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  1. #1
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    2016 Season Discussion

    Just something to discuss games or anything for this season.

  2. #2
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    So far through 6 games this team is about what I expected. Very inconsistent but plenty of talent to compete with contenders. I'm really interested to see how the CF situation goes this season and how long Aaron Hill and Johnathan Villar stay everyday players.

  3. #3
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    Quote Originally Posted by jay87shot View Post
    So far through 6 games this team is about what I expected. Very inconsistent but plenty of talent to compete with contenders. I'm really interested to see how the CF situation goes this season and how long Aaron Hill and Johnathan Villar stay everyday players.
    I have been pretty surprised by the play of a few guys. But first the disappointing. If the team is going to compete for the playoffs sooner rather than later the young pitchers already on the roster need to make strides. Looks like Nelson has figured some things out. Jungmann needs to build on last year. I can't believe a guy like Peralta, throws 96 with movement and is 5-21 over last 26 decisions. That is awful. He needs to be better.

    I have already seen enough of Broxton. No hits and isn't all that great in CF.

    I have liked what Carter has been doing so far. Giving quality at-bats. Scooter has been great. Villar has been pretty good. Hill hasn't done much with the bat but is playing solid D. Braun has been OK. Guy that is really impressive is Santana. Dude has a great approach, walks a lot uses all fields and goes to right-center with power. Draws walks. Just needs to cut down on Ks but he will be fixture in MIL for long time I hope.

    Been impressed with pen, especially Thornburg, Jeffress and Blazek early on. Team really isn't far off of competing I don't think. 2018 should be contending for playoffs.

  4. #4
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    2018 is possible, but I wouldn't get my hopes up. Some guys are looking good, but we still have plenty of holes though too. 2018 will likely be arcias 2nd full year, Phillips 1st full year and lucroy will I longer be under contract. I don't think Chris carter will be the long term answer at 1st either. I can't imagine by 2018 that we'll have a great option at 1st, 3rd or catcher. We have some young guys that can potentially fill those holes, but I can't imagine those guys will be above average by 2018. And that doesn't even include the pitching staff, who right now probably has one guy who you can say with any confidence will likely be more than a number 4 to 5 starter by 2018.

  5. #5
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    This next month or so will really be interesting. Every series except 1 (on the road vs. cubs) is very favorable. I could definitely see this team being over .500 mid-May (then struggling when the schedule gets rough). I definately agree that the pitching staff has to improve to be a contender in a couple years. Although I feel like we already have 3 or 4 pieces from that rotation and we will definitely have money to sign a nice piece as well. Nelson and Jungmann and then hopefully Hader and Lopez can continue to develop into top of the rotation guys. Devin Williams and Kodi Mediros have some potential to be top of the rotation guys as well in a few years. That means Peralta, Anderson, Davies and Garza are just guys we hope can build some trade value to bring in more young talent.

  6. #6
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    Quote Originally Posted by jay87shot View Post
    This next month or so will really be interesting. Every series except 1 (on the road vs. cubs) is very favorable. I could definitely see this team being over .500 mid-May (then struggling when the schedule gets rough). I definately agree that the pitching staff has to improve to be a contender in a couple years. Although I feel like we already have 3 or 4 pieces from that rotation and we will definitely have money to sign a nice piece as well. Nelson and Jungmann and then hopefully Hader and Lopez can continue to develop into top of the rotation guys. Devin Williams and Kodi Mediros have some potential to be top of the rotation guys as well in a few years. That means Peralta, Anderson, Davies and Garza are just guys we hope can build some trade value to bring in more young talent.
    Agree with pretty much everything you said. I have been pleasantly surprised by the start will be what 7-9 after loss today vs. Twins and they've played a very difficult schedule. I doubt they are over .500 mid-May but could see them hanging around that mark two or three under .500. Really like Domingo the way he is playing. He could be a stud in another year or two. Already a very good player with serious pop.

  7. #7
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    Quote Originally Posted by jay87shot View Post
    This next month or so will really be interesting. Every series except 1 (on the road vs. cubs) is very favorable. I could definitely see this team being over .500 mid-May (then struggling when the schedule gets rough). I definately agree that the pitching staff has to improve to be a contender in a couple years. Although I feel like we already have 3 or 4 pieces from that rotation and we will definitely have money to sign a nice piece as well. Nelson and Jungmann and then hopefully Hader and Lopez can continue to develop into top of the rotation guys. Devin Williams and Kodi Mediros have some potential to be top of the rotation guys as well in a few years. That means Peralta, Anderson, Davies and Garza are just guys we hope can build some trade value to bring in more young talent.
    I'm not overly optimistic about jungmann. His numbers last year were basically a mirage. There was very little underlying evidence to suggest that he should have been as good as he was. Unless his change up takes a big jump, he's basically the same thing as peralta to me. They are both basically two pitch guys who thrive on grounders.

    I love hader and he has elite stuff, but he needs to dial in his command and learn how to be effective without throwing 90 pitches in 5 innings.

    I also fear Lopez is most likely a 4 or 5 guy as well. Kodi and Williams are intriguing arms, but like hader they both have a ways to go in their development (particularly in their control) before I can pencil them into anything more than a back end starter.

    We have intrigue for sure, but to me we are still need a future #1 and either a #2 or 3 from currently outside the org. It's possible that we can draft a future #1 and then sign a #2/3, or it's possible some guys exceed expectations, but right now with the data at hand, it's hard for me to say we have 4 pieces of a championship contending pitching staff currently in the org.

  8. #8
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    For what it's worth, I also feel we are at least one bat from outside the org away as well. I think we need a middle of the order 1st or 3rd baseman type yet too.

