Best Pitcher of All-Time

[bagwell368]

I am almost there, not quiet. He is one of the ones I wish I had seen in person. Clemens attributes Seaver's time in Boston as the factor that turned him from a thrower into a pitcher. I always thought Seaver would have made a good coach.

OK, who do you have in front of Seaver? Would it be Koufax?

Seaver's best 12 years in order of WAR, followed by Koufax's best 12:

09.5, 09.2, 7.7, 7.6, 7.5, 6.4, 6.0, 5.8, 5.7, 5.7, 5.4, 4.8

10.8, 10.8, 8.2, 7.8, 5.6, 4.4, 2.3, 1.8, 1.3, 1.1, 0.8, -0.4

it was a trick, Koufax only had 12 seasons

Oh yeah, Seaver had 8 more seasons then Koufax not listed:

4.8, 4.2, 3.7, 3.4, 2.5, 2.2, 1.9, 1.6, -0.5, -0.8 - add them up = 23.0

105.3 WAR for Seaver; 54.5 for Koufax; 63.5 for Palmer; 85.6 for Gibby; 93.4 for Spahn... go back - he beats Feller. Grove at 98.3 is the first guy with an argument against Seaver IMO (1925-1941), and RC in our time (if the cloud doesn't hang over him too heavily).

[papipapsmanny]

I could make a case for ryan

2.97 Fip

over 60 WAR according to fangraphs which excludes his first 12 seasons in the league

the fact that he was real good over a real long period of time

[Rangers&MetsFTW]

LOL

I think calling Bob Gibson "Bobby" might be asking for a fastball at your head. Walter Johnson would probably be top on my list, but I suppose I could make arguements for other guys simply because of eras and stuff.

[Rangers&MetsFTW]

I could make a case for ryan

2.97 Fip

over 60 WAR according to fangraphs which excludes his first 12 seasons in the league

the fact that he was real good over a real long period of time

This tells me that he was a good pitcher. Definitely great at times, no question. However, the point was that he is not the best of all time. Throwing out statistics in a melancholy fashion doesn't make the case for best of all time. These are all things that some other pitchers have accomplished.

When looking for the best you have to show things that set that person aside from the rest.

[papipapsmanny]

i don't think he was either, just saying you could make a case, because he had such longevity in the modern era.

[bagwell368]

I could make a case for ryan

2.97 Fip

over 60 WAR according to fangraphs which excludes his first 12 seasons in the league

the fact that he was real good over a real long period of time

No expert worth his salt has Ryan over #20 all time, and most have him around #25-27.

He only had a handful of years with great ERA+, w/o exception they were all short of innings compared to his more average years.

4 years over a 128 ERA+ (har har in a 27 year career):

195 - 149 IP
142 - 211.2
141 - 299
140 - 173

He holds the walk record by a far greater percentage then the K record. His winning percentage over his teams is pitifully low.

He's got a 84.8 BR WAR which is certainly HOF level - 16th all time (5386 IP). Pedro 75.90 WAR - 23rd all time (2827 IP). That's why Ryan isn't 16th all time, because his WAR/IP isn't so hot. Plus he has no Cy Youngs, or rings.

ASG consideration usually starts showing up around 5.0 WAR, Cy at 8.0 WAR:

Ryan: 08.3, 7.9, 6.3, 6.2, 5.5, 4.9
PMar: 10.1, 8.4, 8.2, 7.4, 6.6, 5.7, 5.5 - in 18 years

Ryan's neutral ERA is 3.89

Pedro 2.84, Ford 3.14, Seaver 3.26, Schilling 3.30, Saberhagen 3.49, Palmer 3.51, Carlton 3.56, Glavine 3.57

Ryan simply isn't elite enough even with his long career to consider for the top 20.

Not in the conversation.

[SHOELESSJOE3]

Looks like some people didn't do their home work. Ryan so high on the list.
One of the greatest ever Grover Alexander not even one vote. Lefty Grove, come on.

[bagwell368]

Looks like some people didn't do their home work. Ryan so high on the list.
One of the greatest ever Grover Alexander not even one vote. Lefty Grove, come on.

x2

[papipapsmanny]

No expert worth his salt has Ryan over #20 all time, and most have him around #25-27.

He only had a handful of years with great ERA+, w/o exception they were all short of innings compared to his more average years.

4 years over a 128 ERA+ (har har in a 27 year career):

195 - 149 IP
142 - 211.2
141 - 299
140 - 173

He holds the walk record by a far greater percentage then the K record. His winning percentage over his teams is pitifully low.

