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  1. #256
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    But those players are not a sure thing at all. Keep in mind, guys like Jose Abreu and Yasiel Puig and those guys aren't international slot guys. But the guys who are international slot guys are like 17 year old kids in developing countries. Its not like these guys are constantly becoming perennial All-Stars a ton. You're taking a pretty big gamble on these kids. While I agree it can pay off, as a small market team, blowing past your limit a lot does more than just incure penalties, it also eats up cap. We had to pay Lara $3.1 million. I like the move, but if you're doing that consistently (for example, the Yankees spent $14 million on the international signing pool), you're eating into your budget for the big league squad for a 16 year old kid who is just a lottery ticket. I'm not sure that's the most sustainable way to build either.

    Again, I like Lara move, but depending on what Mark wants to spend, an additional $3.5 million for a platoon 1B or a decent relief pitcher may have been a very important piece for the short term. Its possible Lara becomes Miguel Cabrera. But its also possible, and probably just as likely, that he never actually even gets past Double A if he doesn't continue to fill out and his tools don't translate.

    I think in the Sickels article he makes a really good point. I like the way we're moving forward with our farm. Due to a some trades and a couple botched early picks, mainly Arnett, Jungmann and Bradley, our farm was bare. We've done a good job since then of finding and developing undervalued guys into serviceable players. We've made guys like Scooter and Khris Davis into serviceable starters despite them rarely appearing on even the org's top 10 lists. Despite our struggles drafting pitchers, we've got a few higher level and major league level higher upside guys in Nelson and Peralta, but we also have a wealth of guys who could turn into decent relief arms and things. And on top of that, we're starting to put together a group of high upside, toolsy talents that can play together at the lower levels and maybe offer a poor man's Hardy, Hart, Weeks, and Fielder type farm. If we can supplement that lower level core of Harrision, Taylor, Arcia, Coultier and possibly Gatewood with a decent college bat, maybe at 1B or 3B next draft, that's a nice core that can maybe all be ready around the same time.

    In the meantime, we'll continue to try to find undervalued guys like possibly Jimenez, Rogers, Wren and others that can fill in and be serviceable supplements to our current roster until the young guy are ready.

  2. #257
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    Quote Originally Posted by crewfan13 View Post
    But those players are not a sure thing at all. Keep in mind, guys like Jose Abreu and Yasiel Puig and those guys aren't international slot guys. But the guys who are international slot guys are like 17 year old kids in developing countries. Its not like these guys are constantly becoming perennial All-Stars a ton. You're taking a pretty big gamble on these kids. While I agree it can pay off, as a small market team, blowing past your limit a lot does more than just incure penalties, it also eats up cap. We had to pay Lara $3.1 million. I like the move, but if you're doing that consistently (for example, the Yankees spent $14 million on the international signing pool), you're eating into your budget for the big league squad for a 16 year old kid who is just a lottery ticket. I'm not sure that's the most sustainable way to build either.

    Again, I like Lara move, but depending on what Mark wants to spend, an additional $3.5 million for a platoon 1B or a decent relief pitcher may have been a very important piece for the short term. Its possible Lara becomes Miguel Cabrera. But its also possible, and probably just as likely, that he never actually even gets past Double A if he doesn't continue to fill out and his tools don't translate.

    I think in the Sickels article he makes a really good point. I like the way we're moving forward with our farm. Due to a some trades and a couple botched early picks, mainly Arnett, Jungmann and Bradley, our farm was bare. We've done a good job since then of finding and developing undervalued guys into serviceable players. We've made guys like Scooter and Khris Davis into serviceable starters despite them rarely appearing on even the org's top 10 lists. Despite our struggles drafting pitchers, we've got a few higher level and major league level higher upside guys in Nelson and Peralta, but we also have a wealth of guys who could turn into decent relief arms and things. And on top of that, we're starting to put together a group of high upside, toolsy talents that can play together at the lower levels and maybe offer a poor man's Hardy, Hart, Weeks, and Fielder type farm. If we can supplement that lower level core of Harrision, Taylor, Arcia, Coultier and possibly Gatewood with a decent college bat, maybe at 1B or 3B next draft, that's a nice core that can maybe all be ready around the same time.

    In the meantime, we'll continue to try to find undervalued guys like possibly Jimenez, Rogers, Wren and others that can fill in and be serviceable supplements to our current roster until the young guy are ready.
    Its just tough to repair a Major League team when your top INF prospects are years away with Taylor, Arcia 1 1/2-2 years away, with Lara, Harrison probably longer. Coulter could be a September call up if he progresses quickly this year but I expect him to be up in the middle of next year. The pitching spects are a little closer but they don't project to anything more than a #4,5.

  3. #258
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    Taylor and arcia are closer to the bigs than coulter in my mind. They both played a level higher than coulter last year (with Taylor getting a taste of AA as well). Taylor and arcia also have skills that could immediately would translate immediately to the bigs. Both are solid defenders and have the speed to translate as well. Right now, coulter doesn't have a defensive position and basically only has one season of good hitting stats at low A to his name. Coulter would be lucky to be a September callup the year after next. He's probably a minimum of 2 years off, if not more.

