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Thread: Trade Braun?

  1. #1
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    Trade Braun?

    I'll make it short, some team with a lot of money would take him. He hasn't been the same Braunie. Keep Parra and put him in RF. Trade A Ram and Lohse because FA. That gives us about 45 mil for next year plus prospects we pick up in trade.

  2. #2
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    Trade him for what...a stale box of popcorn? Nobody's taking on that contract of his unless he starts putting up Ryan Braun-esque numbers consistently again.

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    Only way we trade him is to eat a good chunk of his contract, and to me, that's not worth it. I still have hopes he can be a good player, maybe not MVP caliber again, but at least a very good hitter. And for the return and amount of money we'd have to pay, I don't see any reason to trade him.

    In a vacuum, if a team is willing to treat Braun like a really good player and give a decent return for him, then I'd do it in a hearbeat, but I don't see that happening. Best case in my mind is that we keep him and hopefully he can produce at a high level this season and next season, then maybe someone would be willing to give even something mediocre in return for him.

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    I think a better discussion is should we trade Lucroy? I can see an argument on both sides. I think he's a guy that's nice to have in the locker room and help with the young guys. He's young enough that he can be part of the next building process as well. But he's also probably the most valuable (if not the most, then easily the 2nd most) asset we have. Catchers who can legitimately hit are a huge benefit. And if there's teams out there that are big fans of pitch framing data, then Lucroy would be even more of a gem in their eyes. Given how team friendly his deal is, the haul for him could be astronomical.

    I actually think one guy who's under the radar as well is Will Smith. He's not a name you hear much in trade talks. I think most people presume we keep him. But I think if we are truly rebuilding, then we should follow the Braves model. They traded Kimbrel because they knew they would get a lot for him, and when you're rebuilding, relief pitchers aren't that valuable. Smith isn't Kimbrel. But a controllable lefty with incredible strikeout numbers who's still relatively young could be pretty tempting for a team in contention that needs an arm. We may be able to get someone to overpay for him as well.

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    I think the only two players who have a 0% chance of being traded are Peralta and Nelson. Everyone else is and should be available in the right trade.

    Lohse and Rami are obviously available. I think guys like Garza, Gomez, and Lucroy are much more interesting discussions. Even Segura is worth considering.

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    I would tend to agree with that assessment. I would think Fiers is relatively untouchable, just given that he's controllable for quite a long time. Although, I was reading an article on one of the blogs saying they want Fiers to be traded just because they're intrigued to see what he would bring back on the open market. How valuable is a 30 year old starter with less than 200 big league innings without dominating stuff, but very effective and strikes out a ton of batters.

    Davis and Scooter are probably unlikely to be traded as well for basically the same reason. Both are decent, cheap, controllable players who aren't likely to net a ton on the trade market.

    I like Segura and there's plenty of reasons to keep him, but if there's a good offer for him, I think I pull the trigger. Arcia seems like the real deal, and Sardinas can potentially be an everyday guy at 2nd if needed too, so we have guys to take his place if someone overwhelms us.

    I think we'd love to trade Garza, but he's almost on Braun's level. He's not young, expensive and not performing up to his contract. I think if someone were willing to take most of Garza's contract, we'd trade him without a ton in return.

  7. #7
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    Quote Originally Posted by long ball View Post
    I think the only two players who have a 0% chance of being traded are Peralta and Nelson. Everyone else is and should be available in the right trade.

    Lohse and Rami are obviously available. I think guys like Garza, Gomez, and Lucroy are much more interesting discussions. Even Segura is worth considering.
    I actually would be all for trading Peralta and/or Nelson if the right buyer came along. Neither one of them have shown anything dominating to me, yet there are probably teams out there that think there is untapped potential. We probably could get a very nice return for them...I know Nelson was being targeted by the Rays last year as a centerpiece for the rumored David Price deal. They may bring back as much as Gomez or Segura.

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    I guess I don't really see the point in trading one of them. I know its an age old adage, but pitching when championships. We have not been great at developing pitching, so I don't think its wise to trade away the young pitching we do have. I mean, prospects are always sort of hit or miss. Let's say you trade Nelson for a minor league pitcher who has a little more upside, you're really gambling that he's even going to be as good as Nelson.

