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  1. #31
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    This is the best part about that ad:

    Then there's the small inconvenience that Paris' parents, Rick and Kathleen Hilton, are supporters of McCain's Republican presidential bid. According to federal campaign records, they gave the maximum $4,600.

    No word on their plans for the general election, but this much is certain: Their daughter has never paid to attend an Obama campaign fundraiser.
    -LATimes.com

  2. #32
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    Quote Originally Posted by Devils05 View Post
    This is the best part about that ad:

    -LATimes.com
    Yep, they gave the maximum, and Mom is not happy about the ad:

    Kathy Hilton (Paris' mother):

    McCain's Celebrity Ad: Frivolous, A Waste Of Money, A Waste Of Time

    I've been asked again and again for my response to the now infamous McCain celebrity ad. I actually have three responses. It is a complete waste of the money John McCain's contributors have donated to his campaign. It is a complete waste of the country's time and attention at the very moment when millions of people are losing their homes and their jobs. And it is a completely frivolous way to choose the next President of the United States.
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  3. #33
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    Quote Originally Posted by DenButsu View Post
    There it is.

    And "Appalachia" includes significant parts of Ohio, PA, and Virginia, all of which are in play, right?
    I guess... but those states all have urban centers that comprise the bulk of the population.
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  4. #34
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    Quote Originally Posted by BG7 View Post
    Obama did so poorly in Appalachia because the guy did a half assed campaign there.
    Partially true. He never had a chance to win, but he could have probably lost by 15-20 instead of 30-40.
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  5. #35
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    Quote Originally Posted by ari1013 View Post
    Partially true. He never had a chance to win, but he could have probably lost by 15-20 instead of 30-40.
    And even in spite of that, he's still doing more to challenge McCain across the entire electoral map than any Dem has done... when, like ever? ...certainly more than people would have imagined possible for him even 6-8 months ago. Pushing to challenge in states conventional wisdom would pretty much automatically chalk up for the 'Pubs.
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  6. #36
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    Quote Originally Posted by LeoGetz View Post
    I freaking love it. Please god let Obama run an ad of McCain stealing baby Alex from his mother in the middle of the night Elian Gonzalez style & send him to Iraq.

    McCain ad likens Obama to Paris Hilton, Britney Spears
    It the Big Lie strategy. You'll be surprise how many voting simpletons believe it.

  7. #37
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    Quote Originally Posted by Drucifer View Post
    It the Big Lie strategy. You'll be surprise how many voting simpletons believe it.
    Hey, McCain's struggling. He's got to do something to chip away at Obama. Going negative and lying about him might be his best shot at this point.
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  8. #38
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    Quote Originally Posted by DenButsu View Post
    And even in spite of that, he's still doing more to challenge McCain across the entire electoral map than any Dem has done... when, like ever? ...certainly more than people would have imagined possible for him even 6-8 months ago. Pushing to challenge in states conventional wisdom would pretty much automatically chalk up for the 'Pubs.
    We were bound for a blow out election sometime soon. 3 straight too close to call elections would be insane.

    I think Obama will carry the following states that Kerry didn't: Colorado, New Mexico, North Dakota, Montana, Iowa, Missouri, Indiana, Arkansas, Indiana, Ohio, Florida, Virginia, and maybe Alaska.

    I expect two things, for him to name HRC his veep, America to realize what a bumbling idiot McCain is when him and Obama are right next to each other debating, and some Hillary-Romney shouting matches during the veep debate.

  9. #39
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    Quote Originally Posted by BG7 View Post
    We were bound for a blow out election sometime soon. 3 straight too close to call elections would be insane.

    I think Obama will carry the following states that Kerry didn't: Colorado, New Mexico, North Dakota, Montana, Iowa, Missouri, Indiana, Arkansas, Indiana, Ohio, Florida, Virginia, and maybe Alaska.

    I expect two things, for him to name HRC his veep, America to realize what a bumbling idiot McCain is when him and Obama are right next to each other debating, and some Hillary-Romney shouting matches during the veep debate.
    That's very optimistic. That would fulfill the blowout that you're looking for (400 EVs).

    I just don't see it happening. The internet has helped people become more aware -- and by extension, more polarized.
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  10. #40
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    Quote Originally Posted by BG7 View Post
    We were bound for a blow out election sometime soon. 3 straight too close to call elections would be insane.

    I think Obama will carry the following states that Kerry didn't: Colorado, New Mexico, North Dakota, Montana, Iowa, Missouri, Indiana, Arkansas, Indiana, Ohio, Florida, Virginia, and maybe Alaska.

    I expect two things, for him to name HRC his veep, America to realize what a bumbling idiot McCain is when him and Obama are right next to each other debating, and some Hillary-Romney shouting matches during the veep debate.
    One flaw. HRC will not be the VP.
    Когда́ де́ньги говоря́т, тогда́ пра́вда молчи́т

  11. #41
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    Wink

    Quote Originally Posted by BG7 View Post
    We were bound for a blow out election sometime soon. 3 straight too close to call elections would be insane.