  4. #259
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    Our updated prospect rankings on some sites now include Knebel and Diplan. Curious that I haven't seen Sardinas added to really any of our prospect list. I'm not sure if that's because they don't really consider him a prospect or what. But its hard to imagine he couldn't crack our top 20.

    That being said, the more and more I look at our org, the more excited I get about Monte Harrison. The kid is a crazy ridiculous athlete. At 6'3", he makes throwing down a between the legs dunk look easy. He destroyed guys in football with his speed and athleticism. In draft workouts, he was clocked throwing it 97 mph from the outfield. He has natural instincts in the OF. He's first focusing on baseball for the first time and actually had good plate discipline, taking 31 walks in 50 games. He was also 32/34 stealing bases. He has potential to be a crazy great player in this league as long as his bat continues to progress.

  5. #260
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    Quote Originally Posted by crewfan13 View Post
    Our updated prospect rankings on some sites now include Knebel and Diplan. Curious that I haven't seen Sardinas added to really any of our prospect list. I'm not sure if that's because they don't really consider him a prospect or what. But its hard to imagine he couldn't crack our top 20.

    That being said, the more and more I look at our org, the more excited I get about Monte Harrison. The kid is a crazy ridiculous athlete. At 6'3", he makes throwing down a between the legs dunk look easy. He destroyed guys in football with his speed and athleticism. In draft workouts, he was clocked throwing it 97 mph from the outfield. He has natural instincts in the OF. He's first focusing on baseball for the first time and actually had good plate discipline, taking 31 walks in 50 games. He was also 32/34 stealing bases. He has potential to be a crazy great player in this league as long as his bat continues to progress.
    I have read pieces with him being compared to Andrew McCutcheon on the upside end. If that's the case, I better start buying autographed baseball cards ASAP. lol

  6. #261
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    I have read the same thing on him. He does have the athletic upside, but hasn't shown a ton of power yet at this point in his career (obviously pretty early). He has the frame that I wouldn't be shocked to see him develop some more power, but he may never be a perennial 25 homer guy. I see him as maybe alittle closer to Carl Crawford than Cutch, but he's still so young its super hard to project him at this point. I've also seen him compared to guys like Jason Heyward and Torri Hunter as other player comps. Either way, I think the consensus around him is that he has all the physical tools to be a multiple all star, but has a long ways to go to get there.

    If you're an autograph/memorabilia fan, he would definitely be the first guy in the farm I'd recommend that probably has the best upside. I love Taylor and Arcia, and have no problem with them above Harrison in the prospect rankings, but if we're talking ceilings, Harrison's is definitely better. I'm assuming he'll spend at least some time in Appleton this year, and I'm excited to catch a few games since I live up in that direction. This past year was sort of boring with Coultier being the only real prospect (as far as positional guys go) on that team.

  7. #262
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    Keith Law posted his organization minor league talent rankings and had the Brewers near the bottom again at 28th. Obviously it would be nice to see us higher on the list, but to be honest, I try not to put a ton of stock into those types of things. I know I post that stuff on here a lot, and its fun to talk about minor league rankings and minor league guys, but at the end of the day, scouting those minor league prospects isn't near as an exact science as people make it out to believe.

    Take team A for example. To open 2007 team A had 8 prospects on the top 100 list according to Baseball America. Team A proceeded to lose the World Series that year and was a 90 win team. Conventional wisdom would tend to say that a team that just made a deep playoff run and has a bunch of young talent (some of that talent played a role in 2007, others didn't) would be destined to be at least pretty good for the foreseeable future. Team A really only lost 1 big name free agent that year, but as unable to sustain success. Since that time, they've been over .500 twice and made the playoffs once, only be lose in the first round. Team A is the Colorado Rockies, who don't really appear to have that bright of future at this moment either.

    I'm not trying to disparage the Rockies here, but what I'm simply trying to do is illustrate that farm system rankings can be hogwash. Part of the reason our system is so "bad" is because we had a bad couple drafts, some of the guys who should have either just graduated from the farm, or would be at the top levels were traded for win now players, and most of our current talent is at the low levels. Guys sneak through without much fan fare in the minors all the time, and plenty of the "top" prospects will bust.

    Anyone who's interested, I encourage you to go back to some previous top 100 prospect lists. I've done it with a few random years (usually somewhere between 2007-2011 just to give the lower level guys time to play in the bigs) and the results are not as good as you think. Typically what I've found is the top10-20 or so, you are typically getting a decent return value. I would say 50-75% of those guys turn into at least decent starters. Some of the rest of them flame out quickly, and a few of the others turn into platoon, bench or middle reliver types. Once you drop below the top 20, the return rate gets worse and worse fairly quickly. A lot of the lists I saw would go by 20s, and typically, if you get 5 decent starters out of a group of 20, you're doing pretty good. There's always a fair amount of flamouts and bench player as well.

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