% of scoring/stealing-2 questions

Quote:

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Originally Posted by jetsfan28

It IS better to have 2nd and 3rd with 1 out than 1st and 2nd with 0 out. Also better to have runner on 3rd with 1 out than runner on 2nd with 0 out.

1st and 2nd, 0 out - .643 chance at a run
2nd and 3rd, 1 out - .698 chance

2nd, 0 out - .637 chance
3rd, 1 out - .674



Those are the ONLY times it makes sense to bunt given an average hitter/pitcher/runners/defense, if you need 1 run in those two situations

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But that 5% more of a chance at a run scored is quickly erased when you factor in the

* 20% of the time the bunt isn't successful
* The % of a productive out happening anyways

Quote:

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Originally Posted by jetsfan28

It IS better to have 2nd and 3rd with 1 out than 1st and 2nd with 0 out. Also better to have runner on 3rd with 1 out than runner on 2nd with 0 out.

1st and 2nd, 0 out - .643 chance at a run
2nd and 3rd, 1 out - .698 chance

2nd, 0 out - .637 chance
3rd, 1 out - .674



Those are the ONLY times it makes sense to bunt given an average hitter/pitcher/runners/defense, if you need 1 run in those two situations

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That's assuming the bunt is laid down successfully every time, which it isn't.


Ozzie Guillen just had a press conference saying they aren't running enough or bunting enough lol.

You have the opposite problem!

Although they were 7 for 8 stealing bases today (that's very good) it still only helped them score 1 one. They reached base 11 times.


Since the strike, 6 times a team has laid down 5 sac bunts in a game. Those teams are 3-3 in those games, and in each win, they won because they didn't allow more than 1 one in each game.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Jeffy25

That's assuming the bunt is laid down successfully every time, which it isn't.


Ozzie Guillen just had a press conference saying they aren't running enough or bunting enough lol.

You have the opposite problem!

Although they were 7 for 8 stealing bases today (that's very good) it still only helped them score 1 one. They reached base 11 times.


Since the strike, 6 times a team has laid down 5 sac bunts in a game. Those teams are 3-3 in those games, and in each win, they won because they didn't allow more than 1 one in each game.

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It's pretty amazing that all of this data is available and coaches STILL sometimes manage the traditional way.

I figure in the future once a new wave of coaches take over they will start managing smarter. Small ball seems to deeply ingrained in some of these older guys who were brought up when the data wasn't available.

Yup.

Also, moving this thread over to sabermetrics now that it has been discussed