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  1. #766
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    Quote Originally Posted by thefeckcampaign View Post
    To have twice the WAR? That seems like a lot, no?

    If that's the case, then wouldn't you think more defensive specialists like Ozzie and Omar have a boatload more than they do?

    What is the breakdown?
    It wasn't twice the WAR and no, to me, it doesn't seem like a lot. Plenty of defensive specialists carry high WAR totals....especially if they can hit at all.
    Last edited by spliff(TONE); 01-08-2017 at 02:31 AM.

    "there's no scraps in my scrapbook"

  2. #767
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    Quote Originally Posted by thefeckcampaign View Post
    Will someone explain to me how Alex Rodriguez' WAR almost doubled that of Gonzalez' in í98 yet Gonzalez beat him in average, doubles, slugging, and OPS.?
    Positional adjustments also matter. SS (league wide) wasn't an offensive position until fairly recently. Corner OFers, on the other hand have always been an offense first position.

    All this shows me is that you've never bothered to spend the time to research WAR when others have sent you links otherwise you wouldn't ask questions like that.
    Last edited by metswon69; 01-08-2017 at 02:22 AM.

  3. #768
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    Quote Originally Posted by metswon69 View Post
    (null)
    So instead of answering a simple question with a bit more than it's defense, you'd rather reprimand me. Wow. Some of you guys are such.....

    The way you are talking to me is like how some young drummer asking me a question how to play linear patterns over the bar line and I tell them it's just in a line and to go home and practice.
    Quote Originally Posted by Crucis View Post
    Parity is about equality of opportunity, not equality of results.

  4. #769
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    Quote Originally Posted by thefeckcampaign View Post
    So instead of answering a simple question with a bit more than it's defense, you'd rather reprimand me. Wow. Some of you guys are such.....

    The way you are talking to me is like how some young drummer asking me a question how to play linear patterns over the bar line and I tell them it's just in a line and to go home and practice.
    You've been on this forum for 10 years and WAR is something that has come up maybe thousands of times, right? I can't believe you would still be a novice on the matter when I'm sure Jeffy and others have linked Fangraphs a ridiculous amount times on this forum to how WAR works.

    What's just as frustrating is someone being overly critical of something they haven't even spent the time trying to understand.
    Last edited by metswon69; 01-08-2017 at 07:59 PM.

  5. #770
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    Quote Originally Posted by thefeckcampaign View Post
    So instead of answering a simple question with a bit more than it's defense, you'd rather reprimand me. Wow. Some of you guys are such.....

    The way you are talking to me is like how some young drummer asking me a question how to play linear patterns over the bar line and I tell them it's just in a line and to go home and practice.
    Ya know, not everybody is 'disrespectful' to you. You just pile drive the same nonsense and refuse to take the time to understand/read what you don't understand.

    We get inpatient with nonsense.

    You are looking to poke holes in the stat that has been around along while now. The stat isn't perfect, but it's damn good.


    Ozzie Smith produced Hall of Fame caliber WAR totals while posting a career 90 wRC+

    9th in fWAR from 78-96 and 287th in wRC+ out of 356 qualifying hitters.

    He was a good base runner and defender, but couldn't hit.

    I'm assuming by Gonzalez, you mean Juan Gonzalez in 1998.

    Juan Long Gone had a 145 wRC+ in 669 PA and had a -2 Total Zone defensive rating, while playing right field, which has a slightly positive defensive rating

    A-Rod compiled another 3 wins because while his bat was weaker (135 wRC+), he did have another 80 PA, played elite defense (+8) at the top of the defensive spectrum and ran the bases well.

    All told, it's worth about another 3 wins.

    Consider this alone.
    A-Rod created 132 runs with the bat, 8 runs with the glove, 8 runs with his positional adjustment, and 4 runs with his base running.
    That's 152 runs

    Gonzalez created 129 runs with the bat, lost 2 runs with the glove but made up for those 2 runs with his positional adjustment and was about neutral in base running.
    All told, he was only worth his 129 runs he created with the bat, which is 23 runs less than A-Rod created for his team by doing other things than just hitting.

