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  1. #1
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    Lionel20's QB Wins Above Average (WAA) Thread

    I typically have lengthy post, especially on this subject, but how important is QB play to team success?

    *My 2015 QB Rankings by WAA
    *Some base calculations for my WAA are explained here http://forums.prosportsdaily.com/sho...Projected-WAA)
    ^
    I've made some significant tweaks to the formula since however, for instance Passing 1st Downs = 8 yards *(.53), Rushing 1st Downs = 8 yards.
    *Postseason numbers are included in WAA

    Code:
    	2015			Pro WAA
    1	Cam Newton			3.24
    2	Carson Palmer			2.70
    3	Tom Brady			2.27
    4	Russell Wilson			2.23
    5	Drew Brees			1.27
    6	Ben Roethlisberger		1.27
    7	Jameis Winston			1.08
    8	Philip Rivers			0.92
    9	Alex Smith			0.88
    10	Blake Bortles			0.84
    11	Kirk Cousins			0.76
    12	Ryan Fitzpatrick		0.66
    13	Aaron Rodgers			0.45
    14	Matt Ryan			0.42
    15	Jay Culter			0.33
    16	Matthew Stafford		0.32
    17	Andy Dalton			0.22
    18	Eli Manning			0.18
    19	Tyrod Taylor			0.03
    20	Derek Carr			-0.14
    21	Ryan Tannehill			-0.15
    22	Teddy Bridgewater		-0.59
    23	Marcus Mariota			-0.67
    24	Sam Bradford			-1.07
    25	Joe Flacco			-1.23
    26	Brian Hoyer			-1.34
    27	Peyton Manning			-1.51

    The 2015 Season Conference Championship feature the worst qualifying QB (Peyton Manning) vs. the NFL's best qualifying QB (Cam Newton).

    Two top-10 QB's for example, Brees/Rivers played on below .500 teams, Rivers' Chargers = 4 -12. Two bottom five QB's, Hoyer/Bridgewater played on Division Winning teams, Bridgewaters' Vikings = 11 - 5.

    Does the media overhype the QB position, even in this era?

  2. #2
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    I'm assuming Carson Palmer's WAA also includes how much value he adds to the opposing team when he throws 4 picks and has 2 fumbles. Because his performance was more valuable to the Panthers than any other singular QB performance for their team this postseason.

  3. #3
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    Look at the records of good vs. bad QB's for all you need to see. Outliers exist, especially season to season, but usually involve a great defense (a-la Manning this year) or much more talented teams around them.

    Avg QB rating in wins, 103, avg in losses 79 this year and a 50% increase in QB fumbles and 60% increase in the sack rate in the losses. Avg running YPC was 4.05 in losses, 4.18 in wins. 30% increase in QB play in the wins vs. losses. 3% in the running. Rushing for 1st downs? increased .4% between wins and losses, passing? 6.4%. 1600% increase in difference between the two.

    Not saying the QB is the only thing that matters. But guess what one position has touches the ball half the time, has a responsibility in over half a teams plays that gain yards, become turnovers, gain first downs or score points. The QB. I love Watt, Joe Thomas, Revis, and Adrian Peterson. All easily the top at their positions the past decade. But I'd take the 3rd best QB of the decade (Brees or Ben?) easily if I had a chance to draft one with hindsight. I'd take Peyton or Brady by miles and miles and miles. It still is a team game, but just like a great left tackle is more important than a great punter, a great QB is more important than others.




    I am guessing you passed on watching football yesterday? I saw two games that almost completely hinged on playing and defending the QB position.

    Your top 3 QB's there (Which I'd agree on as the top 3 in the MVP race) ALL played in the AFC championship game. Where were Peterson, Martin and Davonte Freeman? Where were ODB, Calvin, Allen Robinson, AJ Green, Marshall, Julio, Brown, and Hopkins? Where was Joe Thomas, Trent Williams and Tyron Smith?


    The top two QB performers yesterday in those games went on to the SB. Top 8 QB's in QB rating this post-season are 7-1. Rest are 4-9.

    Bridgewater made it with a top 5 D and best running-back in the league and was 2-5 vs. teams with a winning record.

    Hoyer only made it because he had by far the best roster in a bad division and played well in the regular season. That's a good roster. They beat Titans twice, Jags twice, Bucs, Colts, Saints, for 7 of their 9 wins. 2-7 vs. the rest of the league. Their selling points was a home win vs. the Jets and their win over the Bengals where the D held Cincy to 6 points.


    Look at your top ones who missed. Brees and Bortles and their bottom 2 defenses. 2 rookies with bottom 7 defenses. Rivers, is there a worse line/run game? bottom 10 D.

    If you don't have a great QB you have to be so much better everywhere else to be good, if you do have a great QB you have to be so much worse to be bad.


    It isn't a 100% of the time thing, but as good of a trend as you can get and why 32 GM's make the QB position by far their biggest job. Ask Cleveland GM's how important drafting and getting a great line and secondary is when you can't get the QB.

