PDA

View Full Version : The problem with 41



DenButsu
03-03-2009, 12:15 AM
41 senate seats held by the Republican Party, that is. And it looks like the trouble could be that any single senator who wants to hold the party hostage to his demands just might be able to do so.

I learned of this story from this clip from The Young Turks (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8LV5o1_wC9Q).

Fished up a news article here (http://www.courier-journal.com/article/20090227/NEWS01/90227025).

I personally don't think he'd actually pull the trigger on this, but the power dynamics are interesting, at least.

-------------------------

Conversely, I imagine the same thing could be said on the Democratic side if Bunning were actually to quit, and Franken won, leaving the Democrats with 60 seats ("The problem with 60..."). On any piece of legislation that looked to divide along party lines, any single Democratic senator would be able to say "I won't vote for this unless..."

SmthBluCitrus
03-03-2009, 12:21 AM
Interesting. I had heard something about it but it didn't stick to my thought process.

You make a good point though, and in reality I think we've already seen that dynamic with the stimulus (in reverse, mind you).

blenderboy5
03-03-2009, 01:39 AM
There's 38 Republicans and three who haven't come out of the Democrat closet yet. And at least one of those three will probably lose their next election anyway (Specter).

SmthBluCitrus
03-03-2009, 01:42 AM
Do you think Specter will make it out of the primary?

Cubsrule
03-03-2009, 01:44 AM
There's 38 Republicans and three who haven't come out of the Democrat closet yet. And at least one of those three will probably lose their next election anyway (Specter).

:laugh:

blenderboy5
03-03-2009, 02:03 AM
Do you think Specter will make it out of the primary?

No. He barely made it out in 2004, and that was with President Bush, then Senator Rick Santorum, and most of the party elite supporting him. When an incumbent can only get 51% in the primary and 53% in the general election, there's an issue.

Add that to the fact that 2010 won't be an election year with a more popular (at least with the base) GOP President, a state that's gotten more liberal, and a Senator who's done everything to piss off the base... only a miracle will save Specter.

SmthBluCitrus
03-03-2009, 02:12 AM
No. He barely made it out in 2004, and that was with President Bush, then Senator Rick Santorum, and most of the party elite supporting him. When an incumbent can only get 51% in the primary and 53% in the general election, there's an issue.

Add that to the fact that 2010 won't be an election year with a more popular (at least with the base) GOP President, a state that's gotten more liberal, and a Senator who's done everything to piss off the base... only a miracle will save Specter.

OK, assuming he gets primaried, do you think he'll pull a Lieberman and run as an Indy ... effectively splitting the Republican vote and almost insuring a Democratic victory?

blenderboy5
03-03-2009, 02:18 AM
OK, assuming he gets primaried, do you think he'll pull a Lieberman and run as an Indy ... effectively splitting the Republican vote and almost insuring a Democratic victory?

If Specter gets the nomination, he wins the seat again no questions asked. That's why he's shifting even more to the left, because he's in the awful position of having to please a small minority to get the nod as well as the majority that would deliver the seat to him. So if Republicans give him the nomination, he'll defeat any opponent, as it would basically be Specter vs a socialist.

Now will he pull a Lieberman? I think he could win if he did that. Despite what some may think, Pennsylvania's not that Republican (to the contrary of the incredibly annoying trait of calling it a swing state, it's not really). So there isn't really a huge republican group to split that would throw the election one way or the other imo.

If he runs as an indi, chances are he'll lose though. He won't get many of the Republicans who made up his previous 53%. And he'll get most of the moderate Dems, but I don't know if it'll be enough to get him 50.1% in 2010. I hope he wins, but idk if he will.

SmthBluCitrus
03-03-2009, 02:20 AM
Thanks for the insight.

ari1013
03-03-2009, 03:15 AM
Specter took 26% of the Dems in PA in 2004 (including a good friend of mine). He could do that again... BUT he probably wouldn't last a tough primary fight.

behindmydesk
03-03-2009, 09:47 AM
I have no doubt that Specter will remain a senator. He'll be a I not an R though. I have thought this for some time, that Specter will pull a liberman.

yankeesmindset
03-03-2009, 10:45 AM
Specter has gotta go!