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DenButsu
06-18-2008, 10:04 AM
There will be truckloads of polls between now and election day.

Post new poll results here.

ari1013
06-18-2008, 12:02 PM
I'll start this one off with today's Quinnipiac Poll results:

Obama - McCain

current (last month)
Florida: 47-43 (41-45)
Ohio: 48-42 (40-44)
Pennsylvania: 52-40 (46-40)

This poll confirms a few other poll results showing Ohio moving out of the MoE and into the likely Obama column. Florida's still too close to call. Pennsylvania's looking like a lock.

ari1013
06-18-2008, 12:29 PM
The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Alaska voters finds John McCain earning 45% of the vote while Barack Obama attracts 41%. Seven percent (7%) say they’d vote for some other candidate while another 6% are not sure. This is the third straight poll showing Obama within single digits of the presumptive GOP nominee. A month ago, McCain was up by nine. Two months ago, it was McCain by nine.


Wow! Obama and McCain are at the MoE in Alaska. I know it's early, but if McCain loses Alaska (which Bush won by a 25 point margin over Kerry), where else is he going to lose?

LAKERMANIA
06-18-2008, 12:37 PM
Wow! Obama and McCain are at the MoE in Alaska. I know it's early, but if McCain loses Alaska (which Bush won by a 25 point margin over Kerry), where else is he going to lose?

did bush win New Mexico in the last election, i believe NM will be won by the democrats this election as well

DenButsu
06-18-2008, 12:40 PM
did bush win New Mexico in the last election, i believe NM will be won by the democrats this election as well

Colorado's leaning Dem, Nevada's in play, and Obama's making a strong move for Virginia. He's sending staffers to all 50 states. It's a full-on "re-draw the electoral map and turn red states blue" strategy.

Now of course, whether or not it will be effective remains to be seen. But I love the "give no quarter" aspect of the approach.

nate_1346
06-18-2008, 02:18 PM
I think Iowa is the biggest lock to switch parties.

PHX-SOXFAN
06-18-2008, 03:30 PM
This is music to my ears:

http://news.yahoo.com/s/csm/aarizona

this would be hilarious:clap:

ari1013
06-18-2008, 03:58 PM
did bush win New Mexico in the last election, i believe NM will be won by the democrats this election as well
Well yeah, but Gore won it in 2000, and Bush only won it by a tiny margin. NM swings both ways. Alaska never goes Democratic.

ari1013
06-18-2008, 04:02 PM
This is music to my ears:

http://news.yahoo.com/s/csm/aarizona

this would be hilarious:clap:
Nah, he's hoping that Obama will spend money there. In actuality, McCain's up 52-40 according to a poll I saw for Arizona.

The states that Obama's going to take back for the Blue Team according to recent polls are:

1. Ohio
2. Iowa
3. New Mexico
4. Colorado


The states that are essentially ties right now:
1. Virginia
2. North Carolina
3. Alaska
4. Missouri
5. Florida
6. Nevada

The states that McCain's taking back for the Red Team:
:cricket:


Obama leads 293-171 with 74 too close to call.

ari1013
06-19-2008, 09:47 AM
A list of the polls released this morning:
Obama-McCain
Florida (ARG): 49-44
New Hampshire (ARG): 51-39

Ohio (Rasmussen): 43-44

Wisconsin (SUSA): 52-43

Ras puts Ohio back into the too close to call column, ARG begins to pull Florida towards the leans Obama column. Other than that, no major surprises this morning.

Updated EV: Obama leads 273-171 with 94 too close to call. Keep in mind that you only need 270 to win.

ari1013
06-21-2008, 11:23 AM
More polls:

Obama - McCain

California (SUSA) 53 - 41

Iowa (SUSA) 49 - 45 -- just within the MoE, but still averages to a lean-Obama

New Hampshire (Ras) 50 - 39

Nevada (Ras) 42 - 45 -- just within the MoE, stays too close to call

Obama still leads 273 - 171 with 94 too close to call.

yaowowrocket11
06-21-2008, 11:26 AM
Polling Data
Poll Date Sample Obama (D) McCain (R) Spread
RCP Average 06/12 - 06/19 -- 47.5 42.0 Obama +5.5
USA Today/Gallup 06/15 - 06/19 1310 LV 50 44 Obama +6.0
Newsweek 06/18 - 06/19 896 RV 51 36 Obama +15.0
FOX News 06/17 - 06/18 900 RV 45 41 Obama +4.0
Rasmussen Tracking 06/17 - 06/19 3000 LV 48 44 Obama +4.0
Gallup Tracking 06/16 - 06/19 2648 RV 46 44 Obama +2.0
Reuters/Zogby 06/12 - 06/14 1113 LV 47 42 Obama +5.0
ABC News/Wash Post 06/12 - 06/15 -- 49 45 Obama +4.0
Cook/RT Strategies 06/12 - 06/15 880 RV 44 40 Obama +4.0

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.html

ari1013
06-21-2008, 11:48 AM
Polling Data
Poll Date Sample Obama (D) McCain (R) Spread
RCP Average 06/12 - 06/19 -- 47.5 42.0 Obama +5.5
USA Today/Gallup 06/15 - 06/19 1310 LV 50 44 Obama +6.0
Newsweek 06/18 - 06/19 896 RV 51 36 Obama +15.0
FOX News 06/17 - 06/18 900 RV 45 41 Obama +4.0
Rasmussen Tracking 06/17 - 06/19 3000 LV 48 44 Obama +4.0
Gallup Tracking 06/16 - 06/19 2648 RV 46 44 Obama +2.0
Reuters/Zogby 06/12 - 06/14 1113 LV 47 42 Obama +5.0
ABC News/Wash Post 06/12 - 06/15 -- 49 45 Obama +4.0
Cook/RT Strategies 06/12 - 06/15 880 RV 44 40 Obama +4.0

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.html
The Harris Poll has Obama up 11 nationally as well.

DenButsu
06-21-2008, 01:16 PM
Here's my favorite one of all. :cool:

Not that it has much bearing on the race overall - or should, at least. But just because it goes so strongly against the conventional wisdom of the "whitey" headlines.



Battle of the Spouses: A Bit Better for Obama
Early Edge is Michelle Obama's, But Plenty of Room to Move for Cindy McCain
ANALYSIS By GARY LANGER
June 18, 2008

In the battle of the spouses the early edge is Michelle Obama's, in favorable views and intensity of sentiment alike. But there are sharp differences among groups, and plenty of room to move for the less well-known Cindy McCain.
A look at what people think of the two potential first ladies.

Forty-eight percent of Americans in a new ABC News/Washington Post poll see Obama favorably, vs. 39 percent for McCain, a 9-point Obama advantage. Slightly more, though, also view Obama unfavorably – 29 percent vs. McCain's 25 percent.

Substantially more, 36 percent, haven't yet formed an opinion of McCain, vs. 23 percent in Obama's case. For both, those are sizable numbers who've yet to make a judgment.

The popularity of presidential candidates' spouses does not drive vote preferences. But in contests where every advantage can count, spouses do play a very public role. Cindy McCain is highlighting her support for children's charities with a visit to Vietnam this week, while Michelle Obama hosts the ABC program "The View" on Wednesday. abc (http://abcnews.go.com/PollingUnit/Vote2008/story?id=5185695&page=1)

nate_1346
06-21-2008, 05:02 PM
North Dakota's polls suprised me, Obama is leading in the one I looked at.

ari1013
06-24-2008, 02:36 PM
According to SUSA:


19 Weeks Out, Obama and McCain Neck And Neck In Hoosier State: In an election today in Indiana, Barack Obama takes 48% of the vote, John McCain 47% of the vote -- a statistical tie -- according to this latest SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for WHAS-TV Louisville and WCPO-TV Cincinnati. Obama's 1-point lead is within the survey's 4 percentage point margin of sampling error, and these results should be reported as a tie. Among men, McCain leads by 5; among women, Obama leads by 7 -- a 12-point gender gap. Among voters age 18 to 49, Obama leads by 5; among voters 50+, McCain leads by 3. Obama leads by 22 points among voters under age 35. 16% of Republicans cross over to vote for Democrat Obama; 19% of Democrats cross over to vote for Republican McCain; Independents favor Obama by 7 points. Among those voters who say they have already made up their minds, the two candidates are tied; among the 25% who say they could still change their mind, Obama leads by 2.


Obama might actually pull off Indiana. At the very least, this moves Indiana into the "too close to call" category, thus putting my count at:

Obama 259 - McCain 162

Too close to call = 117
Colorado - 9
Florida - 27
Indiana - 11
Missouri - 11
Nebraska CD2 - 1
Nevada - 5
New Mexico - 5
North Carolina - 15
Ohio - 20
Virginia - 13

And of all those TCTC states, only NC is on the red side of the MoE. Obama has a very good chance of hitting 300 EVs.

ari1013
06-24-2008, 02:38 PM
North Dakota's polls suprised me, Obama is leading in the one I looked at.
It's close, but just outside the MoE in McCain's favor. MT's another one like that. Obama would need to win the popular vote by around 10% for him to really have a shot at those states.

ari1013
06-24-2008, 09:56 PM
It's close, but just outside the MoE in McCain's favor. MT's another one like that. Obama would need to win the popular vote by around 10% for him to really have a shot at those states.
Maybe I spoke too soon. On the heels of Newsweek's 51-36 poll, The Bloomberg poll puts Obama up 15% as well:

Obama 48
McCain 33
Barr/Nader 7
Undecided 12

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=agCTbSDJ83rc&refer=home

cubs92
06-26-2008, 01:20 PM
despite all theses polls, i think mccain will be the president when all is said and done. just a feeling

blenderboy5
06-27-2008, 12:26 AM
I have a quick question. Why are Barr and Nader lumped together? J/w

ari1013
06-27-2008, 08:11 AM
I have a quick question. Why are Barr and Nader lumped together? J/w
The place I saw the poll didn't give a breakdown -- it just said "Barr and Nader combined for 7% more."

ari1013
06-27-2008, 08:12 AM
despite all theses polls, i think mccain will be the president when all is said and done. just a feeling
Stay away from casinos for a while. ;)

ari1013
07-03-2008, 09:30 AM
http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/montana/election_2008_montana_presidential_election2

Nothing exciting was going on until this poll. The past polls have shown McCain up double digits in Kentucky, Texas, and West Virginia. Obama up 30 in NY, 20 in CT, etc.

But now this one puts Obama up 5 in MT. I guess that ad strategy is paying off.

Meanwhile McCain's spending his meager resources on Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Minnesota -- the latter 3 being strong Obama states (leads greater than 10). We'll see if he can get a payoff out of it.

ari1013
07-03-2008, 09:32 AM
Updating:

Obama 268 - McCain 162

Too close to call = 111
Florida - 27
Indiana - 11
Missouri - 11
Nebraska CD2 - 1
Nevada - 5
New Mexico - 5
North Carolina - 15
Ohio - 20
Virginia - 13
Montana - 3

And of all those TCTC states, only NC and MO are on the red side of the MoE. Obama has a very good chance of hitting 300 EVs. McCain, on the other hand, either needs to win ALL of those states, or he needs to win back CO from the Obama column.