    If you're trading young pitchers with 3 or more years of control left, you're getting one of two things. You're either getting top line vets whose contracts run out soon, or you're getting high upside, low level minor league type guys. You probably aren't getting guys in AAA who're throwing well, because their team would just call them up instead of trading. So I dont' think you're really getting a good deal out of one of them. You can maybe swap them for young hitting, but given our farm system and inability to draft and develop pitching, I think we should keep the pitchers.

  9. #9
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    Quote Originally Posted by crewfan13 View Post
    I guess I don't really see the point in trading one of them. I know its an age old adage, but pitching when championships. We have not been great at developing pitching, so I don't think its wise to trade away the young pitching we do have. I mean, prospects are always sort of hit or miss. Let's say you trade Nelson for a minor league pitcher who has a little more upside, you're really gambling that he's even going to be as good as Nelson.

    If you're trading young pitchers with 3 or more years of control left, you're getting one of two things. You're either getting top line vets whose contracts run out soon, or you're getting high upside, low level minor league type guys. You probably aren't getting guys in AAA who're throwing well, because their team would just call them up instead of trading. So I dont' think you're really getting a good deal out of one of them. You can maybe swap them for young hitting, but given our farm system and inability to draft and develop pitching, I think we should keep the pitchers.
    I think if a team is going to take on the contract of Braun it would be someone like the Angels. They have a bad offense and the cleanup spot for them has been atrocious. Trout, Pujols and Braun as the meat of order would be formidable. Not sure what they got for prospects, but could be a team that would take Braun contract or over half.

  10. #10
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    The more I look at and think about Braun's contract, the more I think it might be tradable. I think there's a caveat that he needs to stay healthy this year, but if he does that and performs like he is now, he might be movable.

    I mean, realistically, a team trading for him this offseason would be inheriting what amounts to either a 5 yr $100 million contract or a 6 year, $111 million contract. He has an option for that last season at $15 million with a $4 million buyout, so that's how I got those numbers. For that contract, he'll carry from his age 32-37 or 38 seasons. Even if he's healthy, those aren't going to be peak seasons for him at the end, but its not unrealistic to think you can get a few good years out of him. For comparison sake, this past offseason, Hanley Ramirez (who's no stranger to injury himself) signed a 4 yr $88 million deal to play OF. When healthy, Braun is a very similar offensive player to Ramirez. So Ramirez is younger and the deal is shorter, but the average yearly value of his deal is higher. And if you go back another off season, another injury prone outfielder, Jacoby Ellsbury signed a 7 year deal worth almost $22 mill per year that carries him from ages 31-37. That same offseason, a 31 year old Shin-Soo Choo signed a 7 year deal worth roughly $18 million per year, which from now on, is worth more than Braun's deal is worth. Again, when healthy, Braun is in the same general range as those guys, and is likely even a better player (Ellsbury maybe added some value at the time as a better defender.).

    There's a bunch of examples of slightly lesser players getting more money. Jason Werth and Josh Hamilton both have signed big deals in the past. I know Braun's deal isn't ideal. But if he can have a healthy season on par with what he's doing now, its far from a Ryan Howard-esque albatross. And if we're willing to eat a little money, even as much as $20 million total, you bump that average value to $16 million over the next 5 years and that's definitely doable. I'm not sure we get great prospects back, but we can probably get something decent back and get out from under that money if we're really fully committed to the rebuild.

  11. #11
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    Have to get rid of this contract, would love to see what he makes per game.

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    I don't get why everyone thinks his contract is that bad. He's currently tied for the 70th highest paid player in baseball. After this season is when his extension kicks in, that boosts him to $20 million per season for the next 3 seasons, $19 million the next season, $17 million after that and a mutual option for $15 million (with a $4 million buyout). So basically, its a $20 million dollar annual contract for 5 years or $18.5 average annually over the next 6 years. To put that in perspective with current salaries. $20 million is tied for 24th highest salary and $18.5 million would be tied for 31st.

    Now obviously, there's some guys on the list who will retire or become free agents and fall off the $20 million salary cliff, but there will be plenty of others that join that list too. I read an article that said MLB salary inflation tends to be about 3.5% per season, so in 3 seasons when he's making his last year of $20 million, his contract will be equivalent to what an $18 million contract is right now (which is what the 34th highest paid player in baseball currently makes) and by the time he is on that last year of his deal at $15 million per season, which is his age 37 season, his contract will be equivalent to what a $12 million deal is right now.

