3 teams looking to meet with Mets on Dickey-Rubin post #918

At this point Duda is a throw in, if he could hit 260 and 25 hrs with 85 rbi's then I would say hold on. But he regressed so far last year, probably one of our biggest disappointments besides HECK the other two outfielders.. lol!

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Originally Posted by The-rock-man

At this point Duda is a throw in, if he could hit 260 and 25 hrs with 85 rbi's then I would say hold on. But he regressed so far last year, probably one of our biggest disappointments besides HECK the other two outfielders.. lol!

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That's a big if. At times he looks like a monster. At time he looks like he could be a 35-40 HR guy.

But then he disappears for huge chunks of the season. He really should be further along in his development by now.

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Originally Posted by alexandre302

Comparing guys with MLB players who K-rate is 27% with older AA players whose K-rate is 27% is like comparing apples to oranges. What you need to compare MLB players K-rate at AA with this player and the results are startling.

Adam Dunn's career minor league K-rate was 16.5% with his highest K-rate was 17.6% Mark Reynold's minor league K-rate was 14.2%. His highest K-rate was 15.5% On the other hand Brandon Wood career minor league K-rate was 27%. He also was ranked the best prospect after his AA season and he's not even AAAA player any more.

I respectfully submit that his major career will be more like Wood;s rather Dunn's or Reynold"s.

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Ike Davis had a 28.9 % and Darryl Strawberry had a 33.33% strikeout rate in AA. Do I think Mike Olt is the next Strawberry of course not but if he's the next Ike Davis I'd be happy.

But honestly how can we, who have never seen Mike Olt hit, (aside from a few video clips) now what kind of hitter he'll be based on less than 500 ab in AA?

If the Mets don't get enough offered for Dickey, and they sign him to an extension will they then move on quickly to seeing what they can get for Niese?

Because if they keep Dickey, they still have huge holes to fill.

You have to believe that each team is being asked what more would they give for Niese in place of Dickey.

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Originally Posted by dunbummin

We're spending an awful lot of time discussing a trade package that's been rejected. Lee and Gordon don't do it. Dodgers don't really match up well with us.

I think the best we might do is Lee, Pederson and Federowicz. Is that a deal we should consider?

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Now Ideally thats the return the Mets would want. Dodgers wouldn't want to part with Federowicz though. I would prefer this trade by far to Olt.

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Originally Posted by Metsfan1963

Ike Davis had a 28.9 % and Darryl Strawberry had a 33.33% strikeout rate in AA. Do I think Mike Olt is the next Strawberry of course not but if he's the next Ike Davis I'd be happy.

But honestly how can we, who have never seen Mike Olt hit, (aside from a few video clips) now what kind of hitter he'll be based on less than 500 ab in AA?

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Agreed.

You always have to look at strikeout rates relative to power, as well as age.

Best tool I know for judging the strikeout rate is (TB-H)/SO. Anything under 0.5 is a guy likely to bust, over 0.6 is just OK, over 0.8 is good, and over 1.0 is pretty elite. Olt in AA was at 1.02. I'd have liked to see him do that there at age 22, rather than 23, but I think it's reasonable to expect from Olt's numbers (including a .977 OPS in AA) that he can give you a .760+ OPS in MLB. So I don't think he's a likely bust.

Ike Davis was a year younger than Olt when he had a 0.88 mark in AA, with a .951 OPS there, and it looks like he has turned into an .800 OPS player so far.

Darryl Strawberry was only 20 years old in AA, 2 years younger than you would expect a typical good prospect at the level, and he crushed it for a 1.021 OPS, with (TB-H)SO of 0.96. Strawberry is a perfect example of why you don't use strikeout rates alone to assess risk.

I don't think the Mets will be getting Olt in a deal with Texas, anyway. I think they are waiting on signing Hamilton, and will then be willing to build a deal around Martin. Texas may be more willing to do Martin + another good prospect than Olt + another good prospect. Though it could be Martin + Olt, I wouldn't assume it.

Just heard josh Hamilton agreed to a 5 year deal with the angels....could make texas very desperate.

Desperate we need.

Duda is strictly DH material so he should be appealing for Texas.

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Originally Posted by scoot

Just heard josh Hamilton agreed to a 5 year deal with the angels....could make texas very desperate.

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This kinda throws a monkey wrench into all Dickey trade talk.

Could mean the Rangers get desperate but I doubt Martin is expendable now that they have a hole in the outfield left by Hamilton.

Could also mean the Rangers don't feel Dickey could help them compete in that division being that they also lost out on Hamilton, Grienke and others.

The Angels could now be in the mix for Dickey since they are desperate for a starting pitcher. Bourjos and Trout really don't excite me. Bourjos is pretty much equal to MDD at this point. Great defense and no offense. Atleast DD can hit some bombs.

Not sure if this is a good thing or bad thing for the Mets.

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Originally Posted by scoot

just heard josh hamilton agreed to a 5 year deal with the angels....could make texas very desperate.

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5/125, wow!

Okay time to go move Dickey and Duda for Bourjos and Trumbo.

Well, it doesn't look like Texas will part with any of those two unless they trade for Upton but they probably will have to part with one or both of those two to acquire him.

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Originally Posted by IAmARanger18

Okay time to go move Dickey and Duda for Bourjos and Trumbo.

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Ugh I don't know if I like that deal for the Mets. Trumbo is less then desirable in the outfield and Bourjos is basically Matt Den Decker. He never became the offensive player he was expected to develop into.