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  1. #256
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    But those players are not a sure thing at all. Keep in mind, guys like Jose Abreu and Yasiel Puig and those guys aren't international slot guys. But the guys who are international slot guys are like 17 year old kids in developing countries. Its not like these guys are constantly becoming perennial All-Stars a ton. You're taking a pretty big gamble on these kids. While I agree it can pay off, as a small market team, blowing past your limit a lot does more than just incure penalties, it also eats up cap. We had to pay Lara $3.1 million. I like the move, but if you're doing that consistently (for example, the Yankees spent $14 million on the international signing pool), you're eating into your budget for the big league squad for a 16 year old kid who is just a lottery ticket. I'm not sure that's the most sustainable way to build either.

    Again, I like Lara move, but depending on what Mark wants to spend, an additional $3.5 million for a platoon 1B or a decent relief pitcher may have been a very important piece for the short term. Its possible Lara becomes Miguel Cabrera. But its also possible, and probably just as likely, that he never actually even gets past Double A if he doesn't continue to fill out and his tools don't translate.

    I think in the Sickels article he makes a really good point. I like the way we're moving forward with our farm. Due to a some trades and a couple botched early picks, mainly Arnett, Jungmann and Bradley, our farm was bare. We've done a good job since then of finding and developing undervalued guys into serviceable players. We've made guys like Scooter and Khris Davis into serviceable starters despite them rarely appearing on even the org's top 10 lists. Despite our struggles drafting pitchers, we've got a few higher level and major league level higher upside guys in Nelson and Peralta, but we also have a wealth of guys who could turn into decent relief arms and things. And on top of that, we're starting to put together a group of high upside, toolsy talents that can play together at the lower levels and maybe offer a poor man's Hardy, Hart, Weeks, and Fielder type farm. If we can supplement that lower level core of Harrision, Taylor, Arcia, Coultier and possibly Gatewood with a decent college bat, maybe at 1B or 3B next draft, that's a nice core that can maybe all be ready around the same time.

    In the meantime, we'll continue to try to find undervalued guys like possibly Jimenez, Rogers, Wren and others that can fill in and be serviceable supplements to our current roster until the young guy are ready.

  2. #257
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    Quote Originally Posted by crewfan13 View Post
    But those players are not a sure thing at all. Keep in mind, guys like Jose Abreu and Yasiel Puig and those guys aren't international slot guys. But the guys who are international slot guys are like 17 year old kids in developing countries. Its not like these guys are constantly becoming perennial All-Stars a ton. You're taking a pretty big gamble on these kids. While I agree it can pay off, as a small market team, blowing past your limit a lot does more than just incure penalties, it also eats up cap. We had to pay Lara $3.1 million. I like the move, but if you're doing that consistently (for example, the Yankees spent $14 million on the international signing pool), you're eating into your budget for the big league squad for a 16 year old kid who is just a lottery ticket. I'm not sure that's the most sustainable way to build either.

    Again, I like Lara move, but depending on what Mark wants to spend, an additional $3.5 million for a platoon 1B or a decent relief pitcher may have been a very important piece for the short term. Its possible Lara becomes Miguel Cabrera. But its also possible, and probably just as likely, that he never actually even gets past Double A if he doesn't continue to fill out and his tools don't translate.

    I think in the Sickels article he makes a really good point. I like the way we're moving forward with our farm. Due to a some trades and a couple botched early picks, mainly Arnett, Jungmann and Bradley, our farm was bare. We've done a good job since then of finding and developing undervalued guys into serviceable players. We've made guys like Scooter and Khris Davis into serviceable starters despite them rarely appearing on even the org's top 10 lists. Despite our struggles drafting pitchers, we've got a few higher level and major league level higher upside guys in Nelson and Peralta, but we also have a wealth of guys who could turn into decent relief arms and things. And on top of that, we're starting to put together a group of high upside, toolsy talents that can play together at the lower levels and maybe offer a poor man's Hardy, Hart, Weeks, and Fielder type farm. If we can supplement that lower level core of Harrision, Taylor, Arcia, Coultier and possibly Gatewood with a decent college bat, maybe at 1B or 3B next draft, that's a nice core that can maybe all be ready around the same time.

    In the meantime, we'll continue to try to find undervalued guys like possibly Jimenez, Rogers, Wren and others that can fill in and be serviceable supplements to our current roster until the young guy are ready.
    Its just tough to repair a Major League team when your top INF prospects are years away with Taylor, Arcia 1 1/2-2 years away, with Lara, Harrison probably longer. Coulter could be a September call up if he progresses quickly this year but I expect him to be up in the middle of next year. The pitching spects are a little closer but they don't project to anything more than a #4,5.

  3. #258
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    Taylor and arcia are closer to the bigs than coulter in my mind. They both played a level higher than coulter last year (with Taylor getting a taste of AA as well). Taylor and arcia also have skills that could immediately would translate immediately to the bigs. Both are solid defenders and have the speed to translate as well. Right now, coulter doesn't have a defensive position and basically only has one season of good hitting stats at low A to his name. Coulter would be lucky to be a September callup the year after next. He's probably a minimum of 2 years off, if not more.

