It might be a sketchy source but they use the same "fair draft system" that they used in 2004-2005. If this is the way it goes we have a top-7 chance (out of 30) of landing that first pick.
Basically it's a 3-ball system. Every teams gets 3 right off the bat. Teams lose one ball if they have made the playoffs in the last 3 year, and if they have picked 1st overall in the same time period. So basically the leafs luck out here by not being good enough to make the playoffs and not sucking enough to pick first. Leafs are 1 of 7 teams with 3 balls and a 6% chance of getting the first pick. Good news is that the oilers aren't part of the top-7 so they likely wont get ANOTHER 1st overall selection(they still have a 2% chance). Bad news is that the Blue Jackets are in our group, and we know what happens when a franchise is struggling financially and needs a boost (Bettman will hand them the pick). CBJ are also hosting the All-Star game which was supposed to be this year but because of the lockout they might just shift it to next year, extra incentive for Betts.
After doing some digging the Pens missed the playoffs 3 straight years before the lockout and picks first overall once (MA Fleury) but the still ended up with three balls (rigged?) i tried looking up why they had 3 instead of 2 (the formula they used is one wiki and the same as above) but the only page i could find talked about them having the worst record over the span of the three years (didn't look up but i think we all know why they got it)
I looked at the 3 other teams that had 3 balls (Buf, CBJ, NYR) at the results were not very encouraging. No teams landed in the top 5. CBJ ended with the 6th pick (Brule = bust), NyR ended with the 12th pick (Marc Staal = nice), Buf ended with the 13th pick ( some guy that i never heard of and would rather type this long sentence rather then accurately type his name)
Of the teams that had one ball (least likely for the top pick [16 total]) only 4 of the 16 (MTL, VAN, Ott, SjS) had a top 10 pick, the majority had 20-30 overall picks (which includes us at #21 with *cough* Tuuka Rask )
Its not really clear if this is the only formula for the draft but its the only one the NHL themselves have released or stated thats how the draft worked. Also Bill Daly was clear in saying that they would revert to the same method as 2005 ONLY if the full season is lost (maybe some optimism by him? maybe). Oh i think i forgot to mention that the reason i looked into this is because Bill Daly himself spoke about the draft very briefly on a radio show.
Hope we get lucky