State Polls Indicate Obama, National Polls Indicate Toss-Up. Who's Right?

[ari1013]

http://www.observer.com/2008/politic...t-both-are-rig

If you look at the national-level data, Barack Obama seems to be underachieving. In the latest Gallup daily tracking poll, the presumptive Democratic nominee holds a scant two-point edge over John McCain. The margin is also two points in Rasmussen's daily poll—which also shows a dead-even race when "leaners" are factored in. Some other recent polls have been a little more favorable to Obama, but the combined weight of the available national data strongly suggests that Obama, despite his personal popularity and the enormous built-in advantages his party enjoys this year, is locked in a much closer race than he should be.

But if you ignore the national numbers and instead consider individual state polls, a realigning landslide suddenly seems to be within Obama's reach. In state after state, he's performing far better than John Kerry did in 2004, and numerous Republican bastions are seemingly in play. Consider Indiana, which George W. Bush won by 21 points in 2004 and which lasted voted for a Democrat 44 years ago—and which Obama leads by one point in the most recent survey. Or North Carolina, which Bush carried by 12 points in '04 but where the latest poll has Obama within three. And so on. In North Dakota, the race is tied. In South Dakota, Obama trails by just four. Ditto for Alaska, perhaps the most Republican state in the union. He also leads in Montana and Colorado and in all but one recent survey in Virginia.

And the trend isn't just evident in red states. In states where Kerry eked out victories last time around, polls now give Obama sizable leads. Kerry nearly fumbled away Minnesota (a three-point nail-biter), but Obama has a 17-point advantage in the most recent poll. Wisconsin and New Hampshire were photo-finishes in '04, but Obama has opened a double-digit lead there. Plus, Obama is running ahead in states that Kerry barely lost, like Iowa (by an average of seven points), New Mexico and Nevada.
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But if we take the average result from recent polls in each state and weight each state according to its share of the national population, we get an overall national result that's entirely consistent with current national polling: Obama 46.2 percent, McCain 42.7—a 3½-point race. So there really is no inconsistency between the close national horse race and Obama's clearly superior position in individual state polls.

Kind of interesting. So basically the states that McCain's leading in, he's leading by so much that it's balancing out all of the swing states in which Obama's leading.

[DenButsu]

[url]So basically the states that McCain's leading in, he's leading by so much that it's balancing out all of the swing states in which Obama's leading.

I can live with that.

But let's check back in a week or so. I have a feeling Obama will get a bump from this Middle East trip that's reflected in national polls.

[moonman]

With 24/7 coverage, I think we're witnessing a downgrade in the value of polling. I'm not suggesting the polls are wrong. I'm suggesting the polls are snapshot in time that are valid only for the time period in which the poll is conducted.

In other words, polls are yesterday's or last hour's news.

[Doc Fluty]

I can live with that.

But let's check back in a week or so. I have a feeling Obama will get a bump from this Middle East trip that's reflected in national polls.

from what im hearing the "educational trip" isnt going to well over there or back here

anyway....

just a thought.... do you think people will get obama overload?

ive noticed today that the media is kinda talking about itself on how it sent a brigade with obama...

so by the time Nov gets here do you think (especially by people who might not like mccain but hate obama) that there will be this anti-obama surge at the polls from people who are already getting fed up with hearing the obama hype and dont want to see 4 more years of this guy?

[Bosox Believer]

from what im hearing the "educational trip" isnt going to well over there or back here

Really? I've been hearing quite the opposite. In fact, it seems to me that McCain has been having to play defense from all the positive reports coming back from the trip. Basically, McCain has been forced to adopt suspiciously similar foreign policy positions to Obama's since he landed in Afghanistan... What have you been hearing that would suggest otherwise?

[blenderboy5]

With 24/7 coverage, I think we're witnessing a downgrade in the value of polling. I'm not suggesting the polls are wrong. I'm suggesting the polls are snapshot in time that are valid only for the time period in which the poll is conducted.

In other words, polls are yesterday's or last hour's news.

Nah, polls are generally wrong and a waste of time.

Now yes, polls on a presidential candidate, if phrased fairly "Do you support candidate A and B" coupled with questions asking "do you support candidate B or A," are much more accurate.

But there's evidence that illustrates how foolish public opinion polls really are for the simple reason that people are stupid. They don't understand issues. So they just spew out what sounds good to sound sem- not retarded.

[Doc Fluty]

Really? I've been hearing quite the opposite. In fact, it seems to me that McCain has been having to play defense from all the positive reports coming back from the trip. Basically, McCain has been forced to adopt suspiciously similar foreign policy positions to Obama's since he landed in Afghanistan... What have you been hearing that would suggest otherwise?

i heard that some people in germany didnt like that he wanted to do a speech in front of the Brandenburg Gate

BERLIN (AP) — German Chancellor Angela Merkel has signaled unease over the prospect of a possible speech by Democratic presidential hopeful Barack Obama at Berlin's historic Brandenburg Gate, a spokesman said Wednesday.

Merkel has "only limited understanding for using the Brandenburg Gate as an election campaign backdrop, as it were, and has expressed skepticism about pursuing such plans," Thomas Steg, a spokesman for the chancellor, told reporters.

and some see Obama's Overseas Trip is a Politial Stunt.

and then there is the media who blatantly showed who there in bed with... with the army brigade of reporters that wanted ot go with him...

Mikhail Gorbachev, Lenin, Stalin never got this kind of coverage from their media. And they owned it! And they dictated to it! - Rush

There is almost nothing Senator Obama can learn with the media following him like puppies and the speed at which he is traveling. He isnt there to learn anything substantive (lest he have an opinion that does not fall in line with Democratic Party lines, or worse contradict his far-left campaign speeches more than he already has), he is there to look good.

but im sure we'll bother hear different things if we watch different news or read different articles...

[DenButsu]

German Chancellor Angela Merkel is a conservative and a close political ally of George Bush. So yeah, she really represents wider European public opinion.

[ari1013]

German Chancellor Angela Merkel is a conservative and a close political ally of George Bush. So yeah, she really represents wider European public opinion.

Close, but not so close that she enjoys presidential backrubs.

It is, however, refreshing to see Doc using an AP source instead of Newsmax.