him earlier this year. That has come down which has resulted in him having much better end results this month. He was also giving up a ridiculously high amount of home runs per fly balls during the first few months of the season. I remember that it was around 1 home run for every 4 fly balls at one point this season. That decreased, like expected as the season went on. He only has given up two home runs in June vs 11 in April and May.

    And of course things can be predicted based off of certain numbers in and outside of baseball. These types of things are why the Red Sox have become such a power house since the new ownership has been put into place.

  8. #68
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gigantes4Life View Post
    You have no proof of this.
    yes i do whether "luckier" or not beckett has outproduced lester.

    tRA doesnt really show how a pitcher has produced. It just shows really what was supposed to happen or expected to happen.

    the name of the game is for a pitcher is to not give up runs and in that aspect beckett has done much better than lester thus far.

    While I will agree tRA does help determine which pitcher will get better moving forward, although I trust it from season to season rather than month to month.

    For instance I didn't need tRA to let me know Lester was going to get and continue to get better this season, because like you said his K rates are great and he proved last season that he can really pitch.
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  9. #69
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    Quote Originally Posted by -Lavigne43- View Post
    Players are obviously not making good contact off of him given his great K rates. He suffered a ridiculously high BABIP the first two months of the season. I remember it was around the .400 mark because I used that as one of the reasons not to worry about him earlier this year. That has come down which has resulted in him having much better end results this month. He was also giving up a ridiculously high amount of home runs per fly balls during the first few months of the season. I remember that it was around 1 home run for every 4 fly balls at one point this season. That decreased, like expected as the season went on. He only has given up two home runs in June vs 11 in April and May.

    And of course things can be predicted based off of certain numbers in and outside of baseball. These types of things are why the Red Sox have become such a power house since the new ownership has been put into place.
    there is a difference between making good contact and no contact. Especially earlier this season when people were making contact they were creaming him.
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  10. #70
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    Yet people are hitting Beckett harder than they are hitting Lester.

  11. #71
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    Quote Originally Posted by papipapsmanny View Post
    yes i do whether "luckier" or not beckett has outproduced lester.
    You're giving me a headache. Please, for the love of God, use some analysis instead of using the ERA argument. This isn't the main MLB forum. This is the Sabermetrics forum.
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  12. #72
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    Quote Originally Posted by papipapsmanny View Post
    there is a difference between making good contact and no contact. Especially earlier this season when people were making contact they were creaming him.
    Just out of honest curiosity, did you read his entire post, or just the first sentence?


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  13. #73
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    Quote Originally Posted by papipapsmanny View Post
    tRA doesnt really show how a pitcher has produced. It just shows really what was supposed to happen or expected to happen.
    How many times does someone have to explain this concept for you to comprehend this? BB data is based off events of actual baseball games in real life....it isn't some made up statistic that just pulls numbers out of mid air.

  14. #74
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    papipapsmanny thinks tRA is based off of Baseball Mogul.

  15. #75
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    Quote Originally Posted by quiksilver2491 View Post
    How many times does someone have to explain this concept for you to comprehend this? BB data is based off events of actual baseball games in real life....it isn't some made up statistic that just pulls numbers out of mid air.
    For all the times we've tried to explain DIPS to him, he can't seem to wrap his head around it. It's one thing to dislike DIPS, but it's another thing entirely to dismiss it simply because one can't understand it.
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