DenButsu
07-03-2008, 10:56 AM
McCain, on the other hand, either needs to win ALL of those states, or he needs to win back CO from the Obama column.

No way, Jose. We're gonna turn my homestate back to its proper BLUE color (http://www.ruralvotes.com/thebackforty/?p=134) this year. :nod:

ari1013
07-24-2008, 03:49 PM
McCain's doing a little better in state polls. The current list of toss-ups is as follows:

Too close to call = 133
Alaska - 3
Colorado - 9
Florida - 27
Indiana - 11
Missouri - 11
Montana - 3
Nebraska CD2 - 1
Nevada - 5
New Hampshire - 4
New Mexico - 5
North Carolina - 15
North Dakota - 3
Ohio - 20
South Dakota - 3
Virginia - 13

With Obama holding 255 solid EVs and McCain holding 150 solid EVs.

Average projection puts Obama in the lead 292.4 to 245.6 overall.

ari1013
07-31-2008, 02:31 PM
It's been a week, so here's the latest update. A whole series of battleground polls have come out showing Obama with leads (within the MoE) in Florida, Ohio, and Michigan. Obama has statistically significant leads in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Minnesota. Meanwhile, McCain has opened up big leads in Kansas, Nebraska (making it nearly impossible that Obama's got a shot at any CD there), and Mississippi, while maintaining the same insignificant lead in North Carolina.

As such, the numbers have changed slightly:

Too close to call = 149
Alaska - 3
Colorado - 9
Florida - 27
Indiana - 11
Michigan - 17
Missouri - 11
Montana - 3
Nevada - 5
New Hampshire - 4
New Mexico - 5
North Carolina - 15
North Dakota - 3
Ohio - 20
South Dakota - 3
Virginia - 13

With Obama holding 238 solid EVs and McCain holding 151 solid EVs.

The average projection this week puts Obama in the lead 305.4 to 232.6. But part of the reason for that was the bump from the Eurotrip. I'm expecting the projection figures to fall next time.

The 87 EV difference in solid EVs is now as close as its been since Hillary dropped out.

ari1013
08-07-2008, 08:31 AM
No changes to the list of Too Close To Calls, but when leaners are included, we're now at 298 Obama and 240 McCain.

So this is the second week in a row that McCain has picked up some ground on Obama.

b1e9a8r5s
08-07-2008, 10:50 AM
No changes to the list of Too Close To Calls, but when leaners are included, we're now at 298 Obama and 240 McCain.

So this is the second week in a row that McCain has picked up some ground on Obama.

I think we will see this trend continue. The McCain campaign seems to be runny smoother since the latest shake up. I don't know if I see McCain coming all the way back to win, but I really don't see the landslide scenario that I've heard a lot of Obama supporters talk about on here.

DenButsu
08-07-2008, 11:29 AM
The McCain campaign seems to be runny

Aw, come on now, you're not gonna make it that easy for me, are ya? :smoking:

b1e9a8r5s
08-07-2008, 11:44 AM
Aw, come on now, you're not gonna make it that easy for me, are ya? :smoking:

Haha, I put that right on the tee for ya. Meant to say running, obviously.

DenButsu
08-07-2008, 12:00 PM
Haha, I put that right on the tee for ya. Meant to say running, obviously.

Oh, I know, j/k of course.

b1e9a8r5s
08-07-2008, 12:08 PM
So do any of you see a blowout coming? I'm a McCain guy, but I think I'm looking at it objectively. It just seems to me, that Obama would have a bigger lead now if we were heading in that direction. I know that VPs haven't been named and we haven't gotten to the conventions, but I don't expect one side or the other to get a huge boast from that, maybe I'm wrong. Just wanted to hear you guys take on it. What you THINK will happen, not what you WANT to happen.

At this point I'd say Obama wins in a fairly tight race, maybe with 290 electoral votes.

ari1013
08-07-2008, 02:39 PM
So do any of you see a blowout coming? I'm a McCain guy, but I think I'm looking at it objectively. It just seems to me, that Obama would have a bigger lead now if we were heading in that direction. I know that VPs haven't been named and we haven't gotten to the conventions, but I don't expect one side or the other to get a huge boast from that, maybe I'm wrong. Just wanted to hear you guys take on it. What you THINK will happen, not what you WANT to happen.

At this point I'd say Obama wins in a fairly tight race, maybe with 290 electoral votes.
Obama will likely finish with 280 to 300 EVs. McCain will have 235-255 most likely. Is it possible that McCain wins? Sure. Is it possible that Obama blows him out? Sure.

But the most likely scenario is that McCain is unable to take any of the Gore states from Obama save maybe New Mexico (or Michigan if he takes Romney). And on the flip side, Obama has a very good shot at taking Colorado, Indiana, New Hampshire, Ohio, and/or Virginia. The odds are definitely stacked against McCain.

DenButsu
09-02-2008, 09:27 PM
pollster.com's latest (as of 9/1/08) results of averaging the major polls:

http://www.pollster.com/08USPresGEMvO.php

http://www.pollster.com/polls/us/08-us-pres-ge-mvo.php

SmthBluCitrus
09-05-2008, 01:38 PM
Most of you know that I'm not a huge fan of early polling, but here's something I found a little revealing.

In Iowa in particular, I think they're overstating the 3rd party votes. Nader had his best year in 2000, and he only managed 2% in the state. Barr and McKinney will also be lucky to get a combined 1%. So, I think the first sets of numbers between just Obama and McCain is closer to what the vote might be in each state.


TIME / CNN / ORC
8/31 - 9/2/08
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews
(story)

Iowa (828 RV, 3.5%)
Obama 55, McCain 40
Obama 51, McCain 38, Nader 4, Barr 3, McKinney 2

Minnesota (742 RV, 3.5%)
Obama 53, McCain 41
Obama 51, McCain 37, Nader 4, Barr 2, McKinney 1

Ohio (685 RV, 3.5%)
Obama 47, McCain 45
Obama 45, McCain 44, Nader 5, Barr 2, McKinney 1

http://www.pollster.com/blogs/timecnn_iowa_minnesota_ohio_83.php

I was also looking at the story that followed and one key paragraph struck me.

Poll gives Obama edge in two of three key states (http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/09/03/states.poll/index.html)


"Obama is winning in all regions of the state, even in the western counties, where George W. Bush beat John Kerry by 17 points," CNN Polling Director Keating Holland said. "Obama is winning rural voters in Iowa, not something you see in many other states."

Eastern Iowa is a bit of a Dem stronghold (that's where the larger population centers are), and the state generally balances out when you get past Des Moines and go out west to the more rural areas of the state. Basically (in terms of red states), western Iowa is Kansas while Eastern Iowa is quite a few shades to the blue.

But, Obama is winning districts on the west side of the state. This is the district that elected Rep. Steve King (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Steve_King), arguably the most conservative House Rep in Washington. (Which is also good news for state Dems ... we would LOVE to get him out of office).

b1e9a8r5s
09-05-2008, 02:04 PM
I don't think McCain is going to win Iowa or Minnesotta, and don't think he needs to. Ohio is an absolute must. For McCain to win he will need Ohio, Florida, Missouri, Indiana, NC, Virgina, and then two of the 3 out west (Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada).

I think at this point, Florida, Missouri, Indiana, and NC all seem doable for McCain. I think it comes down to Ohio, Virgina and out west.

SmthBluCitrus
09-05-2008, 02:15 PM
I don't think McCain is going to win Iowa or Minnesotta, and don't think he needs to. Ohio is an absolute must. For McCain to win he will need Ohio, Florida, Missouri, Indiana, NC, Virgina, and then two of the 3 out west (Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada).

I think at this point, Florida, Missouri, Indiana, and NC all seem doable for McCain. I think it comes down to Ohio, Virgina and out west.

I think the McCain camp would disagree with you. They're pouring ad money into Iowa. I don't believe Minnesota is as important anymore though, seeing as how they slapped Pawlenty in the face.

But, yea -- McCain does need 2 of the 3 out west. I was reading another article about nationwide numbers and GOTV efforts underway throughout the swings in the country. I don't remember where I saw it, if I find it I'll edit and link it in.

But, it shows Obama polling ahead in Colorado slightly, and New Mexico and Nevada by a bit larger of a margin. I'm not as concerned about the polling numbers though. I think there are better tells.

Take Nevada. In 2004, the Republicans held about a 4,500-person voter registration advantage. Right now, the Dems hold a 60,000-person lead. That's huge! That's a turnaround of nearly 65,000 people in a very short period of time. Most of this is in the Vegas area. Now that "Arizona" McCain is the nominee, I would imagine that difference may subside a bit, but the race was tight in 'o4 -- Bush won by about 2.5%. But, I don't think Nevada will be red this year.

I think the Dems are conceding Florida. The party is in shambles there after the early primary fiasco. And, with Crist as the Gov, I don't think Obama has a shot ... unless the Miami area turns out a HUGE vote.

I also don't think McCain takes Virginia -- but, that's the state I think it all comes down to. If we see Virginia break blue early, it's all over for McCain.

PHX-SOXFAN
09-05-2008, 04:00 PM
I think the McCain camp would disagree with you. They're pouring ad money into Iowa. I don't believe Minnesota is as important anymore though, seeing as how they slapped Pawlenty in the face.

But, yea -- McCain does need 2 of the 3 out west. I was reading another article about nationwide numbers and GOTV efforts underway throughout the swings in the country. I don't remember where I saw it, if I find it I'll edit and link it in.

But, it shows Obama polling ahead in Colorado slightly, and New Mexico and Nevada by a bit larger of a margin. I'm not as concerned about the polling numbers though. I think there are better tells.

Take Nevada. In 2004, the Republicans held about a 4,500-person voter registration advantage. Right now, the Dems hold a 60,000-person lead. That's huge! That's a turnaround of nearly 65,000 people in a very short period of time. Most of this is in the Vegas area. Now that "Arizona" McCain is the nominee, I would imagine that difference may subside a bit, but the race was tight in 'o4 -- Bush won by about 2.5%. But, I don't think Nevada will be red this year.

I think the Dems are conceding Florida. The party is in shambles there after the early primary fiasco. And, with Crist as the Gov, I don't think Obama has a shot ... unless the Miami area turns out a HUGE vote.

I also don't think McCain takes Virginia -- but, that's the state I think it all comes down to. If we see Virginia break blue early, it's all over for McCain.

on a personal note, a college buddy of mine is a lawyer in vegas and voted republican everytime and says he will definitely vote for obama this year. Nevada's economy is really being affected by the mortgage crisis and layoffs. It will be a difficult task for McCain to win that state.

GHGHCP
09-05-2008, 04:34 PM
on a personal note, a college buddy of mine is a lawyer in vegas and voted republican everytime and says he will definitely vote for obama this year. Nevada's economy is really being affected by the mortgage crisis and layoffs. It will be a difficult task for McCain to win that state.

Living here I can tell you there's a great chance this state turns blue.

ari1013
09-05-2008, 09:20 PM
I don't think McCain is going to win Iowa or Minnesotta, and don't think he needs to. Ohio is an absolute must. For McCain to win he will need Ohio, Florida, Missouri, Indiana, NC, Virgina, and then two of the 3 out west (Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada).

