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  1. #46
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    Quote Originally Posted by BG7 View Post
    I think the Hillary problem would be seen in the South (minus Arkansas) for the most part, which would have no bearing on the states I listed in play of ND, Indiana, Montana, Ohio, Florida, etc.

    If Obama can successfully merge his supporters with Hillary's, they are going to run rampant.

    For example, the Indiana primary. Hillary and Obama had almost 1.28 million combined voters. George Bush won that with 1.48 million in 2004, with Kerry only getting 0.97 million in 2004.

    I think Hillary really beefs up the ticket in Indiana, Ohio, Florida, and Pennsylvania. That is the election right there. Hillary should have no adverse effect on the ticket in New Mexico (she should help here actually). She might hurt him in places like North Dakota, Montana, Virginia, but where she helps him, is more important than those states, and more likely to turn Obama then ND/MT, except Virginia is in play for Obama even without a blowout.

    I think it is Survey USA, who has been doing the VP polling. Obama/Hillary ticket routinely kicks the McCain/Romney ticket's *** (which I think will be the ticket).
    I really think you are oversimplifying it. For one, the Indiana Primary was an open primary, so independents or republicans were allowed to vote. McCain had clinced the nomination by then (May 6th). Also, that was an eternity ago in terms of politics, and world events as well as canidates posistions (on both sides) have changed. I just don't think it's as simple is a you make it to be.

  2. #47
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    Quote Originally Posted by BG7 View Post
    And here's why I think Hillary will be the veep. They have pretty much closed the book on her, with the shortlist supposively being Bayh, Biden, and Kaine. A large contingent of her supporters have said, oh right, lets give up, get on the Obama train. Then there is that contingent that says, "I won't vote for Obama no matter what". I think by excluding her from this supposive shortlist, that contingent shifts to "I guess I will support him if Hillary is the veep". Now with Hillary thought to be out of the running, the once inevitable veep choice will be a big surprise.
    No. The PUMA people are basically a bunch of racists that won't vote for him no matter what. It doesn't matter if Hillary's the veep. They've said it themselves. They're only happy if she's the nominee. Some of them had even said that they didn't want her to take him as her veep back in March...
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  3. #48
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    Quote Originally Posted by ari1013 View Post
    No. The PUMA people are basically a bunch of racists that won't vote for him no matter what. It doesn't matter if Hillary's the veep. They've said it themselves. They're only happy if she's the nominee. Some of them had even said that they didn't want her to take him as her veep back in March...
    The PUMA's are only a small group, and some of them are lying even, that they won't for Barack, especially if she's on the ticket.

  4. #49
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    Paris Hilton releases her own ad

    http://www.funnyordie.com/videos/64ad536a6d

    One of the comments in the thread under her video ...
    John McCain just made me like Paris Hiltonůso I guess he has done something in this campaign other than make cheap shots at his opponent!
    Den, feel free to move this if it's not up to forum standards! lol.

  5. #50
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    Yeah, I'll put this on expiring redirect into the main thread about the ad...

    That was actually better than the awfulness I was bracing myself for... The part where she speaks "seriously" about "her energy plan" was almost shocking - just to hear several intelligent sentences strung together coming out of her mouth - even if she didn't understand the script she was reading.
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  6. #51
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    I thought it was kind of funny. Did I say that out loud? I like the fact that the "celebrity" spoofed the old wrinkled guy in return. I used to think that the Republicans let McCain run so they could bring a better candidate forward in the next election cycle. The big surprise is that voters polled are actually buying any of his ads and spin, and the polling is staying close.

    "Fool me once, shame ... shame on ... you." Long, uncomfortable pause. "Fool me — can't get fooled again!"

    Who knows, maybe voters are ready to be fooled once more ...
    Last edited by ink; 08-06-2008 at 12:46 AM.

  7. #52
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    Okay, gcoll, here's an Obama ad I'll call "negative"

    http://my.barackobama.com/page/content/embrace_ad

    Pushback on the "celebrity ad" - by use of the same technique, basically.
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  8. #53
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    ouch! that's definitely a negative ad. Is he televising this? I really hope he doesn't put it up during the Olympics. His current Olympic ad is much better.
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  9. #54
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    Thread title changed since we've moved far beyond the original headline about the first ad to a place where the very notion of "celebrity" has become a campaign issue in itself.
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  10. #55
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    Quote Originally Posted by DenButsu View Post
    http://my.barackobama.com/page/content/embrace_ad

    Pushback on the "celebrity ad" - by use of the same technique, basically.
    At least this defeats the whole "Obama won't go down that road" **** I had to argue with the past few days.

