Rate the Sim: quinnjack
First and foremost I think the Red Sox have players currently left off of their 40-man roster that they're going to make an effort to add to the roster through a few minor moves. Most specifically they will try to make room for Allen Webster, Alex Wilson, Jeremy Hazelbaker, and Josh Fields so that they are not lost to the Rule 5 draft. I'll equate for these through the simulation:
Arbitration Projected Salaries:
Alfredo Aceves - $2.75MM
Scott Atchison - $900K
Andrew Bailey - $3.7MM
Daniel Bard - $1.5MM
Craig Breslow - $2.55MM
Jacoby Ellsbury - $8MM
Rich Hill - $1.15MM
Andrew Miller - $1.6MM
Franklin Morales - $1.75MM
Jarrod Saltalamacchia - $4MM
Ryan Sweeney - $1.5MM
1) David Carpenter, RHP
1) Jarrod Saltalamacchia (C), Ryan Sweeney (OF), and Alfredo Aceves (RHP) to the New York Mets for Ike Davis (1B), Michael Fullmer (RHP), and Adam Kolarek (LHP).
2) Felix Doubront (LHP), Bryce Brentz (OF), Jose Iglesias (SS) and Brandon Workman (RHP) to the Cleveland Indians for Justin Masterson (RHP), and Asdrubal Cabrera (SS).
Free Agent Signings:
1) Brandon McCarthy (RHP) 2 years, $19MM
2) Dallas Braden (LHP) 1 year, $1.3MM
3) Cody Ross (OF) 3 years, $22.5MM
4) Kila Ka'aihue (1B) Minor League Contract
5) Travis Buck (OF) Minor League Contract
6) Jeff Manship (RHP) Minor League Contract
2013 Starting Lineup:
1. Jacoby Ellsbury, CF - $8MM
2. Dustin Pedroia, 2B - $10.25MM
3. Will Middlebrooks, 3B - $490K
4. David Ortiz, DH - $14MM
5. Ike Davis, 1B - $3MM (Arb. projection)
6. Cody Ross, RF - $7.5M
7. Asdrubal Cabrera, SS - $6.5M
8. Ryan Lavarnway, C - $490K
9. Ryan Kalish/Jerry Sands, LF - $490K
1. Dave Ross, C - $3.1MM
2. Sands/Kalish, OF - $490K
3. Pedro Ciriaco, INF - $490K
4. Daniel Nava, OF - $490K
2013 Starting Rotation:
1. Jon Lester - $11.625MM
2. Clay Buchholz - $5.5MM
3. Brandon McCarthy - $9.5MM
4. Justin Masterson - $5.9MM (Arb. projection)
5. John Lackey - $15.25MM
1. Andrew Bailey - $3.7MM
2. Junichi Tazawa - $490K
3. Daniel Bard - $1.5MM
4. Mark Melancon - $490K
5. Craig Breslow - $2.25MM
6. Andrew Miller - $1.6MM
7. Franklin Morales - $1.75MM
Outside Looking In (Start in minors or injured, contribute during the season):
Rubby De La Rosa (As a late innings RP)
Pitchers: Bailey, Bard, Beato, Braden, Breslow, Britton, Buchholz, C. Carpenter, De La Rosa, Fields, Lackey, Lester, Masterson, McCarthy, Melancon, A. Miller, Morales, Mortensen, Pimentel, Stewart, Tazawa, Webster, A. Wilson.
C: Lavarnway, Ross.
INF: A. Cabrera, Ciriaco, Davis, De Jesus, Gomez, Middlebrooks, Pedroia, Valencia.
OF/DH: Ellsbury, Hazelbaker, Kalish, Nava, Ortiz, Ross, Sands.
DFA'd & Accept Assignment: Rich Hill, Scott Atchison, Sandy Rosario.
Total Spent: $124,475,000
This appears to be written some time ago. Given that handicap, it's good. Well researched and thought out.
The only real flaws are: I think the two trades were too light on our side - by a good deal.
yeah I don't think that package would come close to fetching masterson + cabrera, but other than that pretty good
Originally Posted by bagwell368
You're correct. I wrote this before any signings had been made by the Sox.
Originally Posted by bagwell368
With the Masterson/Cabrera deal I under estimated the perceived value of Cabrera from the Tribe's standpoint, or, perhaps, all together.
Love the FA signings, especially the two above. Wish we could've gotten in on McCarthy, I like the way his GB/HR rates would translate to Fenway--provided we had a backup plan as he's a safe bet to miss 15-25 of the 60 projected starts over the life of the contract due to his chronic shoulder issues. But the Sox could absorb the minimal risk presented. As for Braden--as he said on Twitter, he's "left-handed and has a heartbeat"--anyone heard anything about his recovery from surgery?
Originally Posted by -Lavigne43-
However the trades are a little unrealistic, particularly the Mets trade. Why would the Mets give up a 30 HR, .230 ISO bat for Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Alfredo Aceves, and Ryan Sweeney? You can sign a player of Sweeney's caliber on the market, Aceves has little to no value right now (and FA next year), and Saltalamacchia, while better than average, is a FA next year. The only *value* I see for the Mets in that deal is Salty, as they need a catcher (who granted, had a +.200 ISO last year) but the other two involved going to New York do not make up the discrepancy of trading 4 years of Ike Davis for 1 year of Jarrod Saltalamacchia.
In regards to the Indians trade, they are asking for "frontline" pitching for their tradeable assets (Cabrera, Masterson, Choo). If I were Antonetti I would believe that I could get more than a #3 pitcher, a reliever, an all-glove shortstop, and Brentz (although I'm probably higher on him than most) for a pitcher and a shortstop one year removed from 4.7 and 3.8 WAR seasons respectively. Granted, Masterson's issues re: lack of third out pitch/platoon splits have come back, but you have to think that would be selling low at this point? And Asdrubal Cabrera alone, I believe, would net Doubront/Brentz at the very least. For the Indians, I would view it as a neutral gain in the rotation and a loss at shortstop while only getting Brentz and Workman to make up for that.
Who would you have covering Ross v. RHP (away)? Sands? Is Kalish the other outfield regular?
One thing I just thought of--with Buchholz, Lackey, and McCarthy all in the starting rotation, there's immense potential for injuries to ravage it. Outside of Braden (would he accept an assignment to the minors?) and Morales, do you believe RDLR would be able to step in?
Definitely not enough from us in the trades but I like the final product if you did end up working out the kinks.
I love the idea of getting Dallas Braden