I think at this point, Florida, Missouri, Indiana, and NC all seem doable for McCain. I think it comes down to Ohio, Virgina and out west.
McCain's stuck playing defense in all of those states. As you said, Obama really only needs to peel away 2 of those states to win.

ari1013
09-05-2008, 09:22 PM
I think the McCain camp would disagree with you. They're pouring ad money into Iowa. I don't believe Minnesota is as important anymore though, seeing as how they slapped Pawlenty in the face.

But, yea -- McCain does need 2 of the 3 out west. I was reading another article about nationwide numbers and GOTV efforts underway throughout the swings in the country. I don't remember where I saw it, if I find it I'll edit and link it in.

But, it shows Obama polling ahead in Colorado slightly, and New Mexico and Nevada by a bit larger of a margin. I'm not as concerned about the polling numbers though. I think there are better tells.

Take Nevada. In 2004, the Republicans held about a 4,500-person voter registration advantage. Right now, the Dems hold a 60,000-person lead. That's huge! That's a turnaround of nearly 65,000 people in a very short period of time. Most of this is in the Vegas area. Now that "Arizona" McCain is the nominee, I would imagine that difference may subside a bit, but the race was tight in 'o4 -- Bush won by about 2.5%. But, I don't think Nevada will be red this year.

I think the Dems are conceding Florida. The party is in shambles there after the early primary fiasco. And, with Crist as the Gov, I don't think Obama has a shot ... unless the Miami area turns out a HUGE vote.

I also don't think McCain takes Virginia -- but, that's the state I think it all comes down to. If we see Virginia break blue early, it's all over for McCain.
Obama's put a lot of money into Florida and last I saw he was only down 1 there. I wouldn't say he's given up on it.

But then again, he's up 3 in North Dakota right now. This election is either going to be razor thin or a total blowout. Nothing in between.

DenButsu
09-05-2008, 09:39 PM
I still have high hopes that my state - Colorado - will go blue. That's 9, so it's not a Florida of course, but it's not insignificant.

ari1013
09-05-2008, 10:43 PM
Here are the real battleground states, regardless of what the Talking Heads on TV would have you believe:
CO, IN, FL, MT, NC, ND, NH, NV, OH, SD, & VA

All of those states are within the MoE and have been within the MoE pretty much since May.

Aside from that, Obama has about 260 EVs. That means he needs 9 for the tie (and win via House vote or a win in Omaha). That could very well be Colorado. Or it could be Nevada+New Hampshire.

But what that basically means is that at a minimum, McCain needs to win 10 of those 11 states to win the presidency. Obama needs to win 1 or 2.

SmthBluCitrus
09-06-2008, 09:10 AM
Obama's put a lot of money into Florida and last I saw he was only down 1 there. I wouldn't say he's given up on it.

But then again, he's up 3 in North Dakota right now. This election is either going to be razor thin or a total blowout. Nothing in between.

Oh, I realize they've poured money into Florida. And, I think the Biden pick helps the ticket there. But, Florida is the only state that Obama has been out organized by the McCain campaign. They're registering people left and right there in the north-central part of the state and the panhandle. I just think that Obama will need to turn out record numbers along the Atlantic Coast and Tampa. It's possible, but I think McCain takes Florida.

marques724
09-06-2008, 11:39 AM
Living in VA I can say McCain I can say that this state has a real shot turning blue. Obama just needs to keep Michigan and Penn blue and take VA OH or FL and he wins the election.

DenButsu
09-06-2008, 12:08 PM
Living in VA I can say McCain I can say that this state has a real shot turning blue. Obama just needs to keep Michigan and Penn blue and take VA OH or FL and he wins the election.

In a way, it comes down to what's more important for the Michigan worker - a future in building hybrids, or a future in shooting moose?

SmthBluCitrus
09-06-2008, 12:11 PM
:laugh2:

You can eat a moose, you can't eat a hybrid. ;)

Doc Fluty
09-07-2008, 08:12 PM
mccain up by 3


latest Gallup Poll Daily tracking update shows John McCain moving ahead of Barack Obama, 48% to 45%, when registered voters are asked for whom they would vote if the presidential election were held today.

These results are based on Sept. 4-6 interviewing, and include two full days of polling after the conclusion of the Republican National Convention last Thursday night. McCain has outpolled Obama on both Friday and Saturday, and is receiving a convention bounce just as Obama did last week.

Tomorrow's report will be the first in which all interviews were conducted after the conclusion of the convention. Gallup measures convention bounces by comparing candidate support in the last poll done entirely before a party's presidential nominating convention begins with the first polling conducted entirely after its conclusion.

McCain's 48% share of the vote ties for his largest since Gallup tracking began in early March. He registered the same level of support in early May. This is also McCain's largest advantage over Obama since early May, when he led by as much as six percentage points. Obama has led McCain for most of the campaign, and for nearly all of the time since clinching the Democratic nomination in early June.


http://www.gallup.com/poll/110050/Gallup-Daily-McCain-Moves-Ahead-48-45.aspx

b1e9a8r5s
09-08-2008, 12:13 AM
I had to a double take after I saw this. It's only one poll, but this is rather shocking...

"In the new poll, taken Friday through Sunday, McCain leads Obama by 54%-44% among those seen as most likely to vote. The survey of 1,022 adults, including 959 registered voters, has a margin of error of +/— 3 points for both samples.

Among the findings:

• Before the convention, Republicans by 47%-39% were less enthusiastic than usual about voting. Now, they are more enthusiastic by 60%-24%, a sweeping change that narrows a key Democratic advantage. Democrats report being more enthusiastic by 67%-19%.

• Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, a national unknown before McCain chose her for the ticket 10 days ago, draws a strong reaction from voters on both sides. Now, 29% say she makes them more likely to vote for McCain, 21% less likely."

http://www.usatoday.com/news/politics/election2008/2008-09-07-poll_N.htm

DenButsu
09-08-2008, 12:28 AM
mccain up by 3
[/B]
http://www.gallup.com/poll/110050/Gallup-Daily-McCain-Moves-Ahead-48-45.aspx

When you bold the entire post, the "emphasis" tends to lose its emphasis.

:p

Doc Fluty
09-08-2008, 04:52 AM
3 points arent anything really 2 months out.. i was just putting the latest up there... i just found it interesting considering obama had a 7 point lead last week and was heading for a landslide, so mccain picks palin and now the worlds shook up..

but here is a new one that says McCain takes 4-point lead over Obama in poll

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20080908/pl_nm/usa_politics_poll_dc;_ylt=AoSe12FWJxeHd1GrTOcSeD3C w5R4

cambovenzi
09-08-2008, 04:57 AM
better than losing:shrug:

ari1013
09-08-2008, 12:26 PM
3 points arent anything really 2 months out.. i was just putting the latest up there... i just found it interesting considering obama had a 7 point lead last week and was heading for a landslide, so mccain picks palin and now the worlds shook up..

but here is a new one that says McCain takes 4-point lead over Obama in poll

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20080908/pl_nm/usa_politics_poll_dc;_ylt=AoSe12FWJxeHd1GrTOcSeD3C w5R4
Yeah that's what happens with conventions. In two weeks the dust should settle and we'll see where everything stands. Remember that Dukakis led by 17 after his convention. Heck, Dole pulled even after his.

b1e9a8r5s
09-08-2008, 12:41 PM
I've got to say, the Palin pick seems to have given the McCain campaign new life. It appears that McCain has got some momentum in the national polls (although the plus 10 appears to be an outlier at this point). I can't wait to see some of the state polls and see if has translated to anything in the important states.

hoosiercubsfan
09-09-2008, 08:22 AM
McCain Now Winning Majority of Independents
Majority of independents now prefer him over Obama, 52% to 37%
http://www.gallup.com/poll/110137/McCain-Now-Winning-Majority-Independents.aspx

Just a continuation of the post convention bounce I believe. But would be really interesting to know if the indies are truly indies or are they the R's that left the party in disgust with the way Bush grew the government.

ari1013
09-09-2008, 09:19 AM
I've got to say, the Palin pick seems to have given the McCain campaign new life. It appears that McCain has got some momentum in the national polls (although the plus 10 appears to be an outlier at this point). I can't wait to see some of the state polls and see if has translated to anything in the important states.
Doesn't really look like it. In the battlegrounds, McCain's gained an average of 0.3%. In some states, like Florida and Colorado, McCain's lower than he was pre-Conventions.

McCain is making HUGE ground in states like Alabama, Mississippi, Utah, and Alaska. Ironically, because of that, McCain now has a great shot of winning the popular vote and losing the electoral.

ari1013
09-09-2008, 09:21 AM
http://www.gallup.com/poll/110137/McCain-Now-Winning-Majority-Independents.aspx

Just a continuation of the post convention bounce I believe. But would be really interesting to know if the indies are truly indies or are they the R's that left the party in disgust with the way Bush grew the government.
I think the latter is true. Gallup's reporting a huge increase in indies supporting him, meanwhile other agencies are reporting a huge increase in the % of Republicans in the population.

b1e9a8r5s
09-09-2008, 01:21 PM
Doesn't really look like it. In the battlegrounds, McCain's gained an average of 0.3%. In some states, like Florida and Colorado, McCain's lower than he was pre-Conventions.

McCain is making HUGE ground in states like Alabama, Mississippi, Utah, and Alaska. Ironically, because of that, McCain now has a great shot of winning the popular vote and losing the electoral.

The polls in Mich (-1), Ohio (+7), Penn (-2), Wisconsin (-3) and even Washington (-4) were all significant improvements from the previous polling data.

hoosiercubsfan
09-09-2008, 01:28 PM
I think the latter is true. Gallup's reporting a huge increase in indies supporting him, meanwhile other agencies are reporting a huge increase in the % of Republicans in the population.

Yes I really think that the good amount of indies they are putting in the McCain camp are actually the disenfranchised R's that dropped off the R rolls with the disgust at the direction of the party. You can only take so much before you say to hell with you i'll just stay home. And I believe the amount of people who feel that way is a much larger number than people expect. That just bringing them back will go a long way to equaling the amount of new voters Obama has pulled in.

b1e9a8r5s
09-09-2008, 02:15 PM
Another Florida Poll out today, this one has McCain +5, the other one had even. So looks like Florida is relatively unchanged, at this point, from the conventions.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/fl/florida_mccain_vs_obama-418.html

b1e9a8r5s
09-09-2008, 05:18 PM
It looks like the national polls are trickling down to the state level as McCain is up 20 pts in North Carolina over Obama in the latest Poll.
http://abclocal.go.com/wtvd/story?section=news/politics&id=6380065

This puts North Carolina into the McCain column on RCP's map and makes the counts Obama 217-McCain 189-Toss Up 132 http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/

Now, North Carolina had been close, but it was still a spot that I always thought McCain should do well. I think the real suprising numbers are the women and independent that now support McCain, and this could be a problem for Obama if this is a nation wide trend.

