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Doc Fluty
09-15-2008, 06:51 PM
ok.. so all i did was look at the RCP electoral map with no toss ups... and changed new hampshire to mccain and now im at 269-269

NH went to bush in 2000 and obama is only up a point or 2..

so my question is.. what happens if neither get 270?

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/?map=10

JHG722
09-15-2008, 07:28 PM
Look at Michigan too.

SmthBluCitrus
09-15-2008, 07:31 PM
There are a few different possibilities of it going 269 - 269. But, should that happen, it goes to a vote in the US House. And, since Dems hold majorities, the election likely goes to Obama. Although, in the case of 269-269, Obama would probably win the popular vote as well.

Also, look at Nebraska. They separate their EVs based on who wins the district. Obama could actually "steal" a vote out of eastern Nebraska (Omaha -- Nebraska D-2) because of some spillover from Iowa.

Edit: if you go to msnbc.com (yes yes ... a liberal site, but I'll link to their political page below for you) and you scroll down to maps & info and open the "potential scenarios" tab, you can hear some Chuck Todd commentary on possible outcomes. He's generally quite unbiased, and I think you'll appreciate his perspective. He gives an overview of a McCain or Obama landslide, McCain or Obama squeaker, and three scenarios for a possible 269t.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/3032553/

ari1013
09-15-2008, 10:25 PM
At 269-269, each state gets a single vote to cast by their House representatives. The expectations for the new house put the states at 29-21 for the Democrats. So Obama would very likely be the winner if that happens.