Levine: Dempster to decide in next 48 hours

[jdgrabo]

The problem is that last year is not a good example. Look at his career.

By and large he's nearly as effective away from Petco. He's had 2 bad years away from Petco, and in one of those years he was pretty bad *IN* Petco.

It's less of a concern than Demp is, IMHO.

His career splits have him at a 2.77 ERA at home and a 3.8 on the road with more hits, homers and earned runs away from PETCO. I'm only saying, you want to be sure the guy you are getting isn't propped up by his home numbers. To be clear, I think Peavy is very good- he can give you innings, K's, and he's tough with RISP. But we shouldn't be surprised if he appears more hittable pitching almost all his games outside of PETCO.

You are a guy who doesn't like the contracts the tie the hands of the org too much. What's your take on Peavy's contract if we were to take it on. We'd have some expensive pitchers- Z, Harden (he'll command $$) and hypothetically Peavy.

[Kirel]

at this point, i dont think i would want Green over TheRiot. i, however reserve the right to change my mind. Green had a horrible year, and TheRiot had a career year. i was never on any extreme of the Riot debate; but, i did want an upgrade last off season. i really have no idea what he will be next year. i would like an upgrade but, is Green that?

I wouldn't mind taking Greene on, putting him on the bench, and letting him fight for a job. Maybe getting out of Petco will cause that power potential to rebound.

I'd not annoint him the starting shortstop at this point, however.

[Kirel]

His career splits have him at a 2.77 ERA at home and a 3.8 on the road with more hits, homers and earned runs away from PETCO. I'm only saying, you want to be sure the guy you are getting isn't propped up by his home numbers. To be clear, I think Peavy is very good- he can give you innings, K's, and he's tough with RISP. But we shouldn't be surprised if he appears more hittable pitching almost all his games outside of PETCO.

You are a guy who doesn't like the contracts the tie the hands of the org too much. What's your take on Peavy's contract if we were to take it on. We'd have some expensive pitchers- Z, Harden (he'll command $$) and hypothetically Peavy.

What I meant is look at the years, not just the career numbers. His 2008(4.28 ERA away, 13 HR in 75 innings) and 2006(4.57 ERA away, 11 HR in 84 IP) numbers really cloud his career totals. In 2007 he had a 2.57 ERA away with 8 HR in 95 IP, in '05 2.97 ERA away and 5 HR in 87 IP, etc. The 3 year split is quite concerning since it happens to catch the very odd 2006 Jake Peavy.

Now, don't get me wrong, I expect his ERA to go up somewhat, but I fully expect a 3-3.4 ERA type performance.

And his contract concerns me, but not as badly as Zambrano's does to be honest. Or Sorianos. At this point, it doesn't matter as long as teh player looks liek they'll be useful throughout their contracts simply because the team is already tied down pretty tight, adding Peavy won't change that, it'll just change who gets the money.

[Jilly Bohnson]

His career splits have him at a 2.77 ERA at home and a 3.8 on the road with more hits, homers and earned runs away from PETCO. I'm only saying, you want to be sure the guy you are getting isn't propped up by his home numbers. To be clear, I think Peavy is very good- he can give you innings, K's, and he's tough with RISP. But we shouldn't be surprised if he appears more hittable pitching almost all his games outside of PETCO.

You are a guy who doesn't like the contracts the tie the hands of the org too much. What's your take on Peavy's contract if we were to take it on. We'd have some expensive pitchers- Z, Harden (he'll command $$) and hypothetically Peavy.

Peavy's career splits look really bad because he they were EXTREMELY drastic his first two years and last year, look at the past 5 years(basically since he's become good):

2004 - 2.21 Home, 2.33 Away
2005 - 2.81 Home, 2.98 Away
2006 - 3.75 Home, 4.57 Away
2007 - 2.51 Home, 2.57 Away
2008 - 1.74 Home, 4.28 Away

Basically, that's three years with almost no difference at all, one year with a noticeable difference, but nothing drastic, and one year with a crazy huge difference. It's something to keep in mind for sure, but I'm not worried about him leaving Petco.

[Heyyo1900]

Your presuming that he'll fail. There is a pretty good shot Howry will be like '07 howry next year instead of the mess we saw this year. Thats the entire point.

To back up your point, there is just as good of chance as Howry failing next year as there is of Dempster succeeding.

[behindmydesk]

fox sports said demp will resign 13 a year for 4. God damn't that's to much

[ABTY7]

fox sports said demp will resign 13 a year for 4. God damn't that's to much

It's a horrible deal... I mean really, really bad...

[Jilly Bohnson]

fox sports said demp will resign 13 a year for 4. God damn't that's to much

It's really about as low as can reasonably expected. Everyone's full of **** when they say the economy's going to hurt baseball contracts, we're going to see the same crazy spending this year we've seen the past few years. I bet Demp at 4/52 is going to look pretty good in a year or two, just like Lilly's "crazy" contract looks great right now. Hell, with all the other high-profile starters on the market 4/52 might look good in two months...

[behindmydesk]

It's a horrible deal... I mean really, really bad...

Really really bad is an understatement. Marquis's deal looks fair compared to this BS deal

[Jilly Bohnson]

Really really bad is an understatement. Marquis's deal looks fair compared to this BS deal

You're ridiculous sometimes you know that?

[Jerry34]

The Score said the Cubs are real close to a 4 year deal between $50 - 52 Million with Dempster.

[behindmydesk]

It's really about as low as can reasonably expected. Everyone's full of **** when they say the economy's going to hurt baseball contracts, we're going to see the same crazy spending this year we've seen the past few years. I bet Demp at 4/52 is going to look pretty good in a year or two, just like Lilly's "crazy" contract looks great right now. Hell, with all the other high-profile starters on the market 4/52 might look good in two months...

It's the cubs, so don't use the economy yet. The mid and small tier teams still might be not bidding. Except for the A's, because they cut payroll bad last year.

[Kirel]

It's really about as low as can reasonably expected. Everyone's full of **** when they say the economy's going to hurt baseball contracts, we're going to see the same crazy spending this year we've seen the past few years. I bet Demp at 4/52 is going to look pretty good in a year or two, just like Lilly's "crazy" contract looks great right now. Hell, with all the other high-profile starters on the market 4/52 might look good in two months...

Lilly seems more likely to perform than Demp though.

Here's hoping the lightning sticks around.

[behindmydesk]

You're ridiculous sometimes you know that?

So when Dempster puts up a 4 spot for 13 million, and Marquis puts up a 4.5 for his averaged out 7 million a year? You are going to still call me riduclous? Sorry JB I didn't drink the blue kool-aid this morning.

[Jilly Bohnson]

It's the cubs, so don't use the economy yet. The mid and small tier teams still might be not bidding. Except for the A's, because they cut payroll bad last year.

Keep that post in mind. If we don't see another rash of crazy contracts, stuff like Burnett getting between 5/75 and 5/90, Ollie Perez getting Ted Lilly money or more, Sabathia's rumored 6/140, Lowe getting 3/50, I'll admit I was wrong. But I'm pretty much positive we're going to see the same level of payroll escalation this winter as the past several.