"In 3 previous SurveyUSA NC tracking polls, McCain had led by 8, 5, and 4 points. Today: 20. McCain has gained ground in every demographic group. Among men, McCain led by 9 last month, 27 today. Among women, Obama led by 2 last month, trails by 12 today. McCain holds 9 of 10 Republican voters; Obama holds 3 of 4 Democratic voters; independents, who were split last month, break today crisply for McCain, where, in the blink of an eye, he is up by 25."

http://abclocal.go.com/wtvd/story?section=news/politics&id=6380065

ari1013
09-09-2008, 05:39 PM
It looks like the national polls are trickling down to the state level as McCain is up 20 pts in North Carolina over Obama in the latest Poll.
http://abclocal.go.com/wtvd/story?section=news/politics&id=6380065

This puts North Carolina into the McCain column on RCP's map and makes the counts Obama 217-McCain 189-Toss Up 132 http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/

Now, North Carolina had been close, but it was still a spot that I always thought McCain should do well. I think the real suprising numbers are the women and independent that now support McCain, and this could be a problem for Obama if this is a nation wide trend.

"In 3 previous SurveyUSA NC tracking polls, McCain had led by 8, 5, and 4 points. Today: 20. McCain has gained ground in every demographic group. Among men, McCain led by 9 last month, 27 today. Among women, Obama led by 2 last month, trails by 12 today. McCain holds 9 of 10 Republican voters; Obama holds 3 of 4 Democratic voters; independents, who were split last month, break today crisply for McCain, where, in the blink of an eye, he is up by 25."

http://abclocal.go.com/wtvd/story?section=news/politics&id=6380065
McCain's consolidating the states that he should have been winning anyway. But let's see what happens with Colorado, Virginia, Ohio, and New Hampshire -- which have been the closest races all year.

ari1013
09-09-2008, 05:40 PM
The polls in Mich (-1), Ohio (+7), Penn (-2), Wisconsin (-3) and even Washington (-4) were all significant improvements from the previous polling data.
Definitely, but nothing like the 20 points he's gaining in the Deep South.

SmthBluCitrus
09-10-2008, 12:13 AM
For you poll people


McCain ahead in national polls; Obama up in electoral votes

Sen. John McCain has inched ahead of Sen. Barack Obama in national polls, but the Democratic candidate holds a steady lead in the most recent Electoral College estimates.

In national surveys, McCain leads by 2 points, 47 percent to 45 percent, according to CNN's poll of polls released Monday night.

In the Electoral College standings, the most recent survey shows 243 electoral votes either safely in Obama's column or leaning his way. At this point, McCain can claim only 189.

CNN (http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/09/09/presidential.polls/index.html)

b1e9a8r5s
09-10-2008, 12:28 AM
For you poll people



CNN (http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/09/09/presidential.polls/index.html)

The electoral college projections are based on polls, so shouldn't they too be "distrusted"? That's your personal take right?

borat
09-10-2008, 02:10 AM
I still have hope in the United States. I still can't fathom how any intelligent, logical individual can support a McCain/Palin ticket. It baffles my mind. But as with the election of GW we all know that there are a bunch of morons out there.

Cubs Fan 4Ever
09-10-2008, 02:43 AM
I still have hope in the United States. I still can't fathom how any intelligent, logical individual can support a McCain/Palin ticket. It baffles my mind. But as with the election of GW we all know that there are a bunch of morons out there.

totally agree

SmthBluCitrus
09-10-2008, 09:19 AM
The electoral college projections are based on polls, so shouldn't they too be "distrusted"? That's your personal take right?

LoL -- I love how you're trying to call me out.

I just don't trust polls. That's it. I personally don't find the polls useful, especially seeing as how up and down they are. A week ago, Obama was up by seven points (on average). This week, McCain is up by three (on average). I don't buy that much liquidity in public opinion. I don't think ten people changed their opinion over the week.

No poll ever takes into account the undecideds -- 1/5th of whom won't make their decision until October 28th or later. And how many times did "pulse polls" get it wrong during the primary? Obama was supposed to win New Hampshire by ten points, and he ended up getting dominated in the state by Hillary. EXIT POLLING showed that Kerry/Edwards would take Bush/Cheney in 'o4 -- and Bush/Cheney won in a self-proclaimed "mandate."

I can tell you that nobody within the party gets excited about what the polls say (neither the GOP, nor the Dems). That may not mean much to you, but it's the truth. Polls are finicky and unstable, and ultimately unreliable. It's just always much better to look at real numbers -- voter registration, the amount of absentee ballots that each party has attained, total numbers of donors and the types of households those donors are coming from, etc ...

That's all. I'll still post polls in here that I find intriguing or that back up a specific "real numbers" claim (like the Iowa poll the other day -- based on party voter registration), but I'm just not a "poll" person.

b1e9a8r5s
09-10-2008, 05:24 PM
Some more polls that came out....

New Mexico McCain +2
Michigan Obama +4
Virginia McCain +4
Missouri McCain +5
New Hampshire Obama +6

Missouri appears to be headed towards McCain, and the last few polls in Virgina show McCain with a slight lead. The gap has been closing in Michigan, but it seems to still be in pretty good shape for Obama. New Hampshire seems to be favoring Obama as well. New Mexico is the interesing one. The last poll in New Mexico before this was Obama +13 (8/24-8/26). Now McCain is up 2 in the latest. New Mexico appears to be a true toss up at this point and will be interesting.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/latestpolls/index.html

Also, the interade "odds" have McCain favored 49.9 to 49.3. This is the first time I can recall that happening.

ari1013
09-10-2008, 06:25 PM
Some more polls that came out....

New Mexico McCain +2
Michigan Obama +4
Virginia McCain +4
Missouri McCain +5
New Hampshire Obama +6

Missouri appears to be headed towards McCain, and the last few polls in Virgina show McCain with a slight lead. The gap has been closing in Michigan, but it seems to still be in pretty good shape for Obama. New Hampshire seems to be favoring Obama as well. New Mexico is the interesing one. The last poll in New Mexico before this was Obama +13 (8/24-8/26). Now McCain is up 2 in the latest. New Mexico appears to be a true toss up at this point and will be interesting.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/latestpolls/index.html

Also, the interade "odds" have McCain favored 49.9 to 49.3. This is the first time I can recall that happening.
Wow. After the convention Obama's only down 5 in MO. He's got a shot here after all. It looks like NH's off the table for McCain now.

In general, the bounce gave Obama about 5-6 points in each of the close states. It looks like it gave McCain about the same advantage. So that means that any state where McCain has a lead of +6 or less is fair game. Any state where he's down by more than the MoE (i.e. 4 points or so) is pretty much an Obama state. Any state where McCain's up by more than 6 are in the bank for him.

With that said, we're looking at a situation that's roughly 242 - 220 for Obama with the rest as the battlegrounds.

b1e9a8r5s
09-11-2008, 10:51 AM
Two more interesting state polls. Two days after a poll came out showing McCain up 5 in Florida, a new one has him up 7. The RCP avg is now McCain +4 in Florida, 1 pt shy of putting the state into McCain's column.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/fl/florida_mccain_vs_obama-418.html

However, two days after an Ohio poll had McCain up 5 there. A new poll shows Obama up 5 there. The RCP avg is dead even.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/oh/ohio_mccain_vs_obama-400.html

b1e9a8r5s
09-11-2008, 11:25 AM
This is just a general question. Does anyone know if or where you can find the schedule of polls that are coming out? Like say for example, tommorrow we will have Ohio, Missouri, Florida and New Mexico along with 4 national polls. I find myself gong to RCP like ten times a day to see if anything new came out, and it would be easier if I knew the schedule.

b1e9a8r5s
09-11-2008, 11:28 AM
See, I just checked again, and there is a 2nd Florida poll out today and it has McCain +8. This is enough to put Florida in the McCain column according to RCP. This leaves their count at Obama 217 McCain 216 Toss Up 105. Wow.


http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/

JHG722
09-11-2008, 12:08 PM
I still have hope in the United States. I still can't fathom how any intelligent, logical individual can support a McCain/Palin ticket. It baffles my mind. But as with the election of GW we all know that there are a bunch of morons out there.

Thanks for calling me unintelligent and illogical =(

b1e9a8r5s
09-11-2008, 02:22 PM
There are so many polls coming out today that I think my head is going to explode trying to take it all in. In addition to the ones I had previously mentioned, there are two more from Ohio that show McCain up 1 and up 4. There is a Michigan poll that shows McCain up 1, the first time he has lead since May there, although obviously within the margin of error. There are two Colorado polls showing Obama up 1 and 3. I think that covers those I didn't get to before. But here's the link to all that I'm quoting.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/latestpolls/index.html

SLY WILLIAMS
09-11-2008, 02:44 PM
If Mccain can win this in this war tired time with a slow economy and with this unashamedly biased media it would really say something major in my opinion. It would be mainstream Americans telling the media they are not going to let the media elite run our country

Rochesta
09-11-2008, 04:43 PM
There are so many polls coming out today that I think my head is going to explode trying to take it all in. In addition to the ones I had previously mentioned, there are two more from Ohio that show McCain up 1 and up 4. There is a Michigan poll that shows McCain up 1, the first time he has lead since May there, although obviously within the margin of error. There are two Colorado polls showing Obama up 1 and 3. I think that covers those I didn't get to before. But here's the link to all that I'm quoting.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/latestpolls/index.html

I think we're starting to take this thing over BEYOND the convention boost. Its still early but my hunch is that we'll carry this to the debates.

Patsfreak1776
09-11-2008, 10:25 PM
Obama is really blowing it. For the last 2 weeks he has stood back on his heels and done a John Kerry while the GOP eviscerates him. He is being too nice and too laid back. He's going to lose, I've resigned myself to the fact that America can get hit over the head by the GOP for 8 years and not care.

BG7
09-11-2008, 11:06 PM
Obama is really blowing it. For the last 2 weeks he has stood back on his heels and done a John Kerry while the GOP eviscerates him. He is being too nice and too laid back. He's going to lose, I've resigned myself to the fact that America can get hit over the head by the GOP for 8 years and not care.

McCain has pulled ahead in the polls like this a few times over Obama this election cycle. I think Obama is just waiting until the first debate, and then it will be full on attack mode from there. From there, Hillary/Bill will be on the campaign trail everyday, and it will be on.

If Obama falters in the first debate though, he could dig himself a hole too deep.

Also, I think John Edwards really screwed Obama. I think Obama was going to pick Edwards, and that ticket was polling great together (Edwards gave Obama a Hillary like bounce (based on polls)). The other tickets with VP's added either left him even, or knocked him points it seemed. Edwards consistently put him in the 50-53 point range.

ari1013
09-12-2008, 11:30 AM
Care to elaborate on that "media" thing Sly? I think that's an absurd claim.

ari1013
09-12-2008, 11:32 AM
Actually I'm starting to get sick of the Obama attack ads here in MO. He's been bombarding the airwaves since his convention ended. I guess that's why McCain's sweeping the rest of the South by HUGE margins, and yes MO is still within the MoE. When the convention bounce wears off, MO should be very much in play.

I wouldn't worry too much about the polls right now.

SmthBluCitrus
09-12-2008, 11:37 AM
Also, I think John Edwards really screwed Obama. I think Obama was going to pick Edwards, and that ticket was polling great together (Edwards gave Obama a Hillary like bounce (based on polls)). The other tickets with VP's added either left him even, or knocked him points it seemed. Edwards consistently put him in the 50-53 point range.

