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  1. #406
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    Quote Originally Posted by 3mikee_ View Post
    This might seem like the stupidest question in the world, but I've never really been into this whole Sabermetrics thing, but what on earth is WAR... i hear it everywhere on these forums but I've never heard of it on TV/radio or w.e
    Wins Above Replacement - http://www.fangraphs.com/library/index.php/misc/war/

  2. #407
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    Quote Originally Posted by metsfan4ever View Post
    i got a question, someone once told me this

    hr: influenced by the park he plays in and the lineup around him
    rbi: influenced by having a great lineup around him where guys are always on base
    runs: influenced by having guys behind him to drive him in

    basically these stats are more team driven and/or influenced by the environment the hitter plays in


    So how do you rate a batter if its not threw these stats
    The important thing is to not to judge a guy just based on one stat. You have to take into account everything he has done.

    The two best offensive stats are probably wOBA and wRC+

    wOBA -
    Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA) is based on a simple concept: not all hits are created equal. Batting average would have you believe they are, but think about it: what’s more valuable, a single or a homerun?
    wOBA is on the same scale as OBP.

    wRC+ -
    Weighted Runs Creatd. This way, instead of looking at a player’s line and listing out all the details (e.g. 23 2B, 15 HR, 55 BB, 110 K, 19 SB, 5 CS), you could synthesize all the information into one metric and say, “Player x was worth 24 runs to his team last year.”
    wRC+ is on the same scale as OPS+


    For pure power numbers HR's are still a fair way to measure at least IMO. Also ISO(Isolated Power) is a good one. All ISO is, is SLG%-AVG. So it subtracts all the singles included in average, and gives you an idea how many extra base hits a guy has.

  3. #408
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    Quote Originally Posted by carson005 View Post
    For pure power numbers HR's are still a fair way to measure at least IMO. Also ISO(Isolated Power) is a good one. All ISO is, is SLG%-AVG. So it subtracts all the singles included in average, and gives you an idea how many extra base hits a guy has.
    This kind of comes down how you want to define power. Is it just "can they blast it out of the park" or is it "can they hit it hard all over the field." If it's the latter I'd take the guy with higher SLG and ISO anyday.

  4. #409
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    Quote Originally Posted by OneTuzSea View Post
    This kind of comes down how you want to define power. Is it just "can they blast it out of the park" or is it "can they hit it hard all over the field." If it's the latter I'd take the guy with higher SLG and ISO anyday.
    Well just for a very extreme example but do you think Shane Victorino(slg % of .544) is a better power hitter than Adrian Gonzalez or Albert Pujols(.542 and .541 respectfully)?

    SLG counts extra bases hits as "slugging" when really a triple is more likely the product of a fast player than a slugging player(these fast players can also leg out doubles).

  5. #410
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    Is there a way to know how much a players stats will decline with his BABIP? Mainly I'm talking Mike Carp. When his .391 BABIP finally starts to plummett (maybe not until next year?) is it a near 1:1 thing, or does it vary so much that you can really predict it?

  6. #411
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    Quote Originally Posted by OneTuzSea View Post
    Is there a way to know how much a players stats will decline with his BABIP? Mainly I'm talking Mike Carp. When his .391 BABIP finally starts to plummett (maybe not until next year?) is it a near 1:1 thing, or does it vary so much that you can really predict it?
    Some players have their BABIP stabilize somewhere away from .300. There's much less luck involved in batter BABIP than pitcher BABIP but Carp doesn't have near enough ABs to say anything with confidence. He doesn't have great speed and his LD% is unsustainably high this year so you can expect his BABIP to drop considerably. If you want to look at his performance as a whole, his HR/FB is probably a little fluky so you can expect that to drop as well.

    In short, he's playing well over his head right now.

