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  1. #1
    Join Date
    Oct 2010
    Posts
    70,948

    Sabermatrician projects Tigers to finish season with most wins in MLB

    Different team. Same story.

    Last year at this time, the Detroit Tigers were projected by many to not only win the American League Central, but finish with the most wins in baseball and contend for the World Series crown. They didnít quite get there, losing to the Boston Red Sox in the ALCS.

    This year, despite losing slugger Prince Fielder, right-hander Doug Fister and closer Joaquin Benoit, among others, the projection is the same from sabermetrician Clay Davenport, the co-founder of Baseball Prospectus: The Tigers will finish 91-71, win the AL Central for a fourth consecutive year and finish with the most wins in baseball in manager Brad Ausmusí first season.

    The Tigers also have a 75 percent chance to make the postseason. Davenport has the Cleveland Indians finishing 85-77, followed by the Chicago White Sox at 79-83, the Kansas City Royals at 77-85 and the Minnesota Twins at 72-90.

    To replace some of their off-season losses, the Tigers added second baseman Ian Kinsler in the Fielder trade with the Texas Rangers, plus closer Joe Nathan and utility players and releivers such as outfielder Rajai Davis, infielder Steve Lombardozzi and reliever Ian Krol.

    Right behind the Tigers at 90-72 are the Tampa Bay Rays and the St. Louis Cardinals.

    Davenport describes how he came up with these projections below his projected standings, using a combination of computerized player projections and expected playing times for each player.

    Bovada currently has the Tigers at 17-to-2 odds to win the World Series, behind only the Los Angeles Dodgers at 13-to-2.
    Thought that might be interesting to talk about. Very curious that the best record would be projected to finish with 91 wins. To be honest though I just want a World Series win, I don't care about the best regular season record.

    What about you guys: Agree? Disagree? Please discuss.

  2. #2
    Join Date
    Jul 2009
    Location
    Saginaw, MI
    Posts
    19,275
    Clay Davenport, so that's fil's real name

  3. #3
    Join Date
    Dec 2009
    Location
    Denver, CO
    Posts
    1,166
    I am a little scared about the lack of power in the line-up. But Comerica is not exactly a home run ball park. Maybe they have finally come to the realization that we need more doubles-guys in the line-up, more speed on the base paths and a stronger bullpen. I do think they have addressed some of those issues in the off-season. I think we'll win at least 90 games--maybe closer to 95. But I'm with you, LionsFan, I just want a World Series championship and it doesn't really matter how we get there.


    "Lions, Tigers and Pistons, OH MY!" (and Hoosiers...and Redwings....)

  4. #4
    Join Date
    Jun 2012
    Posts
    7,725
    See DD really is smarter than everyone else.



    2015 AAL: Ebron
    Receptions: 9
    Yards: 96
    TD: 2
    Stats aren't spectacular, but already having a better year than 2014


    2013 Lions forum rookie poster of the year!

  5. #5
    Join Date
    Nov 2007
    Location
    Northern VA
    Posts
    9,420
    Quote Originally Posted by iu92grad View Post
    I am a little scared about the lack of power in the line-up. But Comerica is not exactly a home run ball park. Maybe they have finally come to the realization that we need more doubles-guys in the line-up, more speed on the base paths and a stronger bullpen. I do think they have addressed some of those issues in the off-season. I think we'll win at least 90 games--maybe closer to 95. But I'm with you, LionsFan, I just want a World Series championship and it doesn't really matter how we get there.
    Agreed. Most of us have been saying for years that we needed a lot more gap power then HR power. Now we get to see it come to fruition. I feel that this may be the last year for this core group of players to make a run at WS title.





    Quote Originally Posted by Lionsfanfromsac View Post
    Congrats to Ahoda on winning "PSD 2015 Post of the year!" ... What a huge honor it is to have you contribute to our forum. I hope you post twice as much in 2016 & give us twice the quality posts & twice the laughter!

  6. #6
    Join Date
    Oct 2010
    Posts
    70,948
    Whatever gets the job is fine by me. I'm just happy we have more than one guy in the lineup capable of stealing bases and that they'll actually be used now.

  7. #7
    Join Date
    Jun 2012
    Posts
    7,725
    I'm just excited to soon be able to watch a detroit team that doesn't suck donkey nuts.



    2015 AAL: Ebron
    Receptions: 9
    Yards: 96
    TD: 2
    Stats aren't spectacular, but already having a better year than 2014


    2013 Lions forum rookie poster of the year!

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