He's got a 84.8 BR WAR which is certainly HOF level - 16th all time (5386 IP). Pedro 75.90 WAR - 23rd all time (2827 IP). That's why Ryan isn't 16th all time, because his WAR/IP isn't so hot. Plus he has no Cy Youngs, or rings.

ASG consideration usually starts showing up around 5.0 WAR, Cy at 8.0 WAR:

Ryan: 08.3, 7.9, 6.3, 6.2, 5.5, 4.9
PMar: 10.1, 8.4, 8.2, 7.4, 6.6, 5.7, 5.5 - in 18 years

Ryan's neutral ERA is 3.89

Pedro 2.84, Ford 3.14, Seaver 3.26, Schilling 3.30, Saberhagen 3.49, Palmer 3.51, Carlton 3.56, Glavine 3.57

Ryan simply isn't elite enough even with his long career to consider for the top 20.

Not in the conversation.

Ok.. he holds the walk percentage..... Winning Percentage is a pretty terrible stat, ERA+ is just a product of ERA which isn't a great stat.

(I don't think he is number 1 but I def put him in the top 20)

His Ridiculous K Rates. He had 17 seasons in a row with at least 150 innings pitched and a FIP under 3.20 (Fangraphs). According to Fangraphs (which seems to have updated some) he had a career WAR of 92.3 which excludes his first 6 seasons. So going on Fangraphs WAR he would have put up a WAR over 100.

Once again he had sustained success over a really long period of time, which I put stock into.

Ryan is currently 4th all time on Fangraphs career WAR leaders for pitchers, and he could jump johnson for 3rd all time if all his seasons were added up.

Also, back to longevity, his last 4 whole seasons pitching (At least 150 inning pitched in my eyes can count as a whole season), in terms of WAR were

7.6
5.4
5.1
3.7

Not bad for being of the age 42-45 respectably.

Again Im not giving him credit simply because he played long, but because he played really well over a long period of time

[p eter]

1.Walter Johnson(Great numbers played in an era where strikeouts were hard to get also he didn't throw inside because with no helmet he knew he could kill somebody.)
2.Pete Alexander(Similar numbers to Johnson Alexander was a drunk and who pitched in a hitters ballpark.)
3.Lefty Gomez(He was so good in the minors they didnt want to bring him up until he was 25. He was also one of the few hall of fame pitchers of the 20's)
4.Roger Clemmens(Nothing to say)
5.Cy Young(Started out in a hitters era and ended up in a pitchers era Young had to reform his pitching because his arm went out. He went throwning hard to soft in a matter of seasons and had to relearn how to pitch).

[SHOELESSJOE3]

1.Walter Johnson(Great numbers played in an era where strikeouts were hard to get also he didn't throw inside because with no helmet he knew he could kill somebody.)
2.Pete Alexander(Similar numbers to Johnson Alexander was a drunk and who pitched in a hitters ballpark.)
3.Lefty Gomez(He was so good in the minors they didnt want to bring him up until he was 25. He was also one of the few hall of fame pitchers of the 20's)
4.Roger Clemmens(Nothing to say)
5.Cy Young(Started out in a hitters era and ended up in a pitchers era Young had to reform his pitching because his arm went out. He went throwning hard to soft in a matter of seasons and had to relearn how to pitch).

Hi Pete, I would guess just a mistake on the Lefty, did you mean Lefty Grove.
Nice to see someone didn't forget Alexander.

[p eter]

Hi Pete, I would guess just a mistake on the Lefty, did you mean Lefty Grove.
Nice to see someone didn't forget Alexander.

Yes I meant Grove, thanks for the correction.

[SHOELESSJOE3]

Yes I meant Grove, thanks for the correction.

Sure thing, no problem, I've done the same, more then once.

[bagwell368]

Ok.. he holds the walk percentage..... Winning Percentage is a pretty terrible stat, ERA+ is just a product of ERA which isn't a great stat.

Winning percentage over/under team in a given year is bunk. Over a long career it is very telling. Go look at Pedro's numbers then Ryan's, or Clemens and Hunter. ERA+ alone has flaws, but if you also include tERA and DERA, then you have something. I'm getting more and more off of FIP if thats what you have in mind.

(I don't think he is number 1 but I def put him in the top 20)

I have him around 27 which is less of a difference to say 15, then 5 is 12.

His Ridiculous K Rates. He had 17 seasons in a row with at least 150 innings pitched and a FIP under 3.20 (Fangraphs). According to Fangraphs (which seems to have updated some) he had a career WAR of 92.3 which excludes his first 6 seasons. So going on Fangraphs WAR he would have put up a WAR over 100.

