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  1. #1
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    Pollster.com's Map Is Up

    Pollster.com runs a composite of all the polls. Their map is calling it 284-147 Obama with 107 EVs too close to call.

    http://pollster.com/
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  2. #2
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    Well, to say McCain needs FL, AZ, NC, VA, CO would be an understatement. Romney would give him a chance to win MI and MA.

    The current numbers arent very surprising, though.

  3. #3
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    Quote Originally Posted by JHG722 View Post
    Well, to say McCain needs FL, AZ, NC, VA, CO would be an understatement. Romney would give him a chance to win MI and MA.

    The current numbers arent very surprising, though.
    They are to me. I think Pollster's overstating the states that are solid red or blue. My count has 133 EVs up for grabs (26 more than they have -- and mostly states they're giving to Obama).
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  4. #4
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    Until Obama wins Pennsylvania I refuse to believe the polls

  5. #5
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    Quote Originally Posted by SticklerOfRules View Post
    Until Obama wins Pennsylvania I refuse to believe the polls
    What are you saying?

  6. #6
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    Quote Originally Posted by JHG722 View Post
    What are you saying?
    Yeah, I'm not sure about that either, but I did see just a day or two ago that Obama was leading in PA, and had just cracked 50% for the first time there.
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  7. #7
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    i go to this site

    http://www.electoral-vote.com/

    it is a state by state analysis on who wins which states.. it says Obama wins in a blowout

  8. #8
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  9. #9
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    i love that site.

  10. #10
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    I would recommend realclearpolitics.com

  11. #11
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    I don't like that they seem to be including polls from a long time ago. For example if you click on Michigan, it references polls from as far back as Jan 07, which I believe they are including in the average for the candidates, which is then used to determine if the state goes in the lean or solid colum for the map. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...ama_vs_mccain/ There map only uses the recent polls for the average and therefore has Michigan (using the July polls) in the undecided category. It's the same data they are using though. I was just surprised to see the 284-147-107 split that pollster has. Realclearpolitics has it 238-163-137.

  12. #12
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    RCP just averages polls. They totally butchered the last few elections IIRC.
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  13. #13
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    Quote Originally Posted by b1e9a8r5s View Post
    I don't like that they seem to be including polls from a long time ago. For example if you click on Michigan, it references polls from as far back as Jan 07, which I believe they are including in the average for the candidates, which is then used to determine if the state goes in the lean or solid colum for the map. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...ama_vs_mccain/ There map only uses the recent polls for the average and therefore has Michigan (using the July polls) in the undecided category. It's the same data they are using though. I was just surprised to see the 284-147-107 split that pollster has. Realclearpolitics has it 238-163-137.
    Pollster runs a projection based on trend estimation. That's a lot better than simply using polls.

    In any case, I think that even the 137 is a little too small in states up for grabs. I've been updating the main poll thread each week looking at states that are inside the MoE and it's a bit bigger than that.
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  14. #14
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    Quote Originally Posted by LAKERMANIA View Post
    i go to this site

    http://www.electoral-vote.com/

    it is a state by state analysis on who wins which states.. it says Obama wins in a blowout

    I wait til the actual election goes down.....a website or t.v. show can spin many things lets wait because remember four years ago a man named John Kerry was ahead in the polls at this time, but look what happened to him....

  15. #15
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    Quote Originally Posted by IS27NY View Post
    I wait til the actual election goes down.....a website or t.v. show can spin many things lets wait because remember four years ago a man named John Kerry was ahead in the polls at this time, but look what happened to him....
    At this time, yes, Kerry was ahead of Bush. But from the convention on, Bush was solidly ahead of Kerry. There was no doubt that Bush was winning based on the post-convention polling data.

    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/bush_vs_kerry.html

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