All this shows me is that you've never bothered to spend the time to research WAR when others have sent you links otherwise you wouldn't ask questions like that.
Last edited by metswon69; 01-08-2017 at 01:22 AM.
The way you are talking to me is like how some young drummer asking me a question how to play linear patterns over the bar line and I tell them it's just in a line and to go home and practice.
What's just as frustrating is someone being overly critical of something they haven't even spent the time trying to understand.
Last edited by metswon69; 01-08-2017 at 06:59 PM.
We get inpatient with nonsense.
You are looking to poke holes in the stat that has been around along while now. The stat isn't perfect, but it's damn good.
Ozzie Smith produced Hall of Fame caliber WAR totals while posting a career 90 wRC+
9th in fWAR from 78-96 and 287th in wRC+ out of 356 qualifying hitters.
He was a good base runner and defender, but couldn't hit.
I'm assuming by Gonzalez, you mean Juan Gonzalez in 1998.
Juan Long Gone had a 145 wRC+ in 669 PA and had a -2 Total Zone defensive rating, while playing right field, which has a slightly positive defensive rating
A-Rod compiled another 3 wins because while his bat was weaker (135 wRC+), he did have another 80 PA, played elite defense (+8) at the top of the defensive spectrum and ran the bases well.
All told, it's worth about another 3 wins.
Consider this alone.
A-Rod created 132 runs with the bat, 8 runs with the glove, 8 runs with his positional adjustment, and 4 runs with his base running.
That's 152 runs
Gonzalez created 129 runs with the bat, lost 2 runs with the glove but made up for those 2 runs with his positional adjustment and was about neutral in base running.
All told, he was only worth his 129 runs he created with the bat, which is 23 runs less than A-Rod created for his team by doing other things than just hitting.
In 1998, a win was worth about 7 runs. So a 23 run differential would be worth about 3 wins. If it's not exactly right, it's understandable. It's 1998 and we weren't tracking things like we are now. Defense was harder to measure.
Feck, I'm not one to tell you how to do things. But constantly crying victim about the way people talk to you won't endure you any fans. It's an online forum. Communication is left without the non-verbals. What we are discussing is simply black and white text about baseball. Nobody has any bias or disrespect for you.
I have no other problems nor do I see any attitudes outside of a few *******s here or there in any other forum I participate in. These are not just music related forums either as I don't see this attitude in the Baseball Fever forum.
Many showed their true colors when I first mentioned the taboo of RBI way back when. It was like I was a 1920's stage actor getting rotten fruit and monkey **** thrown at me. No explanation, just aggression like so many Internet tough guys have. But I rolled with it, just like I did with many of the ******* football players in my high school (I went to a school that 4 NFL players came out of in a 10yr period, one I graduated with) and did not let these attitudes affect my interest. I just marked it off as douchebag jock mentality.
But whatever, we move on....
Hi PSD guys! New here, cool little community.
Just had a quick question about using projected WAR figures. In particular the PECOTA WARP figures from Baseball Prospectus (or if others such as Fangraphs apply).
Context: I'm creating a simple model to compare to game lines for betting purposes and will be including individual player WAR figures in my calculations.
Question: I can login to Baseball Prospectus right now and get projected WAR figures for upcoming 2017. If I wanted to back test previous season (2011 through to 2015) with my model and use projected WAR Figures (like the current 2017) ones how would I do it? I would assume that all historical WARP figures on BP currently are their actual results from the seasons and not their projected? Is there somewhere that I can gather historical projected WAR figures (prior to season start)?
Or am i way off base here and the WARP figures on BP are the same as the projected from the relevant season? (i don't think this is the case).
Appreciate any guidance. Thanks