150 or even 215 innings in his day isn't that impressive. BR WAR has his total at 84.8 WAR, which scales to 92.3 about normally for those two systems. Ryan's first six years in BR WAR was:

-0.3, 1.5, 0.8, 1.9, -0.2, 6.3 - if he gets to 100 it isn't by much.

Now what about the value of pitcher that takes 27 years to get to 84.8 BR WAR in 5386 IP?

It took Gibson 3884 IP to get to 85.6
It took Seaver 4783 IP to get to 105.3
It took Schilling 3261 IP to get to 69.7

All better WAR per IP, there are dozens and dozens more, so Ryan can't get in on peak, only on career. But for a guy with such a tough guy rep, isn't it odd that he was top 10 in innings only 9 times? (6, 3, 1, 7, 3, 7, 8, 9, 8). And top 5 only 3 years - yeeeech... For a guy with such a stellar reputation isn't it odd he won zero Cy Youngs? And is only 28th all time in Win Shares (for an Award that has only existed for 55 years?). Since baseball is more then double that in age, where does that put Ryan? 56th?

How about some others?

Adj Pitching Wins (60th)
Wild Pitches (2nd)
Adj Pitching Runs (68th)

He's a HOF'er for sure, but when your top comps are:

Carlton (3 great, 4 very good, 3 quite good, 6 not so hot)
Niekro - similar for all the rest.
Sutton
Perry
Blyleven

it's obvious that he fits into the many innings guys with 3-4 great peak years, 4-5 very good years, and a lot of filler.

Once again he had sustained success over a really long period of time, which I put stock into.

Or he couldn't maintain a peak, and just had a lot of stamina.

I mean he got 2.0 WAR seasons off a 233.2 ('80 w/ a 98 ERA+) and 220 IP ('88 w/ a 94 ERA+) seasons. I mean, he's adding to the WAR, but those are not good seasons.

He had 5 seasons above a 4.9 BR WAR (8.3, 7.9, 6.3, 6.2, 5.5) in 1977, 1973, 1972, 1974, 1987 - lets go look at this 1972-1977 peak. His ERA+ in those years was:

128, 123, 118, 102, 99, 141 - that's his peak? He's a brute force thrower, that threw a lot of innings over a lot of years, but never really threw a lot of innings in a year except from 1972-1980 - viola! the source of the WAR with the very meh ERA+ numbers.

284, 326, 332, 198, 284, 299, 234, 222, 233

before that:

3, 134, 89, 131, 152

after that:

149, 250, 196, 183, 232, 178, 211, 220, 239, 204, 173, 157, 66

Ryan is currently 4th all time on Fangraphs career WAR leaders for pitchers, and he could jump johnson for 3rd all time if all his seasons were added up.

Well, if they only have what 1974 onward - you have Clemens, Maddux, RJ. But the accident of years has nipped off several of his contemporaries who were better pitchers.

Seaver
Niekro
Perry
Blyleven
Gibson

on straight career numbers, toss in peak, and you get Carlton, Pedro, and maybe more. So sorry, 4th on the short FG list does nothing for you case. He's 16th on BR, and that's career only - no peak, which Ryan has a very poor peak compared to almost everyone in the top 30 SP's.

[QUOTE[Again Im not giving him credit simply because he played long, but because he played really well over a long period of time[/QUOTE]

Yes he played really well over a long period - no question. But for a guy being offered up as #1, #4, #15, really well isn't enough, where is really great?

[bagwell368]

1.Walter Johnson(Great numbers played in an era where strikeouts were hard to get also he didn't throw inside because with no helmet he knew he could kill somebody.)
2.Pete Alexander(Similar numbers to Johnson Alexander was a drunk and who pitched in a hitters ballpark.)
3.Lefty Gomez(He was so good in the minors they didnt want to bring him up until he was 25. He was also one of the few hall of fame pitchers of the 20's)
4.Roger Clemmens(Nothing to say)
5.Cy Young(Started out in a hitters era and ended up in a pitchers era Young had to reform his pitching because his arm went out. He went throwning hard to soft in a matter of seasons and had to relearn how to pitch).

Lefty Grove was owned by the Baltimore minor league team that was independent and they were just as happy to own him then sell him. He could have pitched in the Majors 2-3 years earlier.

Young's 511 "Wins" is one of the biggest frauds in baseball history. He won 106 of those throwing from 50' from home. He pitched over 422 innings in 3 straight years before 1894, and amassed 141 starts in those same 3 years. After that he hit the low 400's two more times, and never started as many games again. He also had a couple of fat years in 1901-1902 in the new AL which was a weak league until 1903. I would call it it the Walter Johnson Award myself.