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  1. #271
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    Nov 2008
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    Interesting note: Keith Law, in an insider blog so I can't post, updated his top prospects for the Brewers. He has Arcia as #1, which is no surprise. He had Arcia in his top 20 prospect when he updated that list a few weeks back.

    The biggest surprises are the next two guys. He has 1st rounder Trent Clark up at #2 already, even though he's a HS who has yet to play any pro baseball. I think that can be taken two ways, either Law is not very high on anyone else in the farm, or he was just really, really high on Clark. I know he had Clark rated higher than 15 pre-draft, so its likely a combination of the two.

    As for #3, it was Michael Reed. Reed has been killing it at AA this year. He was our #17 prospect pre season. He's always had good speed, been a good defender with a great walk rate. Problem was, at the earlier levels, he was only an adequate hitter for average and didn't have great power numbers (although he profiled out of high school as a guy who can hit for some pop). The question for him was always where he'd play. Scouts weren't sure if he was quite good enough to handle center full time, and his bat wasn't quite there for a corner OF. This year, he's hit for some more power, been really efficient on the bases (stealing wise) and has hit for more average than before, without sacrificing his walks. I think now the book on him is a guy who still might be able to play center, but now is hitting enough that he may not be a detriment if he has to fall back to a corner OF position. His profile says he has a pretty solid arm, so RF isn't out of the question. I haven't seen many player comps or anything, and I haven't seen a ton of Reed live, but I think he could profile as a Gerrado Parra type, with maybe a little less defense and a little more base stealing.

  2. #272
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    Reed = a secondcoming of Michael Brantley. Time to move him up IMO, send Parra down the road/Gomez and lets see what the kid has.

  3. #273
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    I hope you're right on Reed. I think Brantley might be a little aggressive. Brantley always hit for average in the minors, where as Reed has first really started to hit for more average this year. Brantley also typically showed some better SB numbers in the minors, but depending on how Reed finishes, its pretty close. Brantley was also consistently a year younger than Reed at each level. But both guys have similar power and OBP numbers. The differences were probably more about splitting hairs than anything else, but it may not be a bad comp. I still think he profiles similarly to a Gerrardo Parra type. There was an article on Reviewing the Brew blog today on Reed that sites a fairly common Nori Aoki comp. I'm not sure I completely agree with that, but that's still a really useful player, especially if you have the 23 year old version of Aoki that's controllable for 6 years instead of a 30 yr old Aoki on a 2 year deal.

    Either way, I think a promotion to Milwaukee might be a bit aggressive this year, but I think a promotion to Colorado Springs should be in order. Hopefully we can move guys like Gomez and Parra so that opens a spot on the big league roster for a Logan Schaefer, which subsequently opens up at bats for Reed at AAA. I try to temper my excitement on him, but he's turning into a really nice player in the farm.

  4. #274
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    Dec 2008
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    I like Reed a lot, not sure I'd go 3 even though no one else is playing well. Clark could be a top 100 prospect if he plays well the rest of the way. Here a rough top 20 from my point of view.

    1. Orlando Arcia, his play really makes Segura expenable especially with Sardinas and Riveria playing well.
    2. Trent Clark, he has all the skills to be a big time prospect/player.
    3. Kodi Medeiros, hasn't been great but strikeout rate is good and his stuff is good.
    4. Gilbert Lara, at 17 he has started of well in rookie ball.
    5. Tyrone Taylor, has leveled off, his power potential seems to not be progressing.
    6. Jorge Lopez, Very solid and growing into his potential.
    7. Michael Reed, Brantley isn't a bad comparision at least for what he was in our system.
    8. Clint Coulter, Power is at a premium even though he has cooled of after a hot start.
    9. Devin Williams, hasn't hurt himself in 40 innings.
    10. Jacob Gatewood, he hasn't been good but has the talent.
    11. Nathan Kirby, I would jump him up two number 7 or 8 if he signs and gets a couple good starts in.
    12. Tyler Wagner, Pushed into the bigs still doing well in AA.
    13. Cody Ponce, Big and strong will be an interesting guy to track next year.
    14. Monte Harrison, has been absolutely terrible but still skilled.
    15. Victor Roache, The whole power thing
    16. Marcos Diplan, has looked good so far
    17. Taylor Williams, injured not much to say
    18. Kyle Wren, a 4th OF could hit top of the order.
    19. Tyler Cravy, not much more than a back of the rotation guy.
    20. Demi Orimoyle, My favorite pick from the draft, it might take a while though.

    I left out Jungmann, who would be around 9-10 with his big league play.

  5. #275
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    Personally, I find it difficult to rank some of these guys. Obviously Harrison and Gatewood both floundered with the Timber Rattlers, but they both still have a ton of potential. But I read an article from one of the writers on the new BP Milwaukee site that was very interesting. Basically, it said that what Gatewood and Harrison did was not uncommon. Most of the time when teams draft guys right out of high school, they keep them in rookie ball for that first half season, and usually start them in rookie ball the next season. To put those guys up in Low A is somewhat aggressive. I wish I could find the article again, but it looked at the numbers of some similar prospects who took the same route (low A in their first full season) and almost all of them were just as brutal as Harrison and Gatewood. So while they didn't look great, I think its not quite fair to drop them too far in the rankings just based upon a half season in the Appleton. Even guys like Alex Jackson, who was a top 100 prospect this year, had the same struggles as Harrison and Gatewood when exposed to Low A this early. It's a nice learning curve, and nice to get them exposed in case they succeeded, but I think realistic expectations were that they both were likely to struggle out of the gates.

