Levine: Dempster to decide in next 48 hours

[behindmydesk]

Keep that post in mind. If we don't see another rash of crazy contracts, stuff like Burnett getting between 5/75 and 5/90, Ollie Perez getting Ted Lilly money or more, Sabathia's rumored 6/140, Lowe getting 3/50, I'll admit I was wrong. But I'm pretty much positive we're going to see the same level of payroll escalation this winter as the past several.

Yea that's what I'm saying. The yanks the boston's, the chicago's I still think tehy will bid high. It's the KC for Meche offers I dont' see happening. That could be why you think Dempster went for as "low' as you say. The mid tier offers weren't there, and the yanks were to busy trying to give the net weight of scandinavia in gold for CC.

[Jilly Bohnson]

So when Dempster puts up a 4 spot for 13 million, and Marquis puts up a 4.5 for his averaged out 7 million a year? You are going to still call me riduclous? Sorry JB I didn't drink the blue kool-aid this morning.

The difference is Marquis had little to no demand for him, and Dempster has a lot of demand. The actual money for Marquis' deal honestly isn't that bad, but him getting his money when there was ZERO news that any other teams were interested, and coming off the horrrific season he had in 05, that was the problem. That was overpaying for no good reason. With Demspter however, you can't really reasonably expect to get him for less than we're about to, you just can't.

[behindmydesk]

You do raise a good point, or atleast got me thinking. I wonder how much some of these teams are borrowed against. How much in short term or long term debt they have. I wonder if any sports teams can't get short term notes to carry their team like they used to in the past.

[Kirel]

The difference is Marquis had little to no demand for him, and Dempster has a lot of demand. The actual money for Marquis' deal honestly isn't that bad, but him getting his money when there was ZERO news that any other teams were interested, and coming off the horrrific season he had in 05, that was the problem. That was overpaying for no good reason. With Demspter however, you can't really reasonably expect to get him for less than we're about to, you just can't.

The problem isn't that his price is to high, it's that he's a bad buy at his price for this team.

[behindmydesk]

The difference is Marquis had little to no demand for him, and Dempster has a lot of demand. The actual money for Marquis' deal honestly isn't that bad, but him getting his money when there was ZERO news that any other teams were interested, and coming off the horrrific season he had in 05, that was the problem. That was overpaying for no good reason. With Demspter however, you can't really reasonably expect to get him for less than we're about to, you just can't.

I think Hendry is half retarded, but I don't see him just doubling an offer to get a guy to sign. Save for throwing an extra year at Sori or something like that. And just because the market was there for Dempster doesn't mean we had to partcipate.

[Jilly Bohnson]

Yea that's what I'm saying. The yanks the boston's, the chicago's I still think tehy will bid high. It's the KC for Meche offers I dont' see happening. That could be why you think Dempster went for as "low' as you say. The mid tier offers weren't there, and the yanks were to busy trying to give the net weight of scandinavia in gold for CC.

Maybe, maybe not. It could be an Aramis thing. Aramis could have made more money when he opted out, bank on that. However, he fully intended to come back the entire time, he just opted out to make sure no teams were planning on offering him Soriano money or something ridiculous. For all we know that's what's happening with Dempster. He hit FA just to make sure he didn't get a 5/75 or something sick like that, and then when he didn't he came back to the Cubs at a slight discount.

[ABTY7]

Knowing Hendry, this is a backloaded deal- something like 10M, 10M, 15M, 16M- which means in 2012 we'll have 52M tied up in three players- Demp, Soriano and Zambrano + another 16.5M for Ramirez if his club option is picked up...

All that is really besides the point- Demp at 13M per is just a joke really. Does 1998-2007 mean nothing? This is how organizations get in trouble- reward players for career years and ignore the total body of work...

[Jilly Bohnson]

The problem isn't that his price is to high, it's that he's a bad buy at his price for this team.

Unless we can get Peavy, is he? I mean, without Peavy or a FA starter we have a rotation like this next year

Zambrano
Harden
Lilly
Marquis
Shark/Gaudin/Marshall

That's not bad, but that's two huge question marks, in fact for guys like you two who are REALLY down on Zambrano, that's 3 huge question marks. The fact is that without Peavy, who none of us really know how attainable they are, we really need another quality pitcher. And Dempster at 13 million a year could very well could be the best guy available. This is one of those situations where you have to trust your talent evaluators as to how well Dempster can keep it up. Because Dempster's numbers weren't really flukey this year in the sense that he was extremely lucky, they were flukey in that he'd never done it before. Hendry and CO have always shown an outstanding eye for talent, I'm going to put my chips in with them on this one.

