And just to piggy back on this again, publications tend to get caught up in upside. Which makes sense because that's what people want to read about and dream on. A lot of good starting pitching prospects end up in the bullpen.
Many of the posters on this site know a lot more about the players in the phillies farm system than I do. I have never seen any of these players in action. All I know is what I read on various websites and publications. I make my statements based on publications because it's the only source available short of actually speaking to baseball scouts which I don't have access to.
The phillies farm system may be among the few worst in baseball. Their top pitching prospects may end up relief pitchers. Their infield prospects may just be overrated and placed in top 10 prospects because someone has to be. Cody Asche may not be a major league 3 rd baseman. I have no idea. Never saw any of them play live or for extended time on tv.
I will defer judgment to those contributors to site who have that type of first hand experience or have spoken to scouts or other people in the know.
As a fan, I hope these assessments are incorrect as they do not bode well for the future of this franchise.
The good news is that the prospect problem can change quite suddenly. Just a few years ago, we went from a bottom 10 to a top 10 system for a season (then traded 4 of our prospects and had Brown fizzle out). If say Quinn, Cozens, Tocci, and a pitcher to be named later have good seasons, the Phillies could be back to being a fairly high quality system.
Prospecting is all about the "ifs." We like to say that Prospect is _________, but in reality even the most certain prospects have a very wide range of possible outcomes. As an organization, you want to put yourself in a position where the likeliest outcomes are positive, but as the Royals pitching prospects have demonstrated, that can fall apart very quickly. Other systems have proven that you don't need highly regarded prospects to produce great talent (the mid '00's Phillies are a great example of this).
Howard and Utley were liked but not loved and Ruiz wasn't considered to be anything.
The lack of development of Brown from a highly regarded prospect really hurt
He should have been a solid contributing corner outfielder by now or atleast a young player with measurable upside
Instead, we are left hoping he can contribute in some way
The upside is still readily apparent when watching him but it's not clear he can tap into it. He's starting to remind me of Delmon Young or Lastings Milledge.
There certainly have been a number of high profile multitooled outfielders that have failed over last 10 yrs of so.
Those are good examples
I do think his OB% will be much better than Young's.
He strikes me as type of player who could develop in a low stress rebuilding environment where he is not seen a future star. ( certainly not Philly) and could get 500 AB's ( if he can stay healthy)
Something like Minnesota, cleveland, San Diego
Sickels' list is up. I'm getting confused about Asche now. I can't tell if these online types are overreacting to a stat line or if there's actually something to him. As of August/September all of the scouts were still saying he was a second division role player (aka replacement level). Maybe something changed in fall ball?
Sickels apparently likes the Phillies system as mid-tier fwiw. I think he's given a couple of toolsy pitchers a bit of a grade bump. They could turn out exactly as he describes, but I think the downside on that collection of arms is a little more than he makes out.
Nice rankings...good to see Morgan getting some love.
I found this old list, thought it was funny how at that time Gavin Floyd was ranked higher than Cole
over 1000 posts, closed. You guys can make another one if you want (obviously)