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  1. #16
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    Here's my WAR thread:

    http://www.prosportsdaily.com/forums...d.php?t=263993

    But, if you really want to understand WAR, read these two posts (one is for pitcher's, and the other is hitter's):

    Pitcher WAR

    Position Player WAR

  2. #17
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rylinkus View Post
    Is that the fangraph formula or the SC one?

    Actually, I'll expand. Fangraphs uses a different wOBA formula than Statcorner. Which one is the better one in people's opinions? And why? Perhaps this isn't a simple question and warrants it's own thread.
    Because Fangraphs incorporates SBs and CSs, and does not incorporate NIBB and ROE (or one of the two; I forgot). SC does not incorporate baserunning, and does incorporate NIBB and ROE.

    Basically, SC sticks with the original wOBA formula. The NIBB and ROE part is really not too much of a problem, though; it's the base-stealing. I don't feel it has a place in a hitting metric.

    Plus, Fangraphs doesn't park-adjust wOBA. It parks adjust wRAA, which is the counting metric based off of wOBA. SC does have a park-adjusted version of wOBA, and a counting version.

    It does bring up the issue with Saber stuff. .BA is, well .BA. Everyone computes it the same way. The fact that wOBA fluctuates in the way it's acquired probably turns some people off to the concept.
    Yeah, I agree. I meant to post this at The Book Blog, but I forgot to.
    Last edited by Seamhead; 06-22-2009 at 05:04 PM.

  3. #18
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    Quote Originally Posted by Seamhead View Post
    And run expectancy = move over value (slugging in a way) + get on-base value (OBP).

    It's context-neutral, meaning it doesn't take into account any type of situation. It's just the marginal value of the event given a neutral environment.
    Yeah, good point. Most run expectancy charts talk about the environment, so how many outs and runner on there are, but wOBA doesn't. That's an important distinction.


  4. #19
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    How exactly does FIP and tRA work? What are they measuring and why is it better than ERA?
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  5. #20
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    Quote Originally Posted by jetsfan89 View Post
    How exactly does FIP and tRA work? What are they measuring and why is it better than ERA?
    FIP is based just on strikeouts, walks, hit batters, and homeruns allowed. Those are in general the main things a pitcher has under their control. It attempts to take defense out of the equation. I don't like it too much because it ignores things like GB/FB ratio, and also shortchanges the rare guy that can sustain a below average hit rate regardless of defense.

    tRA takes FIP a step further. It I believe attaches run values to batted ball types, ground balls, fly balls, line drives, strikeouts, homers, etc., and calculates expected ERA based on those.


  6. #21
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    It's not ERA. It'd just be RA.

  7. #22
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    Quote Originally Posted by jetsfan89 View Post
    How exactly does FIP and tRA work? What are they measuring and why is it better than ERA?
    JB explained it basically. Both stats eliminate defense, as FIP's definition is "a measure of all those things for which a pitcher is specifically responsible."

    They're measuring the same thing ERA does, runs allowed (tRA is on a slightly different scale). The reason they're better than ERA is because ERA fluctuates too much. ERA and WHIP depend on defense too much, as well as park factors and in small sample sizes, luck. Over time ERA isn't a terrible statistic, and for team ERA over a season, it's team-dependent as it looks at pitchers and their defense.

  8. #23
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    Will it account for groundball pitchers who don't strike out a ton of guys but get lots of grounders?
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  9. #24
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    What do you mean? Groundballs provide the smallest run expectancy for balls in play (with the exception of infield pop-ups of course), so it wouldn't be a terrible thing. It depends on your definition of "a ton" and "lots". Give me a pitcher for example.

  10. #25
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    Never mind I understand. Thanks alot guys
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  11. #26
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    Creating a sticky thread of all the formulas for different stats would be pretty sweet (Even real basic stuff like OBP and SLG). It could be something that would be locked and stickied, where whoever creates it could just post the different formulas and people could use it as a reference.

    I really understand this stuff a lot better when i see the formulas laid out, i have a feeling im not the only one.
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  12. #27
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gigantes4Life View Post
    What do you mean? Groundballs provide the smallest run expectancy for balls in play (with the exception of infield pop-ups of course), so it wouldn't be a terrible thing. It depends on your definition of "a ton" and "lots". Give me a pitcher for example.
    I'm a little confused on that, actually. In the explanation, FIP was derived from strikeouts, walks, hit batters, and homeruns. If you have a pitcher that predominately gives up ground balls, does he get shortchanged?

    I guess it depends on whether a ground ball pitcher is really that much better than a fly ball pitcher. The conventional wisdom says that he is, but are they really more effective? If so, it would seem that FIP doesn't give them credit for that effectiveness. If not, I suppose it's a moot point.

    Reading the post further, are these just natural criticisms of FIP that tRA address?

  13. #28
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    Whats a sabermetric?

  14. #29
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    Quote Originally Posted by whitesoxfan83 View Post
    Creating a sticky thread of all the formulas for different stats would be pretty sweet (Even real basic stuff like OBP and SLG). It could be something that would be locked and stickied, where whoever creates it could just post the different formulas and people could use it as a reference.

    I really understand this stuff a lot better when i see the formulas laid out, i have a feeling im not the only one.
    That shall be done, I'll maybe post them in the glossaries thread and then someone can edit them into the OP.

    Quote Originally Posted by k_rock923 View Post
    I'm a little confused on that, actually. In the explanation, FIP was derived from strikeouts, walks, hit batters, and homeruns. If you have a pitcher that predominately gives up ground balls, does he get shortchanged?

    I guess it depends on whether a ground ball pitcher is really that much better than a fly ball pitcher. The conventional wisdom says that he is, but are they really more effective? If so, it would seem that FIP doesn't give them credit for that effectiveness. If not, I suppose it's a moot point.

    Reading the post further, are these just natural criticisms of FIP that tRA address?
    Yes that was my mistake, I was thinking in terms of tRA. Yes, FIP is weak because it doesn't account for those things, and you're exactly correct - tRA takes it one step further.

  15. #30
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    Seriously though, what is tRA? I use it, but honestly I dont know what it means.

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