    That being said, we have a ton of outfield guys that I love. I think there's a pretty good chance we have potentially more than 3 above average outfielders in the org. So we have some strengths within the org that could potentially bring back that corner if bat or a good starting pitching.

    I also think if you look at our team at the moment, we have the potential to be a similar style team to Kansas City. Most of our top end prospects profile as good to great defenders with good speed. And a lot of our pitching prospects have the potential to be very good relievers if they can't start. So I think we have a framework of how we could succeed.

  9. #9
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    We most definitely need a big bat at 1st or 3rd, our minor league are really thin at those positions. I can see a couple guys making the change to 3rd that are SS (but they are in low A or rookie ball) or guy to 1st like Nottingham or Coulter but again you have long shots to become really nice middle of the lineup guys. I haven't looked at the draft much, I know there are 3 top arms and then it gets fuzzy who is what a little bit. I think we have #5 pick, which if those top arms are gone i'd definitely take a top power bat.

  10. #10
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    Quote Originally Posted by jay87shot View Post
    We most definitely need a big bat at 1st or 3rd, our minor league are really thin at those positions. I can see a couple guys making the change to 3rd that are SS (but they are in low A or rookie ball) or guy to 1st like Nottingham or Coulter but again you have long shots to become really nice middle of the lineup guys. I haven't looked at the draft much, I know there are 3 top arms and then it gets fuzzy who is what a little bit. I think we have #5 pick, which if those top arms are gone i'd definitely take a top power bat.
    Nottingham and coulter are definitely interesting cases. They both stand to have a lot more long term value if they can even just be serviceable somewhere in the field besides first. We can probably get away with one of them at first if we can get a very good 3b, who's capable of being a 3 or 4 hitter.

    I know it's likely at least one of Lara or gatewood move to third. I'm not super optimistic about gatewood long term, but Lara has quite a bit of potential. It's possible he develops into more of a middle of the order bat. And maybe isan Diaz develops more too. It's too early to tell, but his best case scenario for some was cano. If he develops into something close to that, you can get away with lesser bats at 1st and 3rd as well.

    Problem is that all of those guys are so young, we aren't going to truly know their likely development by this draft (or even next draft most likely). So if there's a highly rated 3rd base bat available in the draft, I would be very excited to jump all over that.

    In a perfect world, I'd love to be able to draft a highly rated college pitcher in this draft, but pitching is always super risky in the draft, so I wouldn't at all be upset with a corner if.

  11. #11
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    I looked at mlb.com draft rating and the top 3b prospect was 14, the top 10 was all pitching and OF (1 SS). No 1B in the top50 and 1 catcher. Those ratings change a lot from when they are posted to when the draft comes around but it does show how value gets spread around by position. Hopefully we can find that bat when someone wants to pay for LuCroy or even Carter or Braun if they keep up the good start for a couple months.

  12. #12
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    The more recent mocks I've read have a 3b from Tennessee, Nick Senzel, who's had a great start to the year. He's apparently hitting everything and rising up draft boards. I've seen a few projections saying he could potentially go as high as the top 5 or 10, but could be lower. Sounds like he's a pretty good athlete with some projection. I don't know a ton about MLB draft prospects, but i like the idea of him.

    And first is always kinda weird in the MLB draft. Most kids with any sort of athleticism play somewhere besides first, or are at least given a shot to try something besides first in the minors. So enou eventual first baseman come through the org as corner of, 3B or even catchers before they are ultimately moved. That's why if you look at top 1B prospect lists, the list is usually fairly weak.

    But what I've seen is similar to what you're saying thoug too. Lots of OFers in the top of the draft. There's some pitching up there two, with two extremely promising prep pitchers, but I fear both will be gone by five.

  13. #13
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    But that's part of the beauty of the MLB draft though too. You don't neccesarily need to take the best guy available. You can "reach" on a guy who you think you can sign for under slot money which allows you to then take chances on falling high schoolers and try to sign them for overslot money.

    Although I'm not a big gatewood fan, that's what we did a few years back and were able to grab what many considered to be 3 promising high schoolers in the first 2 rounds.

    I'd love to get a great player and a true ace outta the draft, but usually quantity is a good plan when it comes to big risks like the MLB draft.

  14. #14
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    Agreed with the getting a true ace and I'd say 1 power bat as well.

    Man our pitching is so terrible, after last year I can't believe I'm saying this but we really really need Garza back. I think Jungmann has maybe 1 bad start left and he needs to go back to AAA to try and figure it out. Javy Guerra has been ok in AAA, but every other arm there has been bad. The crew really needs a different AAA affiliate that isn't in Colorado Springs so it is easier to evaluate talent.

  15. #15
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    Quote Originally Posted by jay87shot View Post
    Agreed with the getting a true ace and I'd say 1 power bat as well.

    Man our pitching is so terrible, after last year I can't believe I'm saying this but we really really need Garza back. I think Jungmann has maybe 1 bad start left and he needs to go back to AAA to try and figure it out. Javy Guerra has been ok in AAA, but every other arm there has been bad. The crew really needs a different AAA affiliate that isn't in Colorado Springs so it is easier to evaluate talent.
    Pitching is horrendous. At least at AA Hader is progressing nicely. 17 IP, 27 K, 1R, 8 BB. Plus, Arcia hitting at AAA. But man the pitching is horrid at MLB and AAA level. I said rebuild's speed would depend on returning young guys on staff and Jungmann and Peralta been pathetic. Nelson has been a very big positive but this staff has a lot of holes to fill.

    Team needs young corner IFs and a young catcher pronto. Nationals matchup well for our needs in their system and maybe can deal Luc for it. Haven't looked at Astros, but know they have a nice system. Rangers are decent fit also.

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