    I think Obama will carry the following states that Kerry didn't: Colorado, New Mexico, North Dakota, Montana, Iowa, Missouri, Indiana, Arkansas, Indiana, Ohio, Florida, Virginia, and maybe Alaska.

    I expect two things, for him to name HRC his veep, America to realize what a bumbling idiot McCain is when him and Obama are right next to each other debating, and some Hillary-Romney shouting matches during the veep debate.
    Wow, I don't see anyway all of that happens. If anything, this race has gotten closer, not further apart, as the daily tracking polls are consistently no more than 4 pts in favor of Obama nationally. I don't see Obama winning Florida (McCain by 6 in today's poll), Missouri (close, but I think McCain pulls it out), Montana (McCain +5% avg, plus historically republican), Arkansas (McCain by 16% avg, not sure why this is even on your list), Alaska, North Dakota. McCain would need more than just those to win the Presidency obviously, but I don't see anyway he loses all those states.


    Hell I see McCain winning Hawaii, Illinois and Massachuesets. I mean why not, while we are dreaming.
    Last edited by b1e9a8r5s; 08-05-2008 at 02:32 PM.

  12. #42
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    Quote Originally Posted by b1e9a8r5s View Post
    Wow, I don't see anyway all of that happens. If anything, this race has gotten closer, not further apart, as the daily tracking polls are consistently no more than 4 pts in favor of Obama nationally. I don't see Obama winning Florida (McCain by 6 in today's poll), Missouri (close, but I think McCain pulls it out), Montana (McCain +5% avg, plus historically republican), Arkansas (McCain by 16% avg, not sure why this is even on your list), Alaska, North Dakota. McCain would need more than just those to win the Presidency obviously, but I don't see anyway he loses all those states.


    Hell I see McCain winning Hawaii, Illinois and Massachuesets. I mean why not, while we are dreaming.
    You missed the part about Hillary Clinton being the VP. (Hillary would carry Arkansas for him).

    It will be a much closer race if she isn't. But if she is, it will be an absolute demolition.

  13. #43
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    Quote Originally Posted by BG7 View Post
    You missed the part about Hillary Clinton being the VP. (Hillary would carry Arkansas for him).

    It will be a much closer race if she isn't. But if she is, it will be an absolute demolition.
    Oh, ok, I get why put it on there. A couple things though. One, I don't see anyway he picks her. He doesn't want to have to deal with her and Bill. Second, nothing would motivate the republican base like Hillary Clinton being added to the ticket. She (and Bill) bring so much baggage and the republicans would have a field day with it. Not sure if that equals a win for McCain, given the political climate, but it certainly wouldn't equal a blowout, IMO.

  14. #44
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    Quote Originally Posted by b1e9a8r5s View Post
    Oh, ok, I get why put it on there. A couple things though. One, I don't see anyway he picks her. He doesn't want to have to deal with her and Bill. Second, nothing would motivate the republican base like Hillary Clinton being added to the ticket. She (and Bill) bring so much baggage and the republicans would have a field day with it. Not sure if that equals a win for McCain, given the political climate, but it certainly wouldn't equal a blowout, IMO.
    I think the Hillary problem would be seen in the South (minus Arkansas) for the most part, which would have no bearing on the states I listed in play of ND, Indiana, Montana, Ohio, Florida, etc.

    If Obama can successfully merge his supporters with Hillary's, they are going to run rampant.

    For example, the Indiana primary. Hillary and Obama had almost 1.28 million combined voters. George Bush won that with 1.48 million in 2004, with Kerry only getting 0.97 million in 2004.

    I think Hillary really beefs up the ticket in Indiana, Ohio, Florida, and Pennsylvania. That is the election right there. Hillary should have no adverse effect on the ticket in New Mexico (she should help here actually). She might hurt him in places like North Dakota, Montana, Virginia, but where she helps him, is more important than those states, and more likely to turn Obama then ND/MT, except Virginia is in play for Obama even without a blowout.

    I think it is Survey USA, who has been doing the VP polling. Obama/Hillary ticket routinely kicks the McCain/Romney ticket's *** (which I think will be the ticket).

  15. #45
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    And here's why I think Hillary will be the veep. They have pretty much closed the book on her, with the shortlist supposively being Bayh, Biden, and Kaine. A large contingent of her supporters have said, oh right, lets give up, get on the Obama train. Then there is that contingent that says, "I won't vote for Obama no matter what". I think by excluding her from this supposive shortlist, that contingent shifts to "I guess I will support him if Hillary is the veep". Now with Hillary thought to be out of the running, the once inevitable veep choice will be a big surprise.

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