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  1. #1
    Join Date
    Sep 2010
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    Slot vs. Overslot Bonuses

    Pulled this from a site with forums known by fans for it's use of sabermetric data. Posting a condensed version. I'm sure you can find the original if you like. It doesn't seem definitively conclusive, but this is part 1 of 2 parts.

    Part 1. Condensed

    Since it’s creation, the August 15th deadline for teams to sign drafted players has become one of the most important days on the baseball calendar. Interspersed among the headlines of which early picks have signed are the reports of players drafted in later rounds, sometimes even outside of the first ten rounds, signing six and seven-figure deals. These ‘over-slot’ signees are a bit of a mystery. Few outside of the scouting industry know much of anything about these players, and it’s difficult to judge the value of an over-slot signee relative to a team’s other draft picks. Is the 12th rounder who signed for $500,000 a better prospect than the third rounder who signed for $400,000? What type of premium do teams pay to sign players to over-slot deals? How much does it cost to sign a ‘second-round’ talent late in the draft? Can it even be done? These are the questions I sought to shed light on.

    For each draftee I looked at the bonus they received, the round they were picked, and the value corresponding to where they ranked on Baseball America’s Top 100 list or, if they did not make BA’s top 100 list, how John Sickels ranked them....

    With less than ideal sample sizes, there were no statistically significant differences between the return on players signed to over-slot deals who were signed in the 11th through 20th rounds and those players signed to over-slot deals after the 20th round across bonus pools....

    ...An important thing to note is that just because teams pay a premium to sign over-slot players in the later rounds, this analysis does not suggest that over-slot deals are bad investments for teams. On the contrary, over-slot signees still project to provide surplus value, teams just have to pay more to acquire the player, thus cutting into the surplus value the player provides.

    In a subsequent post, we’ll look at over-slot signing in the first ten rounds, and some differences between the return on over-slot pitchers and position players. -- by Reed MacPhail - August 3, 2011
    Last edited by Dugmet; 08-03-2011 at 03:22 PM.
    Better exiled than succumb to hypocrisy. -- Soe Hok Gie

  2. #2
    Join Date
    Jun 2009
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    4,550
    i dont believe fangraphs is taboo round these parts

    http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index...amateur-draft/

  3. #3
    Join Date
    Sep 2010
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    Part 2. Condensed....

    Today, we’ll look at over-slot signees selected from the supplemental to the tenth round, differences among position players and pitchers, as well as differences between high school and college players signed to over-slot deals.

    The results paint a fairly rosy picture for over-slot signings. In several of the groups, over-slot signees outperformed players from the round that typically received that bonus. (For example, players who received over-slot bonuses between $700,000 – $900,000 outperformed typical supplemental round picks in the sample, who received an average bonus of $812,000). In fact, aside from the $200,000 – $350,000 group, each group of over-slot signees compares at least reasonably well with typical players from the round corresponding to that particular bonus.

    The finding that players signed in the early rounds to over-slot deals of near and over a million dollars have been yielded a similar return to players signed for that amount in the late first and supplemental rounds may mean that teams should be more aggressive in targeting players who slip early in the draft due to concerns about their signability.

    I don’t need to do much pontificating about what the data suggest in this case. College and high school over-slot signees of each bonus group ranked similarly, suggesting that teams are appropriately valuing both groups relative to the other.

    Taking this study as a whole suggests that over-slot signings have have been good investments for teams, particularly those over-slot signees selected from the supplemental to the tenth round. Over-slot pitchers may outperform position players, but more data is needed. And college and high school over-slot signees appear to have provided equivalent value. There are obvious some short comings associated with using a player’s rank on a prospect list as the measure of future big league performance, but unfortunately the limited availability of bonus data before 2005 prevents us from using a more fitting metric.
    http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index...gnings-part-2/
    Better exiled than succumb to hypocrisy. -- Soe Hok Gie

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