    So its far from a team friendly deal like we thought it might be when he originally signed it, but even if he never returns to his MVP form, but can play at a similar level to what he's playing at this year for a couple seasons, its far from an albatross contract too. From the way people talk, we make it sound like he's going to be the highest paid player in baseball or something, when the reality is that he may never even crack the top 20 in highest paid players, depending on how this next offseason goes.

  13. #13
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    In a small market you can't have 1 guy eating up almost a quarter of your salary, trade him to Angeles and make him play first for them, get what you can, they can afford him.

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    He's most likely retiring a Brewer. Really he is not playing bad at all this season and isn't far off his pre-past couple of years issues. If he stays relatively hot for the rest of the season he'll finish somewhere around .300 / .360 / .550 / .910 which would be absolutely fabulous, both for him and for this organization.

  15. #15
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    Quote Originally Posted by Pcs Papa View Post
    In a small market you can't have 1 guy eating up almost a quarter of your salary, trade him to Angeles and make him play first for them, get what you can, they can afford him.
    That quarter of the salary thing is sort of a fallacy. We went into this offseason willing to spend if the right deals presented themselves, but they didn't. And I know we were likely to not spend a ton, or would have had to shuffle some salary, but as the money in baseball continues to increase, I see no reason we can't spend at least $110 million if we are a legit contender. Right now in baseball, there's only a handful of teams under $100 million salary. If we go into a true rebuild, we could be pretty likely to plummet below that number, but if we were trying to compete, I don't think we'd dip below the $105 that we're currently at.

    That being said, Braun's $20 million would account for 18% of the salary of $110 million payroll. While that isn't ideal, its still not horrible, especially if he can get back on pace to being a 4-6 WAR player, (6 WAR roughly represents about 80% of the player he was in his best season). Also, for what its worth, free agent calculations roughly stat that the cost per 1 WAR on the free agent market is between $5-7 million, depending on what WAR system you use and what calculation you use. So realistically, to justify a $20 million contract, Braun has to be a slightly over 3 win player, which is doable for the current Braun, who's accumulated 2.1 WAR already this season.

    If anything is holding us back, its not as much Braun's deal, its just as much about our inability to develop top level talent in the minors. The only thing our minors have really developed lately are league average type players. Most of our recent cheap guys, like Scooter, Davis, Nelson, and even Peralta or Segura if you count him as a cheap guy even though he didn't come through our farm, are typically at best 2 WAR type guys for the season. Essentially what that equates to is league average type players. If you compare that to a successful team that's under the $100 million mark, the Pirates, they have to players in Starling Marte and Gerrit Cole who've come through their farm to be on pace to 5+ WAR seasons, and they're making less than $2 million combined.

    I guess this is turning into a long rant, but basically what I'm saying is that a "small market" team can afford to build their team around a $20 million dollar player as long as they have some home grown talent that's controllable on the cheap that's better than league average and they're smart. It also doesn't help that the Brewers are paying guys like Aramis Ramirez, Matt Garza and Kyle Lohse a combined $37 million for a combined -2 WAR. If you allocate that $37 million, even at $7 million per WAR, to better players, you can be 7 WAR better this year already (you'd be plus 5 instead of minus 2).

    Quote Originally Posted by Superfly View Post
    He's most likely retiring a Brewer. Really he is not playing bad at all this season and isn't far off his pre-past couple of years issues. If he stays relatively hot for the rest of the season he'll finish somewhere around .300 / .360 / .550 / .910 which would be absolutely fabulous, both for him and for this organization.
    And he's actually been a little unlucky by some measures this year. I've accepted that he's likely never going to play 162 games in a season. He'll always be banged up some, but if he can hit at this current level and play 140-150 games a season, he'll still be a valuable player. He won't be a "steal" at $20 million the next couple years, but he'll be far from an albatross contract too. He'll likely be here for awhile, but if he finishes strong and we're committed to the rebuild, its possible a team who strikes out in free agency is willing to give up something of some value for him as his contract is pretty close to market value if he's healthy.

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