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  1. #121
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    He may be relevant again come GOP convention time in September.

    I believe he's speaking. People talked about how fiery the Dem convention was going to be with Hillary and Obama, but I think there will be a bit more of a show in Minneapolis at the Republican convention. The Paulites are going to show up in force demanding social change (from what I understand).
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  2. #122
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    Wow, he's speaking at the convention? Well that does change my perception of his relevance for sure, then.

    One way or another, a significant number of people are going to be disappointed about that. Either he'll be a "good boy" and walk back from his very critical stance on the status quo of the Republican Party and his loyal supporters will be pissed at him for selling out, or he'll actually talk about what he believes in and be a pretty bigtime spoiler in the RNC's efforts to present a unified front.

    I'm really surprised if they're letting him take the podium. I'd say, from a strategic pov, the risk of putting him onstage to speak his mind far outweighs the potential controversy/mini-uproar they'd face if they didn't let him speak.
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  3. #123
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    Agreed. Now, whether he actually gets to take the stage remains to be seen. I guess they're putting Bush up on stage the first day, and McCain won't even be there. It's the McCain camps way of distancing themselves from Bush for the final push.

    I can't see Ron Paul being a "good boy" and not talking his "Revolution" talk. I haven't seen a full schedule, but my understanding from my friends in the Republican Party of Iowa is that Paul will be a second day speaker.
    Когда́ де́ньги говоря́т, тогда́ пра́вда молчи́т

  4. #124
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    Quote Originally Posted by SmthBluCitrus View Post
    Agreed. Now, whether he actually gets to take the stage remains to be seen. I guess they're putting Bush up on stage the first day, and McCain won't even be there. It's the McCain camps way of distancing themselves from Bush for the final push.

    I can't see Ron Paul being a "good boy" and not talking his "Revolution" talk. I haven't seen a full schedule, but my understanding from my friends in the Republican Party of Iowa is that Paul will be a second day speaker.
    Yeah, hard to see him toeing the line.

    Interesting, though, if the RNC's most headline-grabbing 2nd day speaker is Paul, while the DNC's is Hillary...
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  5. #125
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    Quote Originally Posted by SmthBluCitrus View Post
    He may be relevant again come GOP convention time in September.

    I believe he's speaking. People talked about how fiery the Dem convention was going to be with Hillary and Obama, but I think there will be a bit more of a show in Minneapolis at the Republican convention. The Paulites are going to show up in force demanding social change (from what I understand).
    I heard he was going to hold his own alternate convention in Minny the same weekend.
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  6. #126
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    Quote Originally Posted by SmthBluCitrus View Post
    Agreed. Now, whether he actually gets to take the stage remains to be seen. I guess they're putting Bush up on stage the first day, and McCain won't even be there. It's the McCain camps way of distancing themselves from Bush for the final push.

    I can't see Ron Paul being a "good boy" and not talking his "Revolution" talk. I haven't seen a full schedule, but my understanding from my friends in the Republican Party of Iowa is that Paul will be a second day speaker.
    The bulk of Republican Senators up for reelection this cycle also appear to be skipping the Bush speech for fear of getting caught in the camera's eye during the speech. Kind of a sad state of affairs we have these days.
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  7. #127
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    Quote Originally Posted by DenButsu View Post
    Yeah, hard to see him toeing the line.

    Interesting, though, if the RNC's most headline-grabbing 2nd day speaker is Paul, while the DNC's is Hillary...
    Again, not entirely sure. But, that's from my friends in the RPI, and they haven't failed me yet. They also told me back when McCain won the nomination that Tim Pawlenty (Gov MN - R) is far-and-away the front runner for the VP.

    Quote Originally Posted by ari1013 View Post
    I heard he was going to hold his own alternate convention in Minny the same weekend.
    I've heard that one too. That the RNC won't allow Paul to have the floor in Minneapolis, so they're going to hold an alternate convention in the Williams Arena at the University of Minnesota (the arena has even been booked). The thing is, the delegates that are for Paul are likely going to go to the Paul faux-convention instead of the actual convention.

    If they went to the true convention, they could actually hold some sway over things -- a lot of Paul people were voted in at state conventions to be delegates even though they're vote is supposed to be reserved for McCain (they don't have to vote for who their vote is reserved for).

