Originally Posted by

**thenaj17**
No it doesn't mean that and isn't incorrect. I don't know if i'm not explaining it clearly enough or you just don't get it. If Shaq got fouled for a final shot, clock basically expired and he needed to make 1 of them to win, there are no guarantees he makes 1 of them.

In this situation, there are 4 possibilities. He makes both OR misses both OR Makes 1st/misses 2nd OR Misses 1st/Makes 2nd. 25% chance he nails both, 50% he makes 1 or the other and 25% he bricks both.

Just because he's 50% for the course of a season/career, doesn't mean 1 of those 2 is a guarantee, just the statistical likeliness. The same risk is there for Shaq missing both FT's than it is MJ/Kobe/Bird to miss their shot. Therefore, the argument for a dominant big who can't make FT's is floored.

It could actually be argued that the 25% likelihood of not getting a single point is less of a risk than a 50% FG chance as it's twice as likely the player attempting the FG doesn't get a single point. This would be weighted slightly however due to possibility of player being fouled on FG attempt.