I don't think so. And, this is coming from an Edwards supporter. John didn't bring anything "new" to the ticket the way Biden does (foreign policy). Scandal aside, Edwards would not have been the pick.

I still think (regardless of the personal life drama) that John Edwards will be in an Obama administration -- Poverty Czar, Attorney General. He will play a role in future politics.

b1e9a8r5s
09-12-2008, 11:48 AM
Actually I'm starting to get sick of the Obama attack ads here in MO. He's been bombarding the airwaves since his convention ended. I guess that's why McCain's sweeping the rest of the South by HUGE margins, and yes MO is still within the MoE. When the convention bounce wears off, MO should be very much in play.

I wouldn't worry too much about the polls right now.

MO is still within the MoE? Care to elaborate. The RCP avg is plus 7. Now, if your only talking about the recent poll which was the only one to come out in September (post Palin) it shows McCain up 5 and has a MoE of +/- 3.

b1e9a8r5s
09-12-2008, 11:51 AM
I don't think so. And, this is coming from an Edwards supporter. John didn't bring anything "new" to the ticket the way Biden does (foreign policy). Scandal aside, Edwards would not have been the pick.

I still think (regardless of the personal life drama) that John Edwards will be in an Obama administration -- Poverty Czar, Attorney General. He will play a role in future politics.

I think in the strictly political point of view, Edwards would have brought a lot of working class white voters with him, although to what effect the Palin pick would have had on them is debatable.

gcoll
09-12-2008, 11:55 AM
I still think (regardless of the personal life drama) that John Edwards will be in an Obama administration -- Poverty Czar, Attorney General. He will play a role in future politics.
I think that's wishful thinking, smthblu.

I know you like Edwards.....but no politician in their right mind would associate with him at this point.

SmthBluCitrus
09-12-2008, 11:58 AM
I don't know gcoll. A position like a "Poverty Czar" would be absolutely behind the scenes cabinet work. You're probably right on the AG piece, but don't overlook his political ability.

b1e9a8r5s
09-12-2008, 11:58 AM
Two polls have come out this week (one today, one on Tuesday) that show Washington suprisingly close. The poll today has Obama +2 (MoE 4.5) and on Tuesday had Obama +4 (MoE 3.9).

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/wa/washington_mccain_vs_obama-576.html

I wouldn't think that McCain would be able to win Washington, but the fact that it's this close speaks to the momentum McCain has gathered or to the problems Obama is having (whichever way you'd like to look at it).

ari1013
09-15-2008, 03:06 PM
Virginia back to Obama, but still within the MoE:


In an election for President of the United States in Virginia today, 09/15/08, 7 weeks till votes are counted, Democrat Barack Obama defeats Republican John McCain 50% to 46%, according to this latest SurveyUSA poll conducted for WDBJ-TV in Roanoke, WJLA-TV in Washington DC, WTVR-TV in Richmond, and WJHL-TV in the Tri-Cities. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll released one week ago, immediately following the Republican National Convention, Obama is up 3 points; McCain is down 3. The movement solidifies Virginia place as America's 2008 battleground.
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=c3b77d5f-0d1a-4f6e-b195-ae05355e8eb8

SmthBluCitrus
09-15-2008, 03:15 PM
So, barring something unforeseen, Iowa is a virtual lock for Obama based on state-wide polling ... :D


Iowa Poll: Obama opens double-digit lead

Democrat Barack Obama has established a double-digit lead over Republican John McCain in Iowa as the presidential race in this Midwestern battleground enters its critical fall stretch, according to The Des Moines Register's latest Iowa Poll.

The poll, taken in the wake of the parties' national conventions, shows Obama favored by 52 percent of Iowa likely voters, compared to 40 percent for McCain.

Des Moines Register (http://www.desmoinesregister.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080913/NEWS09/80913038)

"Key Traits" (http://www.desmoinesregister.com/assets/jpg/prestraits570.png)

ari1013
09-15-2008, 03:43 PM
MO is still within the MoE? Care to elaborate. The RCP avg is plus 7. Now, if your only talking about the recent poll which was the only one to come out in September (post Palin) it shows McCain up 5 and has a MoE of +/- 3.
Sure. Here's how the MoE works. The poll shows McCain 51 to Obama 46. In that case, with a +/- 3%, with 95% certainty, McCain could be as low as 48% or as high as 54%. Obama could be as low as 43% or as high as 49%.

As long as there is crossover at that level, the lead is statistically insignificant.

Of course, the MoE may not exactly be 3%.
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/missouri/election_2008_missouri_presidential_election

Rasmussen isn't reporting it.


EDIT: FYI, I found SUSA's MoE for 1459 voters in MO -- which was 2.6%.
CNN's MoE for 940 voters in MO was exactly 3.0%
So Rasmussen's 700 is likely to be slightly higher than 3%.

Suffice it to say, that any lead under 6% probably isn't safe. You could call it leaning one way or the other, but it's still a state that's up for grabs. Especially when you consider that he's only up 5% relative to the rest of the border-South states where he's up by double digits.

b1e9a8r5s
09-16-2008, 01:44 PM
Sure. Here's how the MoE works. The poll shows McCain 51 to Obama 46. In that case, with a +/- 3%, with 95% certainty, McCain could be as low as 48% or as high as 54%. Obama could be as low as 43% or as high as 49%.

As long as there is crossover at that level, the lead is statistically insignificant.

Of course, the MoE may not exactly be 3%.
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/missouri/election_2008_missouri_presidential_election

Rasmussen isn't reporting it.


EDIT: FYI, I found SUSA's MoE for 1459 voters in MO -- which was 2.6%.
CNN's MoE for 940 voters in MO was exactly 3.0%
So Rasmussen's 700 is likely to be slightly higher than 3%.

Suffice it to say, that any lead under 6% probably isn't safe. You could call it leaning one way or the other, but it's still a state that's up for grabs. Especially when you consider that he's only up 5% relative to the rest of the border-South states where he's up by double digits.

DUH! I had a brain fart on that one. I can picture my finite math teacher shaking his head in disgust.

b1e9a8r5s
09-16-2008, 01:53 PM
The latest RCP Map shows McCain up 227 Obama 207 and Toss Up 104. This is a result of Minnesotta being put in the Toss up category and Florida and Indiana being put in the McCain category.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/

ari1013
09-16-2008, 02:11 PM
The latest RCP Map shows McCain up 227 Obama 207 and Toss Up 104. This is a result of Minnesotta being put in the Toss up category and Florida and Indiana being put in the McCain category.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/
We're starting to see the polls come back down to Earth. As soon as they cycle out all the post-convention polls it looks like things should return back to normal -- where including leaners McCain has about 200 in the bank, Obama has about 247 in the bank, and the leftover states are Colorado, Florida, Michican, Nevada, Ohio, and Virginia.

Aside from the convention bounces, those 6 states are the only ones that really seem to be consistently within the MoE.

Sure a couple of leaners might also be in play, but it would probably be a waste of money for either candidate to spend money (places like MN, NM, PA, WA, and WI on Obama's end; and places like IN, MO, NC, MT, and ND. on McCain's end).

b1e9a8r5s
09-16-2008, 02:21 PM
We're starting to see the polls come back down to Earth. As soon as they cycle out all the post-convention polls it looks like things should return back to normal -- where including leaners McCain has about 200 in the bank, Obama has about 247 in the bank, and the leftover states are Colorado, Florida, Michican, Nevada, Ohio, and Virginia.

Aside from the convention bounces, those 6 states are the only ones that really seem to be consistently within the MoE.

Sure a couple of leaners might also be in play, but it would probably be a waste of money for either candidate to spend money (places like MN, NM, PA, WA, and WI on Obama's end; and places like IN, MO, NC, MT, and ND. on McCain's end).

You don't think it would be worth while for McCain to go after Michigan or PN? The polls post convention have had both very close. I know your saying that these will come back to the original margins, but I guess I'm not so sure of that. I was actually just in Michigan over the weekend and I saw a ton of McCain ads, only a couple Obama ads. He's definitely making a play for the state, weather or not he can do it, I don't know.

I think McCain has made some real gains, as even solid Obama states like New York, New Jersey and Washington have showed the margin decreasing significantly.

ari1013
09-16-2008, 02:29 PM
You don't think it would be worth while for McCain to go after Michigan or PN? The polls post convention have had both very close. I know your saying that these will come back to the original margins, but I guess I'm not so sure of that. I was actually just in Michigan over the weekend and I saw a ton of McCain ads, only a couple Obama ads. He's definitely making a play for the state, weather or not he can do it, I don't know.

I think McCain has made some real gains, as even solid Obama states like New York, New Jersey and Washington have showed the margin decreasing significantly.
I think it's very worthwhile for him to invest in Michigan. But I don't think Pennsylvania's worth it. Bush had twice the assets McCain had and he ran against a lousy candidate (Kerry) in a good economic year -- and he couldn't steal PA away from the Dems. If McCain buys an ad in Philly, that's essentially 2 less ads that he can run in Detroit, Las Vegas, or Cleveland. And several less ads that he can run in Southeastern VA, Colorado Springs, or the Florida Panhandle.

Give it one more week and wait for the new polls to come out. You'll see what I mean.

Doc Fluty
09-16-2008, 02:31 PM
the polls are the closest in CO... should mccain make a few stops?

or even palin..

a lot of hunters and outdoorsy type there that could identify with a snowmobile racer

Uncle Funster
09-16-2008, 03:33 PM
the polls are the closest in CO... should mccain make a few stops?

or even palin..

a lot of hunters and outdoorsy type there that could identify with a snowmobile racer

Interesting business: prepping recruits for military boot camp. Do you focus on the physical and mental aspects together or more on the physical? I only ask becuase I thought that the physical part of boot camp was relatively easy compared to the pysch reconditioning. It's all in the attitude...

Sorry for off topic.

SmthBluCitrus
09-16-2008, 05:42 PM
According to Chuck Todd's analysis -- the EV's are as close as they've ever been (or at least since April).

Obama is up 233 - 227. New Mexico has been put into the "Lean Obama" category. Florida has gone into the "Lean McCain." That leaves 78 EVs as toss-ups. Nevada, Colorado, Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio, Virginia, and New Hampshire.

I think you could probably take Wisconsin off there. They have a strong ground effort going on up there for Obama, and their out-registering the GOP handily. I've heard the same from some friends in DC about northern Virginia as well. It sounds like the Dems could take the state by somewhere between 60,000 and 120,000 votes (projected).

RCP still has Obama taking the election 273 - 265. And, this is coming out of the height of the RNC "bounce."

Yes ... I'm playing polls with you guys, now. They'll start to become more meaningful to me in the next few weeks.

Raider_Vet
09-16-2008, 05:55 PM
According to Chuck Todd's analysis -- the EV's are as close as they've ever been (or at least since April).

Obama is up 233 - 227. New Mexico has been put into the "Lean Obama" category. Florida has gone into the "Lean McCain." That leaves 78 EVs as toss-ups. Nevada, Colorado, Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio, Virginia, and New Hampshire.

I think you could probably take Wisconsin off there. They have a strong ground effort going on up there for Obama, and their out-registering the GOP handily. I've heard the same from some friends in DC about northern Virginia as well. It sounds like the Dems could take the state by somewhere between 60,000 and 120,000 votes (projected).

