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  1. #331
    Quote Originally Posted by hoggin88 View Post
    Alright I think I might have asked a long time ago and just forgot, so my apologies if this is a repeat question.

    I have seen people occasionally use the stat "xBABIP" to compare to the player's "BABIP". I understand the BABIP stat and everything, but I always wondered how accurate it really was. It seems to me that someone who is popping out to the infield and hitting dribblers is going to have a bad BABIP because they suck, not because they are unlucky.

    To my understanding, xBABIP is a stat that shows what the player's BABIP "should" be based on their percentages of line drives, ground balls, etc. Am I understanding this right? And if so, why don't people use it more often to put BABIP in some context? Fangraphs doesn't even seem to have it listed as a stat.

    Also, is the relation between these two stats similar to that between FIP and xFIP?
    There are multiple xBABIP calculators out there. The most popular one has an "r" of .59 between actual and predicted BABIP.

    The problem with using xBABIP for hitters is that hitters have more control over their BIP distribution than pitchers do. You're more likely to find hitters that can consistently post .330 BABIP marks despite having a league average batted ball rate than you are with pitchers.

    All xFIP does is normalize the home run rate to the league average.
    My blog- analysis of the San Francisco Giants, Baseball, and Sabermetrics.

  2. #332
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    Quote Originally Posted by C1Bman88 View Post
    There are multiple xBABIP calculators out there. The most popular one has an "r" of .59 between actual and predicted BABIP.

    The problem with using xBABIP for hitters is that hitters have more control over their BIP distribution than pitchers do. You're more likely to find hitters that can consistently post .330 BABIP marks despite having a league average batted ball rate than you are with pitchers.

    All xFIP does is normalize the home run rate to the league average.
    So how reliable do you consider BABIP to be, since there is no context involved in it? Because I often see people list someone's below average BABIP, claiming that the player is pretty much automatically bound to bounce back from their slump. How often might this BABIP be low because of poorly hit balls? I think it can be a useful stat, but I'm not sure how much stock to put in it.

  3. #333
    Quote Originally Posted by hoggin88 View Post
    So how reliable do you consider BABIP to be, since there is no context involved in it? Because I often see people list someone's below average BABIP, claiming that the player is pretty much automatically bound to bounce back from their slump. How often might this BABIP be low because of poorly hit balls? I think it can be a useful stat, but I'm not sure how much stock to put in it.
    Oftentimes you can look at a player's historical batted ball profile and see what his BABIP was, and then compare that to the season in question.

    It's useful, but I wouldn't put a *ton* of stock into it. I'd recommend you use it as a guide; not as a definitive measurement. Since it doesn't take into account the actual speed and location of the batted ball, it's really not going to be as accurate as we'd like it to be. But there's still some use for it.
    My blog- analysis of the San Francisco Giants, Baseball, and Sabermetrics.

  4. #334
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    is there a difference between tERA and tRA? i have seen both stats and heard them spoken in somewhat of the same context.

  5. #335
    Quote Originally Posted by d79cheese View Post
    is there a difference between tERA and tRA? i have seen both stats and heard them spoken in somewhat of the same context.
    tRA is akin to Runs Allowed per 9 Innings, while tERA is tRA but on the ERA scale. Think of it as tRA*0.92, where the 92% are all earned runs, and the remaining 8% are unearned.
    My blog- analysis of the San Francisco Giants, Baseball, and Sabermetrics.

  6. #336
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    Quote Originally Posted by C1Bman88 View Post
    tRA is akin to Runs Allowed per 9 Innings, while tERA is tRA but on the ERA scale. Think of it as tRA*0.92, where the 92% are all earned runs, and the remaining 8% are unearned.
    C1B, thanks for the info on xBABIP!

    And I'm curious now too, I remember when I first came to psd a couple years ago and didn't understand any of the advanced stats yet, people were listing tRA all over the place as the best pitching stat, whereas now I seem to see FIP the most and I haven't seen tRA in God knows how long. By the time I came around to the advanced stats tRA seemed to have gone by the wayside. Has the stat shown to be pretty flawed or something? Why did it die off so much?

  7. #337
    Quote Originally Posted by hoggin88 View Post
    C1B, thanks for the info on xBABIP!

    And I'm curious now too, I remember when I first came to psd a couple years ago and didn't understand any of the advanced stats yet, people were listing tRA all over the place as the best pitching stat, whereas now I seem to see FIP the most and I haven't seen tRA in God knows how long. By the time I came around to the advanced stats tRA seemed to have gone by the wayside. Has the stat shown to be pretty flawed or something? Why did it die off so much?
    There's nothing really wrong with tERA; it works slightly better than xFIP (if I remember right) when it comes to predicting future ERA. I'm not sure if it's better than SIERA, though. Some stats catch on more than others, and I think FIP is more popular due to the fact that we know the precise formula and because it's simple.

    One potential problem with tRA is that it uses linear weights to estimate runs allowed (that said, so does FIP). While there's nothing terribly wrong with that, you'd probably be better suited with an estimator like BaseRuns for estimating runs allowed by pitchers.
    My blog- analysis of the San Francisco Giants, Baseball, and Sabermetrics.

  8. #338
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    Pretty sure xFIP is better at predicting ERA than tRA.

    I believe the order was xFIP, tRA, FIP and then ERA in a THT article I read a while back.

  9. #339
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    I detest saber metrics. This is still a game right.
    P(NBA)S(NBA)D. Yeah we sometimes talk about other sports.

  10. #340
    Quote Originally Posted by magichatnumber9 View Post
    I detest saber metrics. This is still a game right.
    I detest trolls. This is a forum for fans of sabermetrics, right?
    My blog- analysis of the San Francisco Giants, Baseball, and Sabermetrics.

  11. #341
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    OK so I made this video of what it is like when a saber guy and traditional baseball fan argue about something. Wanted your guys' opinion on it:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z3zuwF15Ios

    08' Phillies PSD Hall of Fame Member
    Quote Originally Posted by nymetsrule View Post
    I'm done.

  12. #342
    Absolutely brilliant!
    My blog- analysis of the San Francisco Giants, Baseball, and Sabermetrics.

  13. #343
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    Quote Originally Posted by GimmeAD View Post
    OK so I made this video of what it is like when a saber guy and traditional baseball fan argue about something. Wanted your guys' opinion on it:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z3zuwF15Ios
    LMAO. Thats great.

    "What the **** is a WAR"

    Everyone of those lines is straight off PSD, they have to be.

  14. #344
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    "Who are you? ****ing Jeff Francoeur?"


  15. #345
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    The funny thing is it was all done off the top of my head just from seeing this **** on PSD and Twitter. It literally took me like an hour to do. More to come.

    08' Phillies PSD Hall of Fame Member
    Quote Originally Posted by nymetsrule View Post
    I'm done.

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