  11. #56
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    Quote Originally Posted by gcoll View Post
    At least this defeats the whole "Obama won't go down that road" **** I had to argue with the past few days.
    He finally caved on that, but not without resistance - and he was not the initiator of the negativity in this campaign. I find it unfortunate that he took the bait and allowed himself to get dragged down into the muck with McCain, but dragged down he was.
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  12. #57
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    Now this (from CNN) to me is a much, MUCH better response to the McCain ad than the Obama "No, you're a celebrity" ad:

    Obama camp says their donors portrayed as 'mindless fans'

    (CNN) — Barack Obama's campaign manager said Monday John McCain's now-famous Pairs Hilton/Britney Spears television ad wasn't just insulting to the Illinois senator, but to his campaign's legion of supporters as well.

    And in an e-mail to those supporters Monday, campaign manager David Plouffe is hoping a backlash from that television spot will push Obama over the two million individual donor mark by the party's convention at the end of August — only six months after the campaign topped one million donors.

    "While supporters like you are out knocking on doors, registering new voters, and organizing in your local communities, our opponents are not even trying to match your efforts. Instead, they're spending millions to spread the smear that Barack is just a 'celebrity' and that our grassroots movement is just a bunch of mindless fans," Plouffe wrote in the e-mail in what is one of his harshest assessments to date of McCain's 'Celebrity' ad.

    To me it's a much smarter response than "I know you are but what am I" for Obama to twist the McCain message into "He's not insulting me, he's insulting you". I saw this idea floated by someone who e-mailed a liberal blog... I think, at least among Obama supporters (and perhaps some undecideds as well), it should resonate really well.
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  13. #58
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    Quote Originally Posted by DenButsu View Post
    He finally caved on that, but not without resistance - and he was not the initiator of the negativity in this campaign. I find it unfortunate that he took the bait and allowed himself to get dragged down into the muck with McCain, but dragged down he was.
    lmao. If that's the way you want to portray it, that's fine.

    to me is a much, MUCH better response to the McCain ad than the Obama "No, you're a celebrity" ad:
    Yeah. That's a much more clever come back.

    Although coming out now, it strikes me as a "damn...that's what I should have said" type moment.

    And it seems kind of silly, when you've got your own "celebrity" ad out there. Though I'm not sure what the point of the "celebrity" insult was in the Obama ad.

  14. #59
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    Quote Originally Posted by gcoll View Post
    lmao. If that's the way you want to portray it, that's fine.
    lMfao... You think McCain didn't go negative long before Obama?



    Yeah. That's a much more clever come back.

    Although coming out now, it strikes me as a "damn...that's what I should have said" type moment.

    And it seems kind of silly, when you've got your own "celebrity" ad out there. Though I'm not sure what the point of the "celebrity" insult was in the Obama ad.

    I saw it written by a random poster at a liberal blog that they thought this in fact was a response not to the "celebrity" ad but to McCain's ad portraying himself as a "maverick". And in that sense, basically the point of the ad was to dampen the "maverick" image by pushing his status as a Washington insider and his linkage to Bush. And therefore, the inclusion of the term "celebrity" was nothing more than a device to get the media to cover that commercial, since if it was just a "McCain isn't a maverick" commercial they wouldn't notice it. And since they did use the word "celebrity", the media did pick up on it, so it worked. That interpretation makes sense to me.
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  15. #60
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    You think McCain didn't go negative long before Obama?
    I have a broader definition of "negative", as you've pointed out....but that is inconsequential.

    The notion is that Obama heroically tried to stay absolutely positive......but was dragged down into the mud by John Mccain. I think that's kind of silly. To portray one as infinitely honest, and good...and the other one as a mustache twirling villain.

    Also, if that was Obama trying his best to stay positive, he sucks. All it took was calling him a celebrity? wtf?

    Also, wtf did Mccain do that was so bad? You act as if Mccain has attacked Obama on a deeply personal level, when he really hasn't said all that much. Neither campaign has done anything that I'd consider reprehensible in their "attacks".
    Last edited by gcoll; 08-12-2008 at 01:53 AM.

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