Sabermetrics School and Analysis

[OneTuzSea]

Is there a way to know how much a players stats will decline with his BABIP? Mainly I'm talking Mike Carp. When his .391 BABIP finally starts to plummett (maybe not until next year?) is it a near 1:1 thing, or does it vary so much that you can really predict it?

[ugafan]

Is there a way to know how much a players stats will decline with his BABIP? Mainly I'm talking Mike Carp. When his .391 BABIP finally starts to plummett (maybe not until next year?) is it a near 1:1 thing, or does it vary so much that you can really predict it?

Some players have their BABIP stabilize somewhere away from .300. There's much less luck involved in batter BABIP than pitcher BABIP but Carp doesn't have near enough ABs to say anything with confidence. He doesn't have great speed and his LD% is unsustainably high this year so you can expect his BABIP to drop considerably. If you want to look at his performance as a whole, his HR/FB is probably a little fluky so you can expect that to drop as well.

In short, he's playing well over his head right now.

[OneTuzSea]

Some players have their BABIP stabilize somewhere away from .300. There's much less luck involved in batter BABIP than pitcher BABIP but Carp doesn't have near enough ABs to say anything with confidence. He doesn't have great speed and his LD% is unsustainably high this year so you can expect his BABIP to drop considerably. If you want to look at his performance as a whole, his HR/FB is probably a little fluky so you can expect that to drop as well.

In short, he's playing well over his head right now.

Oh, I'm fully aware he's playing waaaaay over his head. I was just wondering if there's any way to say "His BABIP will probably drop by X, which will land his average at about" or something similar. But I'm getting the impression looking around that you can't really predict it's just kind of a you know he's going to drop sort of thing.

I just want some sort of hope that one young player on this team besides Ackley can be great

[ugafan]

A few days ago, Jason Heyward's UZR was at like 2.0 and now it's at 9.2 so my question is:
WTF?

[Jilly Bohnson]

A few days ago, Jason Heyward's UZR was at like 2.0 and now it's at 9.2 so my question is:
WTF?

I don't know what exactly they were, but it seems like they did some fairly significant updates between their second to last update and their final update. I noticed several Cubs players had pretty significant swings too.

[Archishot]

Hopefully you all don't laugh me out of town here with my first question...

Is there a saber stat that accounts for situational hitting?

Meaning hitting with a man in scoring position in a close game is slightly different then hitting in the same situation when it's a blow out. Something that takes into account pitcher faced (ie scrub vs Ace), game importance (i know subjective).

"clutchiness" for lack of a better term.

Something that can accurately remove some of the players who are basically stat compilers and expose how they truly hit. (ie Arod / Teix / Swisher).

Thanks in advance!

[ugafan]

Hopefully you all don't laugh me out of town here with my first question...

Is there a saber stat that accounts for situational hitting?

Meaning hitting with a man in scoring position in a close game is slightly different then hitting in the same situation when it's a blow out. Something that takes into account pitcher faced (ie scrub vs Ace), game importance (i know subjective).

"clutchiness" for lack of a better term.

Something that can accurately remove some of the players who are basically stat compilers and expose how they truly hit. (ie Arod / Teix / Swisher).

Thanks in advance!

There's WPA which is leverage-based.

Explanation here:
http://www.fangraphs.com/library/index.php/misc/wpa/

[OneTuzSea]

If anyone wants anymore glossaryness, MLB Network actually has a pretty decent one now: http://mlb.mlb.com/network/promotion...e_glossary.jsp. Gives a lot of lot of explanation in plain language too, which is nice.

[crewfan13]

This is a weird question, but does anyone know about how many expected wins a team full of 0 WAR players would be expected to win. I'll admit I don't know a ton about advanced stats, but you always hear that so and so is 3 wins better than an average replacement player. So just for my curiosity, does anyone actually know the number of expected wins for a team full of 0 WAR players (and yes i realize this is completely hypothetical).

[OneTuzSea]

This is a weird question, but does anyone know about how many expected wins a team full of 0 WAR players would be expected to win. I'll admit I don't know a ton about advanced stats, but you always hear that so and so is 3 wins better than an average replacement player. So just for my curiosity, does anyone actually know the number of expected wins for a team full of 0 WAR players (and yes i realize this is completely hypothetical).

Complete guess from memory, but I think it's like 60?

[CubbieSteve]

I just read through this entire thread. I have a lot of spare time on my hands right now so I figured I'd man up and get some of these statistics down.

Seemed like the main pitching stat to use back when this thread started was tRA, now it seems FIP might have taken over. Is that the case? If so, why?

[Jeffy25]

I just read through this entire thread. I have a lot of spare time on my hands right now so I figured I'd man up and get some of these statistics down.

Seemed like the main pitching stat to use back when this thread started was tRA, now it seems FIP might have taken over. Is that the case? If so, why?

I'd say one is more closely related to skill, and the other to results/luck/a little less based on the pitchers actual skill.

Basically I see FIP as more closely related to what the pitcher can likely repeat and tRA is more based on what happens.

[nyanks79]

I know this is probably going to be an unpopular question, especially in here, but for the past couple of years I have been in a pool where homeruns are the only thing that matters. Its a little more complicated then just drafting guys and going down the line, especially when you get towards the end. And you really have to get good value.

I havent fully embraced advanced stats though Im definitely not opposed to them. Just wondering if theres any stats or links that could be helpful other then simply HRs.

[Ted Gehrig]

Which is the order of rarest/hardest to hit in a 1 game by 1 player? 5 singles, 4 doubles, 3 home runs, 2 triples?

[RobertDominguez]

If I had to guess...

4 Doubles
5 Singles
2 Triples
3 Home Runs