RCP still has Obama taking the election 273 - 265. And, this is coming out of the height of the RNC "bounce."

Yes ... I'm playing polls with you guys, now. They'll start to become more meaningful to me in the next few weeks.
how is ohio looking? last time I checked McCain was up. IMO this state will deside the election. it worried me he was up in ohio.

hoosiercubsfan
09-16-2008, 06:00 PM
how is Ohio looking? last time I checked McCain was up. IMO this state will decide the election. it worried me he was up in Ohio.

RCP average has McCain up 2.4 in Ohio. This was poling done between 9/5 and 9/14.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/oh/ohio_mccain_vs_obama-400.html

SmthBluCitrus
09-16-2008, 06:00 PM
Ohio is a toss up -- it's a virtual tie in the polling. As far as voter registration is going, I have no clue. I don't know any people on the ground in that state.

SmthBluCitrus
09-16-2008, 06:05 PM
Has anybody looked at the Virginia Senate race lately?? Mark Warner appears to be running away with this. He's well into double digits (23 points) in the polling. I think that's another sign of positive ground work in the state. I'd love to see the actual registration numbers.

This could be a case where the down-ticket candidate actually helps the Presidential.

Mark Warner (D) v. Jim Gilmore (R) -- RCP (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/senate/va/virginia_senate-537.html)

DenButsu
09-16-2008, 07:27 PM
Ohio is a toss up -- it's a virtual tie in the polling. As far as voter registration is going, I have no clue.

I have seen reports that various voter purge litigation has already been filed in several states. Let the game fixing begin... :sigh:

ari1013
09-16-2008, 07:31 PM
the polls are the closest in CO... should mccain make a few stops?

or even palin..

a lot of hunters and outdoorsy type there that could identify with a snowmobile racer
If he wants to win the election, he definitely should try to win CO -- essentially if Obama wins CO, he wins the race.

ari1013
09-16-2008, 07:32 PM
I have seen reports that various voter purge litigation has already been filed in several states. Let the game fixing begin... :sigh:
Luckily the SofS in Ohio is a Dem now and they're unlikely to accept that.

b1e9a8r5s
09-17-2008, 01:28 AM
If he wants to win the election, he definitely should try to win CO -- essentially if Obama wins CO, he wins the race.

I'm not sure I buy that. I think he has to win two of the 3 out west (NV, NW, CO) but not necessarily Colorado.

b1e9a8r5s
09-17-2008, 01:45 AM
Here's a pretty good piece about how the landscape has changed some since the conventions....

http://www.usnews.com/blogs/barone/2008/9/16/mccain-has-the-advantage-over-obama-in-post-convention-polls.html

cambovenzi
09-17-2008, 02:44 AM
NEW POLL
taken september 17th, 2:43AM.
100% say McCain.

total votes= 1:)

+/- 60% margin for error

ari1013
09-17-2008, 09:43 AM
I'm not sure I buy that. I think he has to win two of the 3 out west (NV, NW, CO) but not necessarily Colorado.
Colorado should be easier for him to win than New Mexico. If he wins New Mexico, he should have also already won Colorado (and Nevada).

That's why Obama campaigning in GA and NC make no sense. If he wins those states, he 99.99% likely also won VA. And with VA he wins the election. So why bother?

SmthBluCitrus
09-17-2008, 10:34 AM
Is the RNC bounce over?



Obama leads McCain by 2 points: Reuters poll

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Democrat Barack Obama has a 2-point lead in the U.S. presidential race on Republican John McCain, whose choice of Sarah Palin as his running mate helped shore up support for both candidates, according to a Reuters/Zogby poll released on Wednesday.

Obama leads McCain among likely voters by 47 percent to 45 percent, within the poll's 3.1 percent margin of error. He gained ground in the last month among independent and women voters and on the question of who could best manage the faltering U.S. economy.

Obama wiped out McCain's 5-point edge in a Reuters/Zogby poll taken in August before the nominating conventions, a sign the Arizona senator could be drifting back to earth from what other opinion polls showed was a post-convention surge.

Reuters (http://www.reuters.com/article/vcCandidateFeed7/idUSN1642854220080917?sp=true)

ari1013
09-17-2008, 12:53 PM
Is the RNC bounce over?



Reuters (http://www.reuters.com/article/vcCandidateFeed7/idUSN1642854220080917?sp=true)
On that note, for the daily polls:

Gallup has McCain up 1.
Rasmussen has McCain up 1.
Research 2000 has Obama up 4.
Diagio has Obama up 3.

Averaging those 4 out and it looks like Obama's now up 1.25%.

At the beginning of the week, McCain was up 0.25% among those 4 polls.

Know what that means? NOTHING. It's all way within the MoE

SmthBluCitrus
09-17-2008, 01:01 PM
Absolutely true.

RCP No Toss-ups map has shifted more in Obama's favor now, too ... 286 - 252 (Previously 273 - 265). Virginia moves into the Obama column.

RCP (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/?map=10)

b1e9a8r5s
09-17-2008, 01:10 PM
Absolutely true.

RCP No Toss-ups map has shifted more in Obama's favor now, too ... 286 - 252 (Previously 273 - 265). Virginia moves into the Obama column.

RCP (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/?map=10)

This is true. However the Virgina move is based on Obama having a .5 lead over 4 polls.

It does appear that the national polls are shiftting a little back towards Obama, although RCP is using 8 polls which average out to McCain +.6 still nationally.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.html

ari1013
09-17-2008, 02:34 PM
This is true. However the Virgina move is based on Obama having a .5 lead over 4 polls.

It does appear that the national polls are shiftting a little back towards Obama, although RCP is using 8 polls which average out to McCain +.6 still nationally.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.html
So can you see how silly it is to look at races that are that close?

The only thing that the polls can really show us are trends moving up or down, as well as what states are essentially locked-up (those with leads of about 6.5% or more).

b1e9a8r5s
09-17-2008, 04:22 PM
Well so much for Virginia being in the Obama column in the no toss up map. A new poll has McCain up 9 in Virginia. At this point, you would have to believe this is somewhat of an outlier, but interesting none the less.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/va/virginia_mccain_vs_obama-551.html

b1e9a8r5s
09-17-2008, 04:26 PM
CNN/Time just released a bunch of polls from battleground states.

Indiana - McCain +6
Wisconsin - Obama +3
Florida - Tie
Ohio - Obama +2
North Carolina McCain +1

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/latestpolls/index.html

ari1013
09-17-2008, 04:34 PM
Well so much for Virginia being in the Obama column in the no toss up map. A new poll has McCain up 9 in Virginia. At this point, you would have to believe this is somewhat of an outlier, but interesting none the less.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/va/virginia_mccain_vs_obama-551.html
Yeah I'd say so. That's the biggest lead anyone's had and it's 13 points away from the most recent poll showing a lead.

ari1013
09-17-2008, 04:35 PM
CNN/Time just released a bunch of polls from battleground states.

Indiana - McCain +6
Wisconsin - Obama +3
Florida - Tie
Ohio - Obama +2
North Carolina McCain +1

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/latestpolls/index.html
I can't believe Obama's really up in OH either. That's about 8 points off of the other polls I've seen. Then again, everything's in the MoE so who knows (except for that odd VA poll).

b1e9a8r5s
09-17-2008, 04:46 PM
I can't believe Obama's really up in OH either. That's about 8 points off of the other polls I've seen. Then again, everything's in the MoE so who knows (except for that odd VA poll).

Yeah, I would tend to agree. Everything coming out of Ohio had been McCain by about 3 or 4 for the past week. But either way, the state is obviously in play and one that McCain MUST win to have a chance, IMO.

b1e9a8r5s
09-17-2008, 05:11 PM
Rasmussen just came out with a few polls.

Oregon: Obama +4
Wisconsin: Obama +2
Rhode Island: Obama +19

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/latestpolls/index.html

cambovenzi
09-17-2008, 05:45 PM
no one liked my poll?
haha.

so what do you guys think?
is there clear favorite yet? or could still go either way?

DenButsu
09-17-2008, 08:29 PM
no one liked my poll?
haha.

so what do you guys think?
is there clear favorite yet? or could still go either way?

The lines are very squiggly now.

http://www.pollster.com/08USPresGEMvO.php

ari1013
09-17-2008, 10:36 PM
Yeah, I would tend to agree. Everything coming out of Ohio had been McCain by about 3 or 4 for the past week. But either way, the state is obviously in play and one that McCain MUST win to have a chance, IMO.
Oh yeah. If McCain loses Ohio, he seriously has no chance at all at winning the election.

ari1013
09-18-2008, 08:32 AM
I hate ARG, but they just put out a ton of polls:
AC M+24
AL M+22
AZ M+17
ID M+42
KS M+32
KY M+20
MS M+16
NC M+11
TX M+21
UT M+36
WY M+38

DC O+69
DE O+11
HI O+31
ME O+10
NY O+17
RI O+26

And now the close ones:
CO M+2
LA M+7
MO M+5
MT M+2
NV M+3
OH M+6
WV M+4

IL O+5 <---- See why I don't really buy into them much?
NM O+7


Some other interesting polls:
CNN FL O+4
CNN OH O+2
CNN IN M+5
CNN NC M+1
CNN WI O+4
PPP VA O+2
Ras WI O+2

b1e9a8r5s
09-18-2008, 12:32 PM
Where did you see the ARG polls? They aren't up on RCP.

b1e9a8r5s
09-18-2008, 12:36 PM
no one liked my poll?
haha.

so what do you guys think?
is there clear favorite yet? or could still go either way?

It's way to close to call. I'd still call Obama a slight (very slight) favorite, just because the political environment (economy, anti-Bush sentiment, etc.) but it could still go either way. I think the debates will be big.

DenButsu
09-18-2008, 12:40 PM
Poll numbers and margins of error aside, I think it's pretty clear that Obama has - for now, at least - reclaimed the mo'.

b1e9a8r5s
09-18-2008, 12:40 PM
3 Polls from battle ground states so far today...

Florida McCain +6 (consistent with the recent polling there)

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/fl/florida_mccain_vs_obama-418.html

New Mexico Obama +8 (there has been a wide range of results there)

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/nm/new_mexico_mccain_vs_obama-448.html

Indiana Obama +3 (this one might be an outlier, as McCain had been pretty consistently up 6)

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/in/indiana_mccain_vs_obama-604.html

hoosiercubsfan
09-18-2008, 12:58 PM
I saw that poll from IN and really doubt it will go Dem this year. The vast majority of the state is conservative with only the major population centers being somewhat liberal. So to see a swing that large I think it is just a bad set of polling data.

DenButsu
09-18-2008, 01:25 PM
I saw that poll from IN and really doubt it will go Dem this year. The vast majority of the state is conservative with only the major population centers being somewhat liberal. So to see a swing that large I think it is just a bad set of polling data.

Not that it especially means anything, but this article (http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/09/16/indiana.battleground/index.html) was on the front of cnn's politics page for a couple days recently, fwiw.

b1e9a8r5s
09-18-2008, 01:32 PM
The national journal just came out with 5 polls....