  4. #259
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    Our updated prospect rankings on some sites now include Knebel and Diplan. Curious that I haven't seen Sardinas added to really any of our prospect list. I'm not sure if that's because they don't really consider him a prospect or what. But its hard to imagine he couldn't crack our top 20.

    That being said, the more and more I look at our org, the more excited I get about Monte Harrison. The kid is a crazy ridiculous athlete. At 6'3", he makes throwing down a between the legs dunk look easy. He destroyed guys in football with his speed and athleticism. In draft workouts, he was clocked throwing it 97 mph from the outfield. He has natural instincts in the OF. He's first focusing on baseball for the first time and actually had good plate discipline, taking 31 walks in 50 games. He was also 32/34 stealing bases. He has potential to be a crazy great player in this league as long as his bat continues to progress.

  5. #260
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    Quote Originally Posted by crewfan13 View Post
    Our updated prospect rankings on some sites now include Knebel and Diplan. Curious that I haven't seen Sardinas added to really any of our prospect list. I'm not sure if that's because they don't really consider him a prospect or what. But its hard to imagine he couldn't crack our top 20.

    That being said, the more and more I look at our org, the more excited I get about Monte Harrison. The kid is a crazy ridiculous athlete. At 6'3", he makes throwing down a between the legs dunk look easy. He destroyed guys in football with his speed and athleticism. In draft workouts, he was clocked throwing it 97 mph from the outfield. He has natural instincts in the OF. He's first focusing on baseball for the first time and actually had good plate discipline, taking 31 walks in 50 games. He was also 32/34 stealing bases. He has potential to be a crazy great player in this league as long as his bat continues to progress.
    I have read pieces with him being compared to Andrew McCutcheon on the upside end. If that's the case, I better start buying autographed baseball cards ASAP. lol

  6. #261
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    I have read the same thing on him. He does have the athletic upside, but hasn't shown a ton of power yet at this point in his career (obviously pretty early). He has the frame that I wouldn't be shocked to see him develop some more power, but he may never be a perennial 25 homer guy. I see him as maybe alittle closer to Carl Crawford than Cutch, but he's still so young its super hard to project him at this point. I've also seen him compared to guys like Jason Heyward and Torri Hunter as other player comps. Either way, I think the consensus around him is that he has all the physical tools to be a multiple all star, but has a long ways to go to get there.

    If you're an autograph/memorabilia fan, he would definitely be the first guy in the farm I'd recommend that probably has the best upside. I love Taylor and Arcia, and have no problem with them above Harrison in the prospect rankings, but if we're talking ceilings, Harrison's is definitely better. I'm assuming he'll spend at least some time in Appleton this year, and I'm excited to catch a few games since I live up in that direction. This past year was sort of boring with Coultier being the only real prospect (as far as positional guys go) on that team.

  7. #262
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    Keith Law posted his organization minor league talent rankings and had the Brewers near the bottom again at 28th. Obviously it would be nice to see us higher on the list, but to be honest, I try not to put a ton of stock into those types of things. I know I post that stuff on here a lot, and its fun to talk about minor league rankings and minor league guys, but at the end of the day, scouting those minor league prospects isn't near as an exact science as people make it out to believe.

    Take team A for example. To open 2007 team A had 8 prospects on the top 100 list according to Baseball America. Team A proceeded to lose the World Series that year and was a 90 win team. Conventional wisdom would tend to say that a team that just made a deep playoff run and has a bunch of young talent (some of that talent played a role in 2007, others didn't) would be destined to be at least pretty good for the foreseeable future. Team A really only lost 1 big name free agent that year, but as unable to sustain success. Since that time, they've been over .500 twice and made the playoffs once, only be lose in the first round. Team A is the Colorado Rockies, who don't really appear to have that bright of future at this moment either.

    I'm not trying to disparage the Rockies here, but what I'm simply trying to do is illustrate that farm system rankings can be hogwash. Part of the reason our system is so "bad" is because we had a bad couple drafts, some of the guys who should have either just graduated from the farm, or would be at the top levels were traded for win now players, and most of our current talent is at the low levels. Guys sneak through without much fan fare in the minors all the time, and plenty of the "top" prospects will bust.

    Anyone who's interested, I encourage you to go back to some previous top 100 prospect lists. I've done it with a few random years (usually somewhere between 2007-2011 just to give the lower level guys time to play in the bigs) and the results are not as good as you think. Typically what I've found is the top10-20 or so, you are typically getting a decent return value. I would say 50-75% of those guys turn into at least decent starters. Some of the rest of them flame out quickly, and a few of the others turn into platoon, bench or middle reliver types. Once you drop below the top 20, the return rate gets worse and worse fairly quickly. A lot of the lists I saw would go by 20s, and typically, if you get 5 decent starters out of a group of 20, you're doing pretty good. There's always a fair amount of flamouts and bench player as well.

