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Thread: Calculating WAR

  1. #16
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    war huh yeah!

  2. #17
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    This is fantastic Seamhead, really, thanks a lot for posting it.

    Quick question, in the pre-entered records that are in the spreadsheet what have you used for your defensive values? Rally's fielding proj.? If so where would I go about finding those?

    Also, just out of interest, you mention changing the regression rate on a player-by-player basis, using players on opposite ends of the spectrum, what regression rates would you use for, say, Hanley Ramirez and Carlos Delgado?

    Thanks.
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  3. #18
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    Quote Originally Posted by zzConflict View Post
    This is fantastic Seamhead, really, thanks a lot for posting it.
    No problem. And thanks for the compliment.

    Quick question, in the pre-entered records that are in the spreadsheet what have you used for your defensive values? Rally's fielding proj.? If so where would I go about finding those?
    Really, it depends on what I was able to find. If I could UZR, then I'd do that (I'll link you to the spreadsheet with values from 03-06 if you'd like). If I could use plus/minus, then I'd use that. If, not then I'd convert The Hardball Times fielding statistics to a plus/minus stat using this spreadsheet of mine:

    RZR Plus/Minus

    If you use internet explorer, you can just copy and paste the 4 metrics needed (BIZ, PLAYS, RZR, OOZ), and since they're in order, you don't have to copy them on at a time.

    I also took a look at the Fans Scouting Report. Those are always useful.

    Now that I know I can trust Rally's fielding projections, I'll use those since they are also a measure of true talent.

    Here are Rally's:

    IF:

    http://home.comcast.net/~briankaat/if2009.htm

    OF:

    http://home.comcast.net/~briankaat/of2009.htm

    I'm pretty sure they're in runs per 150 format. To convert to wins:

    x runs divided by 10.5


    Also, just out of interest, you mention changing the regression rate on a player-by-player basis, using players on opposite ends of the spectrum, what regression rates would you use for, say, Hanley Ramirez and Carlos Delgado?
    Hanley has yet to turn 25, but he'll be 25 by the time next season rolls around. Very athletic with young player skills. Even players entering their prime see some sort of loss in their WAR from season to season, so something like this:

    2009: -.1
    2010: -.1
    2011: -.1
    2012: -.1
    2013: -.2
    2014: -.3
    2015: -.3

    Which, on the spreadsheet would be this (It's cumulative):


    2009: -.1
    2010: -.2
    2011: -.3
    2012: -.4
    2013: -.6
    2014: -.9
    2015: -1.2

    So he'd still be like a 5 WAR player, which is superstar-esq.

    As for Delgado, he's 36, and will turn 37 halfway through next season. He's already shown to be on the decline, and his ability to hit same handed-ness pitchers has completely eroded over the past few seasons.

    This:

    2009: -.5
    2010: -.7
    2011: -.9
    2012: - 1
    2013: -1.2

    etc., etc.

    On the spreadsheet, it'd be this:

    2009: -.5
    2010: -1.2
    2011: -2.1
    2012: -3.1
    2013: - 4.2

    Don't have much hope for him, as he'll probably, and hopefully, begin to lose playing time over the next couple of years. Really, he should just be platooning now-a-days, as he also has no defensive value. I might be a little moderate with that.

  4. #19
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    I don't know if you mentioned this or if you already know it, but you could also Justin Inaz's fielding system which combines the FSR, RZR and ZR into one fielding metric.
    They can be found here: http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?k..._hs6ROEQ&gid=1

    And then I had a question. What do you do for guys that changed leagues (Teixeira, Manny, Kotchman, etc.)?

    The way I've been doing it is make a Teixeira NL and Teixeira AL. I put his respective wOBA* in each, and then for the fielding I just divide it up based on innings played.

    I don't know if that's accurate, but I don't think defense is actually harder in the AL like everything else.

    I'm also curious as how to do platoon players who play a good deal off SS/2B for example. I kinda did the same there, but keeping their wOBA the same at each position, which seems to only slightly affect their final WAR. Again, I'm still not sure about that.

  5. #20
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gigantes4Life View Post
    I don't know if you mentioned this or if you already know it, but you could also Justin Inaz's fielding system which combines the FSR, RZR and ZR into one fielding metric.
    They can be found here: http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?k..._hs6ROEQ&gid=1

    And then I had a question. What do you do for guys that changed leagues (Teixeira, Manny, Kotchman, etc.)?