Ohio: McCain +1
Florida: Tie
Virginia: McCain +7
Colorado: Obama +1
New Mexico: Obama +7

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/latestpolls/index.html

The Virginia poll is interesting, as it lends some credance to the poll that showed McCain up 9 yesterday. In New Mexico, it appears that Obama is doing well with this +7 and +8 earlier in the day.

hoosiercubsfan
09-18-2008, 01:52 PM
Not that it especially means anything, but this article (http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/09/16/indiana.battleground/index.html) was on the front of cnn's politics page for a couple days recently, fwiw.

Oh I know he is trying he best to flip the state. He has opened campaign offices all over the state. Indiana is just a weird place though. It has usually gone with Dem Gov. and split congress but always goes R for president. Think because so much of the state is still rural. And the Dem. Gov. candidate is running a woeful campaign that won't help any.

ari1013
09-18-2008, 03:02 PM
Where did you see the ARG polls? They aren't up on RCP.
Straight from the source: http://www.americanresearchgroup.com/

Better to talk to the horse rather than the rider.

^ as I typed that, I realize that it doesn't really make as much sense in English. Hopefully you get what I meant :)

ari1013
09-18-2008, 03:06 PM
The national journal just came out with 5 polls....

Ohio: McCain +1
Florida: Tie
Virginia: McCain +7
Colorado: Obama +1
New Mexico: Obama +7

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/latestpolls/index.html

The Virginia poll is interesting, as it lends some credance to the poll that showed McCain up 9 yesterday. In New Mexico, it appears that Obama is doing well with this +7 and +8 earlier in the day.
National Journal's going to be a little to the right. Just as CNN's going to be a little to the left. That VA poll is about as likely as CNN's poll showing Obama up in OH.

If Rasmussen, Gallup, etc. show VA out of the MoE, then I'll buy into it. Until then, that just seems unlikely. Maybe they overpolled the South and underpolled the North. Who knows?

ari1013
09-20-2008, 01:06 PM
Funny that as the polls shift back to Obama, this thread dies off again.

To update things a little, here are today's daily-trackers:
Research 2000: Obama +6
Gallup: Obama +5
Diagio/Hotline: Obama +1
Rasmussen: Obama +1

Average = Obama +3.25%

Breaking it down a little further, for 9/14-9/20:
Obama median = 48.5%
McCain median = 44.0%

Nader median = 1.8%
Barr median = 1.2%
"Other" median = 1.0%

Personally, I think the third party numbers are WAY too high. The libertarians got about 0.4% last time around. And Nader got around 0.4% as well. In fact the combined third party vote was under 1.5% total.

SmthBluCitrus
09-20-2008, 01:38 PM
Funny that as the polls shift back to Obama, this thread dies off again.

To update things a little, here are today's daily-trackers:
Research 2000: Obama +6
Gallup: Obama +5
Diagio/Hotline: Obama +1
Rasmussen: Obama +1

Average = Obama +3.25%

Breaking it down a little further, for 9/14-9/20:
Obama median = 48.5%
McCain median = 44.0%

Nader median = 1.8%
Barr median = 1.2%
"Other" median = 1.0%

Personally, I think the third party numbers are WAY too high. The libertarians got about 0.4% last time around. And Nader got around 0.4% as well. In fact the combined third party vote was under 1.5% total.

Absolutely agree. They're saying that third party candidates are going to take 3%+ in Iowa ... and that is horribly overstated.

Did you see the Big10 polls that came out this week? Every other poll has Iowa breaking by double digits for Obama, and Big10 comes out and says that they're tied at 42%.

I did see a Michigan poll on CNN this morning that showed Obama up five. That's the largest I've seen him up there (obviously an early outlier), but ground campaign efforts there have been strong lately. And, with the economy coming back into play this week, I think the Detroit-Flint corridor is starting to shift.

ari1013
09-20-2008, 04:50 PM
Just realized I had yesterday's Gallup in there. Today's is 50 - 44 Obama -- which, for the first time ever, is a lead that's fully outside of the MoE.

ari1013
09-20-2008, 04:52 PM
Absolutely agree. They're saying that third party candidates are going to take 3%+ in Iowa ... and that is horribly overstated.

Did you see the Big10 polls that came out this week? Every other poll has Iowa breaking by double digits for Obama, and Big10 comes out and says that they're tied at 42%.

I did see a Michigan poll on CNN this morning that showed Obama up five. That's the largest I've seen him up there (obviously an early outlier), but ground campaign efforts there have been strong lately. And, with the economy coming back into play this week, I think the Detroit-Flint corridor is starting to shift.
Yeah I saw that. I'm not sure who's behind those polls -- they all looked odd. Some were way too pro-Obama, others were way too pro-McCain with regard to conventional wisdom.

MI's still close:
ARG poll on 9/18 puts Obama up 2 (but they suck as pollsters)
EPIC-MRA poll on 9/16 had Obama up 1 (I don't know much about them)

SmthBluCitrus
09-20-2008, 05:03 PM
Big10 uses only random survey raw numbers, and they don't weight them based on demographics. I guess the way they had weighted the Virginia poll made the assumption that only 10% of blacks were going to vote -- when 20% voted for Kerry in '04. You can bet your sweet patootie that we'll see greater than a 20% turnout in Virginia.

ari1013
09-20-2008, 05:05 PM
Big10 uses only random survey raw numbers, and they don't weight them based on demographics. I guess the way they had weighted the Virginia poll made the assumption that only 10% of blacks were going to vote -- when 20% voted for Kerry in '04. You can bet your sweet patootie that we'll see greater than a 20% turnout in Virginia.
Was that turnout or voter-share?

SmthBluCitrus
09-20-2008, 05:16 PM
Was that turnout or voter-share?

Good question ... oh, and I got the state wrong -- it was Pennsylvania. I should have known that beings it was only done in Big10 states. :o

I'm pretty sure it was turnout. That 2 in 10 came out ... not 20% of the total vote.

Edit: They also understated women, as well.

Check out the page from dailykos. It has a decent breakdown of the male/female break from '04 compared to what Big10 reported this week. I know DK is generally skewed. But, I was looking at the figures more than the page -- they link to 'o4 male/female break, but I'd like to see solid numbers from them on the minority vote.

Daily Kos (http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/9/18/193341/748/927/603189)

ari1013
09-20-2008, 05:33 PM
Good assessment from that guy -- except for the WI primaries stuff. I'm not sure how that's at all relevant since McCain had effectively locked up the race prior to that primary.

SmthBluCitrus
09-20-2008, 05:35 PM
Good assessment from that guy -- except for the WI primaries stuff. I'm not sure how that's at all relevant since McCain had effectively locked up the race prior to that primary.

I hadn't even noticed that. But, it wasn't the part I was paying attention to, either. Good catch.

guru
09-23-2008, 04:04 PM
http://www.pbs.org/now/polls/poll-435.html

This is a simple question, Do you think Palin is qualified to be Vice President of the United States. Right now the vote is 50% Yes and 48% No. Place your vote.

ari1013
09-23-2008, 04:08 PM
This is like one of those polls that used to show Ron Paul was going to take 80% of the vote.

WES445
09-23-2008, 05:06 PM
Ron Paul don't have a chance to win? Damn:rolleyes:

tomno00
09-23-2008, 07:24 PM
does it matter. no matter who is president or vice president, all we are going to do is complain. I dont know why anyone would want to be president.

Prior22
09-23-2008, 08:02 PM
does it matter. no matter who is president or vice president, all we are going to do is complain. I dont know why anyone would want to be president.

Lets just go to bed and sob in the covers. Whoever wins the election will just cause some segment of the population to complain. We should all forget that Sarah Palin holds the belief that the Iraq War is God's War and that we are destined to win. Its not as if that type of belief is dangerous or ignorant.

Your attitude is incredibly foolish and the frustrating part is that I'm sure millions of Americans share your same view. I suppose asking our nation's voters to stay informed on the key issues come election time is just too much to ask.

tomno00
09-23-2008, 08:25 PM
Lets just go to bed and sob in the covers. Whoever wins the election will just cause some segment of the population to complain. We should all forget that Sarah Palin holds the belief that the Iraq War is God's War and that we are destined to win. Its not as if that type of belief is dangerous or ignorant.

Your attitude is incredibly foolish and the frustrating part is that I'm sure millions of Americans share your same view. I suppose asking our nation's voters to stay informed on the key issues come election time is just too much to ask.

how is my thought process foolish? is what i said false?

Unfortunately the smartest people in this country will never run for president b/c ... a) of the pay cut and b) they dont want to be scrutinized......

And yes i think voters should stay informed on the key issues (i didnt know i diddnt imply that). I just simply said that no one will be completely satisfied and that the presidency is the most scrutinized position in the world.

DenButsu
09-23-2008, 09:05 PM
This poll is a farce. First Palin supporters got the word out to vote (and you can vote as many times as you want to) to run up the "qualified" numbers, then her opponents got wind of that effort and are getting the word out to do the same for "unqualified".

The outcome will signify nothing more than which side was able to get the most robots to push the most buttons the quickest.

americanoutlaw
09-23-2008, 09:09 PM
peoples still watch PBS??

DenButsu
09-23-2008, 09:16 PM
peoples still watch PBS??

Here in Japan, I usually only have access to CNN. But the other day, I was flipping through the channels and stumbled across some News Hour that was being broadcast on NHK (Japanese public channel) bilingually.

It was really strange and alien at first... I was like, what the hell is this? Minimal computer graphics... no music... no chit-chat banter between cosmetically modified newsroom news buddies... no big-breasted weather ladies... no touch screens... no stories about rodeo monkeys... oh no... not... it can't be... actual...

JOURNALISM!!! :speechless::speechless::speechless::speechless: :speechless:


Bash PBS all you want for being unwatched and boring. But hell, man - at least it's actually NEWS.

ink
09-23-2008, 09:33 PM
Here in Japan, I usually only have access to CNN. But the other day, I was flipping through the channels and stumbled across some News Hour that was being broadcast on NHK (Japanese public channel) bilingually.

It was really strange and alien at first... I was like, what the hell is this? Minimal computer graphics... no music... no chit-chat banter between cosmetically modified newsroom news buddies... no big-breasted weather ladies... no touch screens... no stories about rodeo monkeys... oh no... not... it can't be... actual...

JOURNALISM!!! :speechless::speechless::speechless::speechless: :speechless:


Bash PBS all you want for being unwatched and boring. But hell, man - at least it's actually NEWS.

There's actually a lot less spin there than on any other network, and they do run interviews and speeches in full. They don't "shape" the news nearly as much as the others. And Jim Lehrer is a really respected journalist. Solid credentials.

SmthBluCitrus
09-24-2008, 09:39 AM
Economic Fears Give Obama Clear Lead Over McCain in Poll
-- Washington Post

Turmoil in the financial industry and growing pessimism about the economy have altered the shape of the presidential race, giving Democratic nominee Barack Obama the first clear lead of the general-election campaign over Republican John McCain, according to the latest Washington Post-ABC News national poll.

