Considering the Mets are drafting for positional needs it seems in this upcoming draft (but pitching still being a possibility)..
That is a lot of data to sift through. But if we focus on the overall success and failure rates, we can see some huge differences between position players and pitchers. Position players ranked in the top 20 had a very high success rate at about 60%, while pitchers in the same group only succeeded about 40% of the time. And position players in the higher ranks level out at a success rate in the mid-to-high 20’s. The success rate for pitchers in the higher ranks levels out in the mid-to-high teens. Because of the smaller samples you get to when you break down deciles into the "superior" group, the variance is high. But we can see in the lower ranks, about 40% of position players become stars, while for pitchers it is more like 20-25%. And while a significant percentage of position players in the higher ranks become stars (as much as 23% in the 70-79 decile), the percentages for pitchers in the higher ranks are consistently under 10%.
Rebuilding through the draft is a lot more difficult than it seems considering the rate of prospect failure.Quote:
About 70% of Baseball America top 100 prospects fail.
Position player prospects succeed much more often than pitching prospects.
About 60% of position players ranked in Baseball America’s top 20 succeed in the majors.
About 40% of pitchers ranked in the top 20 succeed in the majors.
About 30% of position players ranked 21-100 succeed in the majors (with the success rate declining over that ranking range from about 36% to about 25%)
About 20% of pitchers ranked 21-100 succeed in the majors (with the success rate declining over that ranking range from about 22% to about 15%)
The success rate of prospects (both position player and pitchers) is nearly flat and relatively undifferentiated for players ranked 41-100, and especially those ranked 61-100.
Corner infield prospects and catchers are the most likely to succeed in the majors, but outfielders, third basemen and shortstops are the most likely to become stars.
Second basemen and pitchers are the least likely prospects to succeed in the majors or to become stars.
Prospect success rates have not improved much over time and there is little data to support the contention that prospects are more likely to succeed now than they have in the past.
Although position players are more of an exact science it's still not a guarantee they pan out or project to be All Stars drafted in a top 5 or 10 slot.
The Rays had top 5 picks consistently over an 11 year period, that's the type of losing it would take to possibly accumulate enough talent to win (if the Mets were attempting that route) and that's only if we have more success than failure in making those picks.
You don't know what is going to happen 2 years down the line. Look at how much baseball, or just your team itself, can change over the course of one season. Anything can happen. Nobody expected the A's to taste anything close to the playoffs, and the same can be said for the O's. I'm not saying that will happen to the Mets, but anything is possible. You can't look at what you have now, and try to judge what your team may be like in 2 years.
You have young pitching. Very good young pitching. If Niese doesn't get traded, and Wheeler does pan out, which I think he will, you could have a rotation of Wheeler, Harvery, Niese for years to come. That's not bad at all. In fact, if Wheeler does become your ace, Harvey continues pitching how he has, and Niese, who I still think hasn't shown full potential, continues to progress, this could be a deadly rotation in a couple years.
What the Mets really need is hitters. And what they desperately need is a bullpen than can close the door.
Mets fans these days are a lot more pessimistic than they need to be. It's not THAT bad. It isn't good, but it can only get better. Once some of these remaining contracts leave the books, and the team has some more financial flexibility, as well as youth coming up, it could be a recipe for good things to come.
I agree they should trade those guys and rebuild. Three years from now, Flores will likely be about as good an overall 3B as Wright (he'll be 32). We need other bats to go with him.
I'm not that keen though on counting on high draft picks. I just don't see a need for the team to struggle that badly in this market. Guard those high picks you do get, and use them wisely, but I don't want to see a team that loses 95 games for multiple years.
I would aim for a quick turnaround. Get young players in those trades who can help soon, and then start spending again in another year or two. We are going to need to add at least two premium players from outside the organization to have a shot. Maybe more if you are trading Wright and Dickey.