    But, if they don't go to the convention, alternates will take their place. Unless of course the Convention doesn't meet quorum standards set for by the rules committee of the RNC. Which, I understand is something that they're fearing. If they don't meet quorum they can't continue with the nomination of McCain. That's not to say he won't eventually be the GOP nominee, but at that point Ron Paul could show up and cause it to be a brokered convention.

    All that says less about the "strength" of Ron Paul, and more about the lack of proper delegation GOP support. Which is really good news for the Dems in November. It shows lack of local level support.

    All this is a lot of really weird information, I know. But, it's still all rather interesting.

    Quote Originally Posted by ari1013 View Post
    The bulk of Republican Senators up for reelection this cycle also appear to be skipping the Bush speech for fear of getting caught in the camera's eye during the speech. Kind of a sad state of affairs we have these days.
    It is. But, it's kind of the same thing that Gore did in 2000 -- for different reasons, naturally. Everybody was under that family/morals/drink a beer with the president spell. But, if Gore would have embraced his relationship with Clinton, I feel he would've trounced Bush. If Clinton had been running again, even out of all that Monica/definition of "is" scandal, he would've won. Before all of the crap he did through this cycle, he probably still would've won.

    Things have changed a bit now though. This isn't the Party of Clinton anymore.
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  8. #128
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    In CNN's article on Ted Stevens' conviction being bad for congressional 'Pubs, they went so far as to say the Dems may now be within reach of a filibuster-proof 60-40 majority in Congress. That was the first I'd heard of that. But if that did happen and Barack won by a significant margin, that would amount to one hell of a mandate.
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  9. #129
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    Quote Originally Posted by DenButsu View Post
    In CNN's article on Ted Stevens' conviction being bad for congressional 'Pubs, they went so far as to say the Dems may now be within reach of a filibuster-proof 60-40 majority in Congress. That was the first I'd heard of that. But if that did happen and Barack won by a significant margin, that would amount to one hell of a mandate.
    It certainly would be. Although, you could count on a lot of that being backlash from the GOP brand. I wouldn't be opposed to a large Dem filibuster-proof majority, even though I'm an advocate of the checks and balances system.

    Still doesn't mean that a lot will get done. We have a lot of different styles of Democrats in Congress -- far left to just right of center. So, whether they can agree on specificities remains to be seen.

    Again, it's that old argument of talking about it and actually being able to do it. Much easier to criticize because they can't bring up controversial legislation because of the possibility of a filibuster than it is to actually bring up the legislation; i.e. healthcare.
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  10. #130
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    Quote Originally Posted by SmthBluCitrus View Post
    Still doesn't mean that a lot will get done. We have a lot of different styles of Democrats in Congress -- far left to just right of center. So, whether they can agree on specificities remains to be seen.
    Yeah, well I remember the Clinton years well, so I know what you're talking about. But just numerically speaking, if Obama has some legislation he'd like to pass, the greater the majority, the greater the probability of it going through.
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  11. #131
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    Quote Originally Posted by DenButsu View Post
    In CNN's article on Ted Stevens' conviction being bad for congressional 'Pubs, they went so far as to say the Dems may now be within reach of a filibuster-proof 60-40 majority in Congress. That was the first I'd heard of that. But if that did happen and Barack won by a significant margin, that would amount to one hell of a mandate.
    Well, 5 seats are in the books for the Dems already: NH, NM, CO, VA and AK (even before the scandal).

    So that puts them up to 54 (plus maybe Uncle Joe for 55).

    On top of that, Musgrove's insignificantly polling better than Wicker in MS. Merkley's insignificantly polling better htan Gordon (who's trying to say he's Obama's real choice) in OR. So that would make 56 (or 57).

    The other 3 (or 4) seats could come from KY, MN, ME, NC, or even TX -- all of which involve incumbant Republicans polling under 50% and holding single-digit leads over the Democrats.

    My best guess would be that the Dems get 55 seats and end up dumping Lieberman out of the caucus because a 56th doesn't really make a difference.
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  12. #132
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    I'd rather have 55 and see holy Joe get the boot than have 60. That's a long time comin'...
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