    No rating is perfect on QB play but PFR's adjusted Yards per attempt isn't bad an is sortable. Over the past 10 years the top 10 teams in AYA ALL have winning records, the bottom 10 teams ALL have losing records. 8 of the 10 SB's in that time were won by those top 10 teams. Other two? Wilson who played really well that year, had great coaching, great run game, great D, and Flacco who had an all time post-season.

    And what about consistency... What teams have had long term consistency the past decade? Pats have, Steelers have, Colts of course. Packers have. top 4 teams in winning the past decade. Broncos are 5th but mostly their has been the past 4 years... Hmm.. Why is that? Then comes Balt, SD, and Seattle.

    Hmm, Brady, Big Ben, Manning, Rodgers, Manning for your top 5.

    Flip that you have Oak, STL, Cleveland, Det and Tampa. Nope nothing close to that there for any length of time.


    Every year you can point out some bad QB'd teams making the post-season. You can point out Hoyer or Ponder types every year or two. Guess what you see.. Changes, losses new staffs, new GM's.

    You can point out occasionally that a guy playing like Bridgewater can get Minny in the post-season. When have they won in the playoffs? Oh yeah, Favre's MVP type year. Culpepper's MVP type year. Cunningham's MVP type year.
    Last edited by slashsnake; 01-25-2016 at 01:03 PM.

  4. #4
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    ^ to add to Slashsnake's excellent points:

    There's a reason 12 of the last 13 seasons has seen a Brady, Peyton or Roethlisberger led team in the Superbowl.

  5. #5
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    But way to keep your shut down threads alive Lionel, new title, same first post. Lets keep this one quiet so it doesn't get shut down again?

  6. #6
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    Without a stud QB your asking everyone else to play at their best at all times, with a great QB he makes it easier on everyone involved.

  7. #7
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    Quote Originally Posted by valade16 View Post
    ^ to add to Slashsnake's excellent points:

    There's a reason 12 of the last 13 seasons has seen a Brady, Peyton or Roethlisberger led team in the Superbowl.
    Because the Steelers, Patriots and Colts have been good teams.

  8. #8
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    Quote Originally Posted by slashsnake View Post
    Look at the records of good vs. bad QB's for all you need to see. Outliers exist, especially season to season, but usually involve a great defense (a-la Manning this year) or much more talented teams around them.

    Avg QB rating in wins, 103, avg in losses 79 this year and a 50% increase in QB fumbles and 60% increase in the sack rate in the losses. Avg running YPC was 4.05 in losses, 4.18 in wins. 30% increase in QB play in the wins vs. losses. 3% in the running. Rushing for 1st downs? increased .4% between wins and losses, passing? 6.4%. 1600% increase in difference between the two.

    Not saying the QB is the only thing that matters. But guess what one position has touches the ball half the time, has a responsibility in over half a teams plays that gain yards, become turnovers, gain first downs or score points. The QB. I love Watt, Joe Thomas, Revis, and Adrian Peterson. All easily the top at their positions the past decade. But I'd take the 3rd best QB of the decade (Brees or Ben?) easily if I had a chance to draft one with hindsight. I'd take Peyton or Brady by miles and miles and miles. It still is a team game, but just like a great left tackle is more important than a great punter, a great QB is more important than others.




    I am guessing you passed on watching football yesterday? I saw two games that almost completely hinged on playing and defending the QB position.

    Your top 3 QB's there (Which I'd agree on as the top 3 in the MVP race) ALL played in the AFC championship game. Where were Peterson, Martin and Davonte Freeman? Where were ODB, Calvin, Allen Robinson, AJ Green, Marshall, Julio, Brown, and Hopkins? Where was Joe Thomas, Trent Williams and Tyron Smith?


    The top two QB performers yesterday in those games went on to the SB. Top 8 QB's in QB rating this post-season are 7-1. Rest are 4-9.

    Bridgewater made it with a top 5 D and best running-back in the league and was 2-5 vs. teams with a winning record.

    Hoyer only made it because he had by far the best roster in a bad division and played well in the regular season. That's a good roster. They beat Titans twice, Jags twice, Bucs, Colts, Saints, for 7 of their 9 wins. 2-7 vs. the rest of the league. Their selling points was a home win vs. the Jets and their win over the Bengals where the D held Cincy to 6 points.


    Look at your top ones who missed. Brees and Bortles and their bottom 2 defenses. 2 rookies with bottom 7 defenses. Rivers, is there a worse line/run game? bottom 10 D.

    If you don't have a great QB you have to be so much better everywhere else to be good, if you do have a great QB you have to be so much worse to be bad.


    It isn't a 100% of the time thing, but as good of a trend as you can get and why 32 GM's make the QB position by far their biggest job. Ask Cleveland GM's how important drafting and getting a great line and secondary is when you can't get the QB.

    No rating is perfect on QB play but PFR's adjusted Yards per attempt isn't bad an is sortable. Over the past 10 years the top 10 teams in AYA ALL have winning records, the bottom 10 teams ALL have losing records. 8 of the 10 SB's in that time were won by those top 10 teams. Other two? Wilson who played really well that year, had great coaching, great run game, great D, and Flacco who had an all time post-season.

