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View Full Version : New Rasmussen Poll Shows Toomey Way Ahead of Specter



cabernetluver
04-24-2009, 10:35 AM
I want to preface this post with full disclosure. I am not a fan of Rasmussen polls because they tend to be outliers in the context of Democratic v Republican elections. That said, I am not sure how to interrupt his polling in this Republican intramural contest. What I find interesting is that if the Pennsylvania Republicans vote for Toomey, it would make the state a probable Democratic pickup, whereas if they pick Specter, it is likely to stay Republican.

With all of this in mind, in the past I asked BB who he would vote for, and as a pragmatist who is a full on conservative, he said he would vote for Specter. I wonder if the majority of the Republicans in Pennsylvania will agree with him. If they don't then my prediction of the Republicans in the 21st century acting very much like the Democrats acted in the late 20th century will come to truth.

Will the Republicans pick purity or the pragmatism of getting part of a loaf is way better than getting nothing? Certainly in this case, Specter would be more conservative than the Democrats that I have seen mentioned who are center left in nature. Tune in.


Rasmussen (http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_2010/election_2010_senate_elections/pennsylvania/election_2010_pennsylvania_republican_senate_prima ry)


Incumbent Senator Arlen Specter trails former Congressman Pat Toomey by 21 points in an early look at Pennsylvania’s 2010 Republican Primary. Fifty-one percent (51%) of Republican voters statewide say they’d vote for Toomey while just 30% would support Specter.

blenderboy5
04-24-2009, 01:42 PM
Hey you mentioned me!:)

Basically I would vote for Specter... but full disclosure: I'm interning for him this summer so I'm a bit biased.

B ut basically it's incredible to think we're about to Joe Lieberman him and it saddens me. I realize he's much more liberal than Joe Lieberman is conservative, but still.

And to top it all off, the liberals in PA are *****ing him out because he didn't vote for the so-called Free Choice Act legislation.

ari1013
04-24-2009, 01:56 PM
Rasmussen has a conservative slant in most of his polls. I believe he consistently underplayed Obama's net support by something between 2-3% relative to other polls.

So if you assume he's undersampling moderates, then Specter's a little bit closer, but 21% is well outside the MoE.

ari1013
04-24-2009, 01:57 PM
Hey you mentioned me!:)

Basically I would vote for Specter... but full disclosure: I'm interning for him this summer so I'm a bit biased.

B ut basically it's incredible to think we're about to Joe Lieberman him and it saddens me. I realize he's much more liberal than Joe Lieberman is conservative, but still.

And to top it all off, the liberals in PA are *****ing him out because he didn't vote for the so-called Free Choice Act legislation.
He got close to 30% of the Democratic vote last time around. One of my very liberal friends voted for him last time. When that's a good chunk of your constituency, you can't really be surprised that they're upset he's against the unions.

blenderboy5
04-24-2009, 04:22 PM
And Specter's in a tough position... it'll be interesting how he plays this. Does he say "Look I can't win the primary" and win like Lieberman did? That would require voting with the unions and such.

However, if he loses the primary can he get enough democrats to vote for him, or will he just act like TR in the 1912 election (and thus insure a Democrat takes the seat by splitting the GOP vote but not enough of the Dem vote)?

ari1013
04-24-2009, 06:40 PM
And Specter's in a tough position... it'll be interesting how he plays this. Does he say "Look I can't win the primary" and win like Lieberman did? That would require voting with the unions and such.

However, if he loses the primary can he get enough democrats to vote for him, or will he just act like TR in the 1912 election (and thus insure a Democrat takes the seat by splitting the GOP vote but not enough of the Dem vote)?
If he runs hard to the right to win his primaries, the Dems will fully desert him. His best bet right now is to switch parties to become an independent like Uncle Joe. Then some Dems that liked him but didn't like the R will come out for him. And meanwhile, the realistic R's, like yourself, might still support him.