  7. #412
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    Quote Originally Posted by ugafan227 View Post
    Some players have their BABIP stabilize somewhere away from .300. There's much less luck involved in batter BABIP than pitcher BABIP but Carp doesn't have near enough ABs to say anything with confidence. He doesn't have great speed and his LD% is unsustainably high this year so you can expect his BABIP to drop considerably. If you want to look at his performance as a whole, his HR/FB is probably a little fluky so you can expect that to drop as well.

    In short, he's playing well over his head right now.
    Oh, I'm fully aware he's playing waaaaay over his head. I was just wondering if there's any way to say "His BABIP will probably drop by X, which will land his average at about" or something similar. But I'm getting the impression looking around that you can't really predict it's just kind of a you know he's going to drop sort of thing.

    I just want some sort of hope that one young player on this team besides Ackley can be great

  8. #413
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    A few days ago, Jason Heyward's UZR was at like 2.0 and now it's at 9.2 so my question is:
    WTF?

  9. #414
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    Quote Originally Posted by ugafan227 View Post
    A few days ago, Jason Heyward's UZR was at like 2.0 and now it's at 9.2 so my question is:
    WTF?
    I don't know what exactly they were, but it seems like they did some fairly significant updates between their second to last update and their final update. I noticed several Cubs players had pretty significant swings too.


  10. #415
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    Hopefully you all don't laugh me out of town here with my first question...

    Is there a saber stat that accounts for situational hitting?

    Meaning hitting with a man in scoring position in a close game is slightly different then hitting in the same situation when it's a blow out. Something that takes into account pitcher faced (ie scrub vs Ace), game importance (i know subjective).

    "clutchiness" for lack of a better term.

    Something that can accurately remove some of the players who are basically stat compilers and expose how they truly hit. (ie Arod / Teix / Swisher).

    Thanks in advance!

  11. #416
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    Quote Originally Posted by Archishot View Post
    Hopefully you all don't laugh me out of town here with my first question...

    Is there a saber stat that accounts for situational hitting?

    Meaning hitting with a man in scoring position in a close game is slightly different then hitting in the same situation when it's a blow out. Something that takes into account pitcher faced (ie scrub vs Ace), game importance (i know subjective).

    "clutchiness" for lack of a better term.

    Something that can accurately remove some of the players who are basically stat compilers and expose how they truly hit. (ie Arod / Teix / Swisher).

    Thanks in advance!
    There's WPA which is leverage-based.

    Explanation here:
    http://www.fangraphs.com/library/index.php/misc/wpa/

  12. #417
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    This is a weird question, but does anyone know about how many expected wins a team full of 0 WAR players would be expected to win. I'll admit I don't know a ton about advanced stats, but you always hear that so and so is 3 wins better than an average replacement player. So just for my curiosity, does anyone actually know the number of expected wins for a team full of 0 WAR players (and yes i realize this is completely hypothetical).

  13. #418
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    Quote Originally Posted by crewfan13 View Post
    This is a weird question, but does anyone know about how many expected wins a team full of 0 WAR players would be expected to win. I'll admit I don't know a ton about advanced stats, but you always hear that so and so is 3 wins better than an average replacement player. So just for my curiosity, does anyone actually know the number of expected wins for a team full of 0 WAR players (and yes i realize this is completely hypothetical).
    Complete guess from memory, but I think it's like 60?

  14. #419
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    I just read through this entire thread. I have a lot of spare time on my hands right now so I figured I'd man up and get some of these statistics down.

    Seemed like the main pitching stat to use back when this thread started was tRA, now it seems FIP might have taken over. Is that the case? If so, why?

  15. #420
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    Quote Originally Posted by CubbieSteve View Post
    I just read through this entire thread. I have a lot of spare time on my hands right now so I figured I'd man up and get some of these statistics down.

    Seemed like the main pitching stat to use back when this thread started was tRA, now it seems FIP might have taken over. Is that the case? If so, why?
    I'd say one is more closely related to skill, and the other to results/luck/a little less based on the pitchers actual skill.

    Basically I see FIP as more closely related to what the pitcher can likely repeat and tRA is more based on what happens.

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