Not to mention, like I said a few posts up this 4/52 might even look good by the time this winter's over.

[Jilly Bohnson]

Knowing Hendry, this is a backloaded deal- something like 10M, 10M, 15M, 16M- which means in 2012 we'll have 52M tied up in three players- Demp, Soriano and Zambrano + another 16.5M for Ramirez if his club option is picked up...

All that is really besides the point- Demp at 13M per is just a joke really. Does 1998-2007 mean nothing? This is how organizations get in trouble- reward players for career years and ignore the total body of work...

I know this is going to piss off BMD, but what's the harm in backloading the contract? He'd have to be stupid to not backload it to really start paying out after 2010. I'd do something like 14M, 6M, 16M, 16M, to help alleviate the crunch we're going to feel next offseason.

[behindmydesk]

I know this is going to piss off BMD, but what's the harm in backloading the contract? He'd have to be stupid to not backload it to really start paying out after 2010. I'd do something like 14M, 6M, 16M, 16M, to help alleviate the crunch we're going to feel next offseason.

why would demp except 14 this year, then drop down to 6 next year. It's usually teh smallest this season then goes up

[Jilly Bohnson]

why would demp except 14 this year, then drop down to 6 next year. It's usually teh smallest this season then goes up

Why wouldn't he? Baseball contracts are guaranteed, he'll get his money no matter what. Why would he care if it's 10 this year and 10 next, or 14 this year and 6 next? The fact is 2010 looks to have a payroll crunch, so that's the only year where we really need to save money, have him take his discount that year, and pay him the difference the other three years.

[behindmydesk]

And also, yes backloading probably would be best for this year and next year. You know why, because he's already backloaded to the hilt previously. If he hadn't done that he wouldn't need to do it now.

[Kirel]

Unless we can get Peavy, is he? I mean, without Peavy or a FA starter we have a rotation like this next year

Zambrano
Harden
Lilly
Marquis
Shark/Gaudin/Marshall

That's not bad, but that's two huge question marks, in fact for guys like you two who are REALLY down on Zambrano, that's 3 huge question marks. The fact is that without Peavy, who none of us really know how attainable they are, we really need another quality pitcher. And Dempster at 13 million a year could very well could be the best guy available. This is one of those situations where you have to trust your talent evaluators as to how well Dempster can keep it up. Because Dempster's numbers weren't really flukey this year in the sense that he was extremely lucky, they were flukey in that he'd never done it before. Hendry and CO have always shown an outstanding eye for talent, I'm going to put my chips in with them on this one.

Not to mention, like I said a few posts up this 4/52 might even look good by the time this winter's over.

As it stands, Lilly is the only reliable arm in the rotation, Dempster or not.

I consider him as large a question mark as Zambrano or Harden or Samardzija. We just don't know what is going to happen.

The thing here is that I don't ever trust talent evaluators to make the right call on a player on the team. Far to likely to be positively biased. I could see Hendry doing this as much because he likes Dempster as becuase he thinks he'll succeed.

[behindmydesk]

Why wouldn't he? Baseball contracts are guaranteed, he'll get his money no matter what. Why would he care if it's 10 this year and 10 next, or 14 this year and 6 next? The fact is 2010 looks to have a payroll crunch, so that's the only year where we really need to save money, have him take his discount that year, and pay him the difference the other three years.

Time value of money, is the biggest reason why. I guarantee you his first year is less then the 2nd year of the deal. Who knows maybe Backloading Jim stopped doing it, but if it is backloaded it'll be a pyarmid up, not a jump up then down then jump up.

[Mr.Chi-Town]

11:51am: Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times also says there's a four-year, $52MM agreement and Dempster will sign the deal today. I consider this an acceptable price. There's a health risk, but Dempster already had Tommy John surgery. He can probably maintain an ERA below 4.00.

11:47am: Dan Graziano of the Newark Star-Ledger has a source saying the Cubs and Dempster have agreed on a four-year, $52MM deal.

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