    In 1998, a win was worth about 7 runs. So a 23 run differential would be worth about 3 wins. If it's not exactly right, it's understandable. It's 1998 and we weren't tracking things like we are now. Defense was harder to measure.


    Feck, I'm not one to tell you how to do things. But constantly crying victim about the way people talk to you won't endure you any fans. It's an online forum. Communication is left without the non-verbals. What we are discussing is simply black and white text about baseball. Nobody has any bias or disrespect for you.

  6. #771
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jeffy25 View Post
    Ya know, not everybody is 'disrespectful' to you. You just pile drive the same nonsense and refuse to take the time to understand/read what you don't understand.

    We get inpatient with nonsense.

    You are looking to poke holes in the stat that has been around along while now. The stat isn't perfect, but it's damn good.


    Ozzie Smith produced Hall of Fame caliber WAR totals while posting a career 90 wRC+

    9th in fWAR from 78-96 and 287th in wRC+ out of 356 qualifying hitters.

    He was a good base runner and defender, but couldn't hit.

    I'm assuming by Gonzalez, you mean Juan Gonzalez in 1998.

    Juan Long Gone had a 145 wRC+ in 669 PA and had a -2 Total Zone defensive rating, while playing right field, which has a slightly positive defensive rating

    A-Rod compiled another 3 wins because while his bat was weaker (135 wRC+), he did have another 80 PA, played elite defense (+8) at the top of the defensive spectrum and ran the bases well.

    All told, it's worth about another 3 wins.

    Consider this alone.
    A-Rod created 132 runs with the bat, 8 runs with the glove, 8 runs with his positional adjustment, and 4 runs with his base running.
    That's 152 runs

    Gonzalez created 129 runs with the bat, lost 2 runs with the glove but made up for those 2 runs with his positional adjustment and was about neutral in base running.
    All told, he was only worth his 129 runs he created with the bat, which is 23 runs less than A-Rod created for his team by doing other things than just hitting.

    In 1998, a win was worth about 7 runs. So a 23 run differential would be worth about 3 wins. If it's not exactly right, it's understandable. It's 1998 and we weren't tracking things like we are now. Defense was harder to measure.


    Feck, I'm not one to tell you how to do things. But constantly crying victim about the way people talk to you won't endure you any fans. It's an online forum. Communication is left without the non-verbals. What we are discussing is simply black and white text about baseball. Nobody has any bias or disrespect for you.
    I appreciate the explanation.

    I have no other problems nor do I see any attitudes outside of a few *******s here or there in any other forum I participate in. These are not just music related forums either as I don't see this attitude in the Baseball Fever forum.

    Many showed their true colors when I first mentioned the taboo of RBI way back when. It was like I was a 1920's stage actor getting rotten fruit and monkey **** thrown at me. No explanation, just aggression like so many Internet tough guys have. But I rolled with it, just like I did with many of the ******* football players in my high school (I went to a school that 4 NFL players came out of in a 10yr period, one I graduated with) and did not let these attitudes affect my interest. I just marked it off as douchebag jock mentality.

    But whatever, we move on....

    Quote Originally Posted by metswon69 View Post
    (null)
    I'm still not a fan of all inclusive stats. The only reason I asked is because I included it in research of MVP's which I posted here, due to so many of you liking it, and '98 was the only year that seemed to have such a dramatic flip.
    Quote Originally Posted by Crucis View Post
    Parity is about equality of opportunity, not equality of results.

  7. #772
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    Hi PSD guys! New here, cool little community.

    Just had a quick question about using projected WAR figures. In particular the PECOTA WARP figures from Baseball Prospectus (or if others such as Fangraphs apply).

    Context: I'm creating a simple model to compare to game lines for betting purposes and will be including individual player WAR figures in my calculations.

    Question: I can login to Baseball Prospectus right now and get projected WAR figures for upcoming 2017. If I wanted to back test previous season (2011 through to 2015) with my model and use projected WAR Figures (like the current 2017) ones how would I do it? I would assume that all historical WARP figures on BP currently are their actual results from the seasons and not their projected? Is there somewhere that I can gather historical projected WAR figures (prior to season start)?

    Or am i way off base here and the WARP figures on BP are the same as the projected from the relevant season? (i don't think this is the case).