    I do want to add one guy to the conversation though. Not sure if he's going to be a top 20 guy for us yet, but Troy Stokes is off to a hot start for short season team as well. He was the 4th round pick last year as a high school outfielder. He's not quite as toolsy as Harrison was, but still has great speed and projects as a true CF and leadoff hitter. He's hitting and getting on base in Helena, and even though its a small sample size, its encouraging. Don't be surprised if that's a name you hear creeping up in some discussions in the near future.

  6. #276
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    Hate to toot my own horn, and by my own horn, I mean the horn I was hearing from some of the minor league writers, but Troy Stokes had another 3/4 night last night with a homer. Like I said, he is a small, speed guy, but he's having a heck of a start in Helena this season. Although its only 10 games, he's hitting .389 with an OBP over .500. Last season, he played in the Arizona rookie ball league, and while he didn't show really any pop, he did take a lot of walks, hit alright, and steal a decent amount of bases. This year, all of that is continuing, as he has 6 walks and 5 steals in 10 games to go with his .389 average, he has also added 3 homers already this year, so maybe there's some pop developing. Plus, he's only 19 anyway, so he has some time to develop, but that's a very encouraging start for him so far.

  7. #277
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    Nice I didn't know much about Stokes besides he was drafted last year.

  8. #278
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    Both Baseball America and Baseball Prospectus released their updated top 50 prospect rankings. Arcia ranked 8th and 31st in the two publications. John Sickels, of the minor league ball blog, did a quick writeup on their rankings and mentioned he'll have his rankings out within a few days. He did comment on Arcia and it sounds like he'll have him ranked closer to 8 than 31 in his rankings.

    I know those rankings don't really mean a ton at the end of the day, but its nice to see Arcia really getting some respect. That puts him top 20 in Baseball America and Keith Law recently, and likely around top 20 in Sickels as well. I'm not sure Arcia has immense upside in the sense that he's never probably going to be the best player in the game, but he should have the makings of a legitimate strong defensive starting shortstop who has gap power (a lot of doubles), can steal some bases, and profiles as a leadoff or #2 hitter type. I'm very excited about him and hopefully we can swing a couple deals at the deadline to supplement our prospect class.

  9. #279
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    In other way too small of sample size news, Clark, Omoriolye and Lara have all been swinging pretty decent bats down for the spring training team. Again, that's a very small sample size and its not like its some crazy competitive team or anything, but its an encouraging start to their pro careers, especially for guys as young as they are. We have a glut of OFers and SS in the lower levels of the farm, so it'll be interesting to see where everyone starts next season at, but its possible we end up seeing a Clark, Harrison, Stokes OF in Appleton to start the year next year, and that would be very exciting.

  10. #280
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    John Sickels of minor league ball released his top 75 prospects mid-season edition. Of note, Arcia jumps up to #11 and Coulter checks in at 73. Here's the link below if anyone is interested. Not much of a write up on either guy, but nice to see us with two guys, as we barely even had one guy on most people's top 100 coming into the season.

    http://www.minorleagueball.com/2015/...-season-update

  11. #281
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    Sounding more and more like people are thinking Orlando Arcia is going to be a superstar in the league...seen a few bits that teams are trying "hard" to trade for him. Kind of interesting, if he's that great let's deal Segura right now and play Sardinas rest of season...then maybe we can deal him in the winter and bring Arcia up to be the every day SS.

  12. #282
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    I'm not against trading Segura, but I also don't think I'd rush to trade him though either. I think its all about what value we can get for him. Right now, the Mets could probably use an upgrade at short, but most the other contenders are at least alright at short. San Diego theoretically needs a SS, but they probably aren't major buyers right now. I think I'd almost wait until the offseason to trade Segura unless we get a pretty good offer.

    I think Segura is such an interesting case. SS is a relatively weak spot in baseball right now, and Segura is a pretty decent one. The problem is, there's a lot of teams with okay to alright SS. Segura may be an upgrade for them, but he's probably a marginal upgrade at best. So teams really aren't willing to give up much for him. And for us, we should probably be asking a decent amount for him, because he is a pretty decent, young, controllable player. That's what's hard with him. I'm not sure value and asking price match up, especially since there may not be a ton of buyers for his services. And even if we love Arcia (which we should), there's still potentially an opening at 2nd, so its not as if we can't find a spot for him.

    I guess to just circle back to my first thought. I won't at all be upset if we move on from Segura, but I'm also not sure we need to move him if we are underwhelmed with the move.

  13. #283
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    Dec 2008
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    Stearns approach so far is definitely to add as many really young upside prospects. They are going to have one of the deepest systems in the league next year. If a couple guys can explode onto the scene like Hader did in the Fall league, I could see 7-8 top 100 prospects at the half way mark next year. Even more potentially if we trade Lucroy or anyone else of value. I was really hoping we could get 1 really nice prospect for Lind, but do like the upside in getting 3 teenagers with command. If any of them develop right the trade is good.

  14. #284
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    Aug 2014
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    Everyone is saying trade Segura but I am not so sure. Why not move him to second and get rid of Gennett, who can't hit lefties. At least Segura is playable vs. LHP and RHP and move him back to 2B where he was with Angels.

  15. #285
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    The reason would be because segura would bring back more value. Segura would be fine at 2nd, but defense is one of his best attributes. And his defense at shortstop s much more valuable than it is at 2nd.

    I think we have enough playable guys at 2nd who could provide similar value to segura, so if someone is willing to give up some value for him, then we should pull the trigger.

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