    And what about consistency... What teams have had long term consistency the past decade? Pats have, Steelers have, Colts of course. Packers have. top 4 teams in winning the past decade. Broncos are 5th but mostly their has been the past 4 years... Hmm.. Why is that? Then comes Balt, SD, and Seattle.

    Hmm, Brady, Big Ben, Manning, Rodgers, Manning for your top 5.

    Flip that you have Oak, STL, Cleveland, Det and Tampa. Nope nothing close to that there for any length of time.


    Every year you can point out some bad QB'd teams making the post-season. You can point out Hoyer or Ponder types every year or two. Guess what you see.. Changes, losses new staffs, new GM's.

    You can point out occasionally that a guy playing like Bridgewater can get Minny in the post-season. When have they won in the playoffs? Oh yeah, Favre's MVP type year. Culpepper's MVP type year. Cunningham's MVP type year.
    I like F/O Defensive Efficiency metrics, in particular DVOA (it takes into consideration Strength of opponent). Obviously, "Defense" is not a singular position. But in my measures Peyton has been the worst QB in the NFL (among qualifiers), yet the Broncos locked up the #1 seed, and the AFC Championship.

    Top 2015 Defenses by DVOA:

    1. Denver -25.8
    2. Carolina -18.4
    3. Arizona -15.6
    4. Seattle -15.2

    In my opinion these were all top 5 teams this season.

    On the flipside, of the bottom 16 defenses according to DVOA, only 1, the Washington Redskins @ 9-7 made the playoffs.

    How telling is this?

  9. #9
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    Quote Originally Posted by slashsnake View Post
    But way to keep your shut down threads alive Lionel, new title, same first post. Lets keep this one quiet so it doesn't get shut down again?


    How many times has he done this? Thread gets locked, new thread title, exact same content posted inside.
    Quote Originally Posted by Norm View Post
    Having 4 All Pros on offense=fairy tale.
    Having a look in your eye=key to NFL success.

  10. #10
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    Quote Originally Posted by Norm View Post


    How many times has he done this? Thread gets locked, new thread title, exact same content posted inside.
    But this time it's different: 4 QB's on terrible teams (record wise) in the top 10. When 40% of your data goes against your point, it shows that your data proved nothing.

    PROCESSING

  11. #11
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    Quote Originally Posted by Norm View Post


    How many times has he done this? Thread gets locked, new thread title, exact same content posted inside.
    Um, this is clearly not the same discussion.

    I used my WAA to show how Peyton Manning, the NFL's worst starting QB in 2015 (qualifiers), is on the best team in the AFC.

    Peyton Manning highlighted this analysis..

    Since 2010,

    The top 5 defenses avg. 11.24 wins (including playoffs)
    The top 5 offenses avg. 11.84 wins (including playoffs)

    However in the postseason, teams w/ top 5 defensive DVOA's had a record of 26 - 16 in the playoffs (62% Win Pct.). Teams with the top 5 offensive DVOA's had a record of 22 - 26 (46% Win Pct.).

    What this shows is that the best offensive teams tend to excel more in the regular season by about a game, but it's the opposite in the postseason, where defensive teams, even more so, tend to achieve more success.

    QB play obviously has more of an offensive impact. It's just my opinion that defense gets undervalued and QB's in particular get overvalued. I don't think the Broncos this year are some anomaly. I think it's more uncommon for an elite defense to not reach far into the playoffs... the 2012 Bears come to mind as one of those rare examples.

    According DVOA, the most efficient offense was:
    Cincinnati = 0-1 in the PS
    Green Bay last year = 1-1
    Denver 2013 = 2-1
    New England 2012 = 1-1
    Green Bay 2011 = 0-1
    New England 2010 = 0-1

  12. #12
    Ian. Guest

  13. #13
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    Discussion,miscussion, its all the same. You pushing the stat you made up and trying to prove stuff with it. It's the same every time. And every time it erodes into a fight and gets locked. Then you wait 5 days and do it again.

    I guess I just figured you'd be tired of it by now. It never goes anywhere does it?
    Quote Originally Posted by Norm View Post
    Having 4 All Pros on offense=fairy tale.
    Having a look in your eye=key to NFL success.

  14. #14
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    Quote Originally Posted by warfelg View Post
    But this time it's different: 4 QB's on terrible teams (record wise) in the top 10. When 40% of your data goes against your point, it shows that your data proved nothing.
    I know he works hard on these stats but they're never near as good as establishing the things he thinks they are.
    Quote Originally Posted by Norm View Post
    Having 4 All Pros on offense=fairy tale.
    Having a look in your eye=key to NFL success.

  15. #15
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    Quote Originally Posted by Norm View Post
    Discussion,miscussion, its all the same. You pushing the stat you made up and trying to prove stuff with it. It's the same every time. And every time it erodes into a fight and gets locked. Then you wait 5 days and do it again.

    I guess I just figured you'd be tired of it by now. It never goes anywhere does it?
    ??

    Why would someone lock a thread because I'm using a formula to anchor a completely different discussion about QB's? My WAA is nothing more than a reference. I think you're in danger of trolling bruh. I would think you'd be tired with making these post in each of my threads lol

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