    Appreciate any guidance. Thanks

  8. #773
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    I haven't watched this in awhile. Wow is Hawk bad.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hXYvc1JGcgo

  9. #774
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    Stats will always improve a roster if used effectively.

  10. #775
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    The funny thing to me is that stats only quantify what the "eye test" is doing. People act like they're measuring separate things - not the case at all. The "eye test" will say a pitcher giving up line drive after line drive but no runs because they're at people is getting lucky... that's what stats like FIP attach numbers to. That's what BABIP attempts to measure as a predictor of future success. It's not exactly apples vs. oranges here. In the end it's all about measuring who's the best baseball player.

    Where I do think there's some disconnect is that stats are inherently based on large sample sizes to be extremely useful while wins and losses inherently come from limited one game sample sizes. Player X might be a better hitter than Player Y but if player X struggles vs. curveballs then you probably would rather go with player Y vs. a pitcher known for his curve. Player X might be the better overall hitter but with a runner on 3rd you probably just want the higher average, not the overall package. Stats don't always capture the specifics of those one-off situations but games often are decided by those.


    NE Patriots Forum HOF (Class of 2011)

  11. #776
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    Is there a HR+ stat, average HR compared to their era? I would like to see that.

  12. #777
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    Quote Originally Posted by hugepatsfan View Post
    Where I do think there's some disconnect is that stats are inherently based on large sample sizes to be extremely useful while wins and losses inherently come from limited one game sample sizes. Player X might be a better hitter than Player Y but if player X struggles vs. curveballs then you probably would rather go with player Y vs. a pitcher known for his curve. Player X might be the better overall hitter but with a runner on 3rd you probably just want the higher average, not the overall package. Stats don't always capture the specifics of those one-off situations but games often are decided by those.
    This I agree with. Unless there is a stat that breaks it down that I donít know about, pitching to the situation is a prime example. In order to save the wear on their arms, pitchers that may not bear down due to having a large lead is an example. As well, thereís also the sacrifice of hitting to the right side of the field in order to move a runner over is not something I see listed as a sacrifice.

    If I am wrong, share it with me.

  13. #778
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    Quote Originally Posted by thefeckcampaign View Post
    Is there a HR+ stat, average HR compared to their era? I would like to see that.
    Not that I know of, best bet is to take the home run total per PA, and compare that to the league total of HR/PA


    For example
    Mike Moustakas hit 38 HR in 2017 in 598 PA (1 every 15.74 PA)
    The AL hit 3170 HR in 92622 PA (1 every 29.22 PA)

    In 2016, Moose hit 7 HR in 113 PA (1 every 16.14 PA)
    The AL that year hit 2953 HR in 92040 PA (1 every 31.17 PA)

    And create ratios based on that.

  14. #779
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    Quote Originally Posted by thefeckcampaign View Post
    This I agree with. Unless there is a stat that breaks it down that I donít know about, pitching to the situation is a prime example. In order to save the wear on their arms, pitchers that may not bear down due to having a large lead is an example. As well, thereís also the sacrifice of hitting to the right side of the field in order to move a runner over is not something I see listed as a sacrifice.

    If I am wrong, share it with me.
    I don't disagree with the premise. Efficient outs are ideal for pitchers with big leads.

    The only issue is finding any data that supports these theories.....as in, the game sees an affect from this process.

  15. #780
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jeffy25 View Post
    Not that I know of, best bet is to take the home run total per PA, and compare that to the league total of HR/PA


    For example
    Mike Moustakas hit 38 HR in 2017 in 598 PA (1 every 15.74 PA)
    The AL hit 3170 HR in 92622 PA (1 every 29.22 PA)

    In 2016, Moose hit 7 HR in 113 PA (1 every 16.14 PA)
    The AL that year hit 2953 HR in 92040 PA (1 every 31.17 PA)

    And create ratios based on that.
    Cool outlook, but not really what I was looking for. I was wanting to see say what Sosaís seasonal & career home run totals compared to his field, as in 25 HR would be the average that particular year or his career span. In turn, make it 100 like they do with OPS+ so it can show how little value that has compared to 25 HR hit by a player would be in the 70ís, 80ís, and today as the seasonal or career average for that era may only be 13.

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