  8. #263
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    I think that our farm rankings at this point are fair because of the how young and raw our top prospects are. If guys like Taylor, Arcia, Harrison, Coulter, Medieros, Williams, and Gatewood play well we could have around 5 guys in the top 100 next year. There isn't much mlb ready talent hence a much greater risk. I do think that our farm is better than a few of the teams ranked ahead of us. Also a bunch of teams will be losing big prospects to the bigs and we really have no one on our top 20 this year ouside of maybe Jungman will make the bigs and lose eligiblity. Sardinas isn't technically a prospect because he had to many AB's in the bigs, he was ranked ahead of Knebel in the Rangers system so he might be somewhere in the 5-7 range in our system if you wanted to count him.

  9. #264
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    Fan Graphs released their top 200 prospect list. Arcia is our best prospect and he shows up on the list at #87.

    From what I've read (and I have fairly limited knowledge on other systems prospects), but comparatively, they seem to be quite a bit different from a lot of the other systems. They aren't afraid to rank really young guys more highly. Most of the top 100 or so lists you see typically have more of a prove it type of attitude with guys in Single A or lower, but this list doesn't shy away from those guys as much, especially if they have upside. With that in mind, our next best prospect on that list is Kodi Medieros at #115. I found that pretty interesting.

    They do their ranking system in tiers, and have small write-ups on every player up through #142. At that point, the next tier kicks in from #143-200. At that point, the players are no longer ranked in order, just listed in alphabetical order by team with no write-ups. But interestingly, we have 5 players who make that list. They are, Knebel, Coultier, Ty Taylor, Monte Harrison and Gilbert Lara. I find it interesting that those players aren't alphabetical, so I suspect that's the order they have them ranked.

    For me, there's a few takeaways from this. Fan Graphs isn't near as high on guys like Taylor Williams and those types as some of the other prognosticators are. On a lot of our lists, those guys rank above Lara, Harrison, sometimes Coultier and sometimes Medieros. This ranking system seems to be higher on Medieros than others are, as I've seen him out of our top 10 in some. They also seem to be lower on Ty Taylor than others are. He seems to be our consensus #2, and in some cases #1, but they appear to have him 5th. Some thought he wasn't far off the top 100, and it appears he's clearly below that ranking according to this. One final thought for me is no Jungmann. I know his upside is probably more limited, but you still usually see him somewhat high on a fair amount of lists, usually because he should compete this year.

    Edit: Our 7 players ranks us right in the middle for total number of players represented, which is encouraging. The discouraging part is that many, if not all of the teams below us have more guys rated in the upper tiers than we do.

    Double Edit: Here's the link. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-f...prospect-list/
    Last edited by crewfan13; 02-17-2015 at 02:22 PM.

  10. #265
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    I for one am actually fairly excited for the Timber Rattlers this year if things open up as I suspect they might. I would think Devin Williams will open up in Appleton. I hope Kodi opens in Appleton, but wouldn't be shocked if they pitch him another season in Rookie ball as that's what they did with Williams. Miguel Diaz, which is a guy I've heard mentioned in a few places as a guy to watch has a shot to start in Appleton. I suspect he's still a year away, but there's a chance Marcos Diplan, the third piece in the Yo trade, spends some time in Appleton as well. All in all, that's a starting rotation that should/could feature a fair amount of guys with some prospect upside.

    As far as position players go, I would anticipate Monte Harrison starts the year in Appleton. He played well enough in Rookie ball that I wouldn't think he has anything left to prove. Gatewood wasn't as good, but I would imagine there's a good chance he starts for the Rattlers too. You can also add in a guy like Tucker Neuhaus, who was a second rounder 2 years ago. I would imagine he should probably start the year in Appleton as well. I'm not as high on him as I once was, but he was a kid coming out of high school and is still young enough to put it together. I may be forgetting about a few guys, but all in all it looks like there's a decent chance we have some good upside guys in Appleton this year. I know we had Taylor and Arcia two years ago, but last year it was basically Coultier and a pitcher or two and that was it.

  11. #266
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    I keep seeing tweets about the non-roster invite guys being sent to the minors. I'm not going to link them all, but one interesting note that I saw was that Yadiel Rivera, a SS and a bottom half of our top 30 prospect, was optioned down to AA. The reason I find that interesting is because that's where I expect Arcia to start the season as well. By all accounts, Arcia's glove is big league ready, and he hit .289 with a .346 OBP in High A last year, so I wouldn't think there's any benefit to keeping him at Brevard. Interesting that we'll have two SS in AA. I know it will help them to also be able to play some 2B and maybe 3B, but you'd think you'd want to optimize their time at short too. I guess the only thing I can think of is that if they send down Sardinas or Gomez, that they'll want them working at SS in AAA. Interesting to see who makes the team and where everyone else ends up.

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