    The way I've been doing it is make a Teixeira NL and Teixeira AL. I put his respective wOBA* in each, and then for the fielding I just divide it up based on innings played.

    I don't know if that's accurate, but I don't think defense is actually harder in the AL like everything else.
    I actually had to do that. What I did was I calculated each individually 1st, then I added it together. As for defense, if you're using the plus/minus spreadsheet I linked, you can do the same. THT separates a player's fielding by leagues, so do it individually, then add.

    Or you can just use the total. There's no evidence to support a claim that it's harder to field in the AL, or vice versa.


    I'm also curious as how to do platoon players who play a good deal off SS/2B for example. I kinda did the same there, but keeping their wOBA the same at each position, which seems to only slightly affect their final WAR. Again, I'm still not sure about that.
    You can simply adjust the player's adjustment (it might be hidden, if it is, just highlight the sheet and select unhide, you'll see it as Adjustment) depending on the playing time. IE, if a player played 50% of the time at SS and 50% of the time:

    (3.25 * 50) + (2.75 *50) / 100

    (162.5 + 137.5) /100 = 3

    Adjustment would be 3

    Or if a player plays 70% at SS and 30% at 2B:

    (3.25 * 70) + (2.75 *30) / 100

    227.5 + 82.5 = 3.1

    Adjustment would be 3.1

  6. #21
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    He woulda been ****ed in Washington...
    Update: Turns out he was ****ed in Kansas City too

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  7. #22
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    Quote Originally Posted by Seamhead View Post
    I actually had to do that. What I did was I calculated each individually 1st, then I added it together. As for defense, if you're using the plus/minus spreadsheet I linked, you can do the same. THT separates a player's fielding by leagues, so do it individually, then add.

    Or you can just use the total. There's no evidence to support a claim that it's harder to field in the AL, or vice versa.




    You can simply adjust the player's adjustment (it might be hidden, if it is, just highlight the sheet and select unhide, you'll see it as Adjustment) depending on the playing time. IE, if a player played 50% of the time at SS and 50% of the time:

    (3.25 * 50) + (2.75 *50) / 100

    (162.5 + 137.5) /100 = 3

    Adjustment would be 3

    Or if a player plays 70% at SS and 30% at 2B:

    (3.25 * 70) + (2.75 *30) / 100

    227.5 + 82.5 = 3.1

    Adjustment would be 3.1
    OK. If you change the adjustment, do you just add the plus/minus between the two positions together? I get the logic, I'm just thought that the value of plays from different positions were unequal.

  8. #23
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gigantes4Life View Post
    OK. If you change the adjustment, do you just add the plus/minus between the two positions together? I get the logic, I'm just thought that the value of plays from different positions were unequal.
    If the metric uses a baseline (average in this case), which plus/minus does, then they are equal.

  9. #24
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    Oh that's right. Alright thanks .

  10. #25
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    I think my mind was just blown.

    He woulda been ****ed in Washington...
    Update: Turns out he was ****ed in Kansas City too

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  11. #26
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    I went ahead and moved this here

  12. #27
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    The spreadsheet isn't really necessary anymore since Fangraphs carries WAR ("Win Values"). I only use it for projections, and that's very rare.

    And here's a good, short explanation of WAR:

    Pitcher WAR

    Position Player WAR

    Fangraphs also has like a 7-part series, for each pitchers and position players, which explains everything. It's very in-depth and thorough.

  13. #28
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    Yeah I don't use the spreadsheets anymore either, I can do them myself almost as quickly.

    However, if you want to combine +/- and UZR or FSR then it's different, as fangraphs doesn't help you there. Although, you could simply subtract their fielding and then add your own.

  14. #29
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    Quote Originally Posted by Seamhead View Post
    The spreadsheet isn't really necessary anymore since Fangraphs carries WAR ("Win Values"). I only use it for projections, and that's very rare.

    And here's a good, short explanation of WAR:

    Pitcher WAR

    Position Player WAR

    Fangraphs also has like a 7-part series, for each pitchers and position players, which explains everything. It's very in-depth and thorough.
    Thank you for posting this.

  15. #30
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    Alright ill admit I don't really get this. Is WAR supposed to show the monetary value of a player or the player's value to the team?
    Jackie Bradley Junior.... that is all

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