More voters trust Obama to deal with the economy, and he currently has a big edge as the candidate who is more in tune with the economic problems Americans now face. He also has a double-digit advantage on handling the current problems on Wall Street, and as a result, there has been a rise in his overall support. The poll found that, among likely voters, Obama now leads McCain by 52 percent to 43 percent. Two weeks ago, in the days immediately following the Republican National Convention, the race was essentially even, with McCain at 49 percent and Obama at 47 percent.

As a point of comparison, neither of the last two Democratic nominees -- John F. Kerry in 2004 or Al Gore in 2000 -- recorded support above 50 percent in a pre-election poll by the Post and ABC News.

Washington Post (http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/09/23/AR2008092303667.html?hpid%3Dtopnews&sub=AR)

ari1013
09-24-2008, 09:43 AM
double digit turn around. wow...

More remarkable is that Obama's lead in CO has moved outside the MoE in a few polls, and he's taken a statistically insignificant lead in OH and FL in several other polls.

SmthBluCitrus
09-24-2008, 09:55 AM
That Washington Post poll is about how I see the election breaking , too. I think Obama gets somewhere between 52 - 53% nationally. It's a virtual modern election landslide.

ari1013
09-24-2008, 11:11 AM
That Washington Post poll is about how I see the election breaking , too. I think Obama gets somewhere between 52 - 53% nationally. It's a virtual modern election landslide.
If anyone wins by 5%, it is indeed a landslide these days. So Obama at 52.5%, McCain at 47% and others combining for another 1.5% qualifies.

With the availability of information on the internet, there's no way that any well-known national politician should ever fall below 45%. It's basically impossible.

DenButsu
09-24-2008, 11:22 AM
More remarkable is that Obama's lead in CO has moved outside the MoE in a few polls

:up:

We're gonna turn it blue

SmthBluCitrus
09-24-2008, 12:02 PM
:up:

We're gonna turn it blue

Absolutely we are. A lot of places are on the verge of being blue that haven't been in a long time.

On a side note: the McCain~Palin campaign is shutting down their field operation in Iowa. I had heard of some vacant offices around the state, so I drove by the one in Urbandale in the Des Moines metro. It was dark and quiet as could be.

DenButsu
09-24-2008, 11:28 PM
Poll: Obama Gains Ground in Swing States

Amid the mounting financial crisis and growing worries about the economy, Democratic presidential nominee Barack Obama is making gains in the key swing states of Colorado, Michigan and Pennsylvania, while his Republican rival John McCain is holding his own in Montana and West Virginia, according to a new TIME/CNN poll, conducted by Opinion Research Corp.

In Colorado, where the Democrats held their convention, Obama now enjoys the support of registered voters by a 51% to 45% margin; in late August McCain led that group by a difference of 49% to 44%. Among likely voters in the state, which TIME/CNN polled for the first time as part of this series of battleground polls, Obama leads by 51% to 47%.

In Michigan, the gap between McCain supporters and Obama supporters has also widened since the TIME/CNN poll in early September. Obama has gained two points among registered voters, now garnering 51% to McCain's 44%. As for likely voters, Obama leads by 51% to 46%.

Pennsylvania, Montana and West Virginia all show results that largely reflect their red-blue leanings of the 2004 election. Obama has expanded his late August four-point lead in Pennsylvania up to 52% to 43% among registered voters. He also currently leads among likely voters in the Keystone State by a healthy nine point margin, 53% to 44%.

McCain maintains a steady lead in Montana and West Virginia, states that George W. Bush easily won in the 2004 election (and which TIME/CNN had not previously polled). The new poll of likely voters puts McCain at 54% to 43% in Montana — where Obama had once hoped of scoring an upset — and by 50% to 46% in West Virginia.

Likely independent voters are proving key in Michigan, where they choose McCain by just 48% to 47%. Independents in West Virginia are leaning toward McCain 2-to-1, but Obama has them by anywhere from six to 13 points in Colorado, Pennsylvania and Montana. In all five states, Obama holds a significant advantage over McCain with likely self-identified moderate voters.time (http://www.time.com/time/politics/article/0,8599,1844108,00.html?cnn=yes)

marques724
09-24-2008, 11:51 PM
I was shocked to see how close it is in Florida. Out here in Va Obama has gotten a lot of previous unregistered black people and young people ready to hopefully turn this state blue.

ari1013
09-25-2008, 06:39 PM
Obama's up 2 in NC according to Rasmussen. That state is clearly still in play.

ink
09-25-2008, 06:51 PM
Obama might just earn a few Mississippi votes now too.

ari1013
09-25-2008, 08:53 PM
Obama might just earn a few Mississippi votes now too.
If nothing else, he'll help the Democrats knock out Roger Wicker down there.

DenButsu
09-26-2008, 12:16 AM
This one kinda made me say "wow":

AP (http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5jf8cJiWHNY_fh6Hh54COFGl-DXzgD93DVBNG0):


Poll: Obama leading McCain by 13 points in Michigan

THE POLL: Detroit Free Press/WDIV-TV poll, the presidential race in Michigan among likely voters. (17 electoral votes)

THE NUMBERS: Barack Obama 51 percent, John McCain 38 percent, Bob Barr 1 percent, undecided, 10 percent.

OF INTEREST: This is the second poll released in the past two days that gives Obama a double-digit lead in Michigan, a critical Midwestern battleground state. More voters say Obama's the best candidate to fix the country's economic problems, and the Illinois senator now appears to have an advantage in nearly every demographic group.

THE DETAILS: Conducted Sept. 22-24 by Selzer & Co. of Des Moines, Iowa, for the Detroit Free Press and WDIV-TV. It included telephone interviews with 602 likely voters and has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

DenButsu
09-26-2008, 12:22 PM
Ratings Say Obama Has Put Virginia, North Carolina and Indiana in Play
By Greg Giroux, CQ Staff

The Democrats lost the each of the past two presidential elections to Republican George W. Bush by the difference of the electoral votes of one big state. This prompted the campaign team for Democratic nominee Barack Obama to build a game plan that would put into play more states that typically vote Republican. Though the “bounce” in polls enjoyed by Republican candidate John McCain following his nominating convention early this month briefly called this strategy into doubt, Obama’s recent resurgence to a lead in most national polls — and gains in many state polls — has revived his party’s hopes of winning in states lost by Al Gore in 2000 and John Kerry in 2004.

CQ Politics, in fact, has changed its electoral vote ratings for three states — all longstanding Republican presidential strongholds — where Obama appears increasingly competitive. Virginia, which has 13 electoral votes, has been reclassified as No Clear Favorite, CQ Politics’ category for the most competitive races, after previously being rated Leans Republican. CQ Politics also changed the ratings of both Indiana, with 11 electoral votes, and North Carolina, with 15 electoral votes, to Leans Republican, a category for highly competitive races that sweeps in states where McCain has a slight edge, from the less competitive Republican Favored category.cq (http://www.cqpolitics.com/wmspage.cfm?docid=news-000002961652)

SmthBluCitrus
09-26-2008, 03:21 PM
RCP no toss-ups map (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/?map=10) jumped today. They moved Virginia into the Obama column. 286 - 252 for Obama.

Their national average is Obama +4. (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.html)

Not sure if you know of this site or not, ari. FiveThirtyEight (http://www.fivethirtyeight.com) is another site that is doing a lot of the same stuff as RCP. Not sure how reliable they are ... the candidate I'm advising showed me this site the other day, so I haven't really toured it. They have Obama up 310 - 228, with it being 74% likely that Obama wins the election.

Enjoy

ari1013
09-26-2008, 04:20 PM
Selzer overpolls 18-29 year olds in her samples. Most pollsters use 17% as their figure for young voters. She uses about 19.5%. Because of that, you're going to have to assume Obama's going to do about 2 points better in her polls than what's actually going on.

Rationale: Obama does about 80% better among young voters than the rest of the voter base.

SmthBluCitrus
09-26-2008, 04:22 PM
Who are you directing that towards?

ari1013
09-26-2008, 04:22 PM
RCP no toss-ups map (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/?map=10) jumped today. They moved Virginia into the Obama column. 286 - 252 for Obama.

Their national average is Obama +4. (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.html)

Not sure if you know of this site or not, ari. FiveThirtyEight (http://www.fivethirtyeight.com) is another site that is doing a lot of the same stuff as RCP. Not sure how reliable they are ... the candidate I'm advising showed me this site the other day, so I haven't really toured it. They have Obama up 310 - 228, with it being 74% likely that Obama wins the election.

Enjoy
Yeah I like reading Nate Silver. I've read his BP stuff, and I find his econometric model very interesting. It's flawed in the sense that EVs don't work the same way that a batting average works, but it's still interesting.

If you go by actual EVs instead of his projections, I'm pretty sure he's got Obama around 291 EVs right now. The 310 is based on weighted state-by-state numbers. That's where the flaw comes in.

ari1013
09-26-2008, 04:23 PM
Who are you directing that towards?
That Ann Selzer poll of MI. Sorry I forgot to quote it.

SmthBluCitrus
09-26-2008, 04:26 PM
That Ann Selzer poll of MI. Sorry I forgot to quote it.

Ah, OK -- thanks for the clarification. :)

DenButsu
09-26-2008, 08:19 PM
Rassmussen: Obama 50%, McCain 45% in Virginia (http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/virginia/election_2008_virginia_presidential_election)


And this article is about voter registration, not polling, but it more or less fits in this thread I think:

http://tpmelectioncentral.talkingpointsmemo.com/2008/09/in_multiple_key_battleground_s.php

ink
09-27-2008, 01:21 AM
Hispanics favour Obama: Survey

Fifty-five per cent of Hispanic voters, who constitute an important segment of the US electorate, prefer Democrat presidential hopeful Barack Obama to his Republican rival John McCain, EFE news agency reported on Saturday quoting a new poll.

The latest figures from a survey by the Pew Hispanic Center put Obama well ahead of McCain.

Hispanics are the largest and fastest-growing minority community in the US and their vote is highly important for both the candidates, not so much for their numerical strength - nine percent of the electorate - but for their concentration in key states like Florida, New Mexico, Nevada and Colorado.

About 50 percent of the Hispanics registered to vote considered Obama more qualified than his opponent to defend the rights of immigrants, compared with 12 percent who favoured McCain.

McCain was described by only 11 percent of the sample as capable of protecting the interest of Latinos who represent 15.4 percent of the US population.

While seven percent of Latinos said that the Republican Party best defends their interests, almost half the sample - 49 percent - preferred the Democratic Party in that regard.

Seventy-three percent of the sample condemned the criminal prosecution of undocumented immigrants working without permits, according to the survey.

http://www.hindustantimes.com/StoryPage/StoryPage.aspx?id=a409c5da-adbb-41c5-8326-0ea4864c9746&ParentID=5970e3af-a894-409e-879f-97731270233a&&Headline=Hispanics+favour+Obama%3a+Survey

SmthBluCitrus
09-27-2008, 01:57 PM
And this article is about voter registration, not polling, but it more or less fits in this thread I think:

http://tpmelectioncentral.talkingpointsmemo.com/2008/09/in_multiple_key_battleground_s.php

Thanks for the voter registration article from tpm. It's the same thing I've been harping about on here for a couple months ... voter registration matters. If you can actually get somebody committed to registering for a specific party -- or registering at all -- the likelihood that they vote goes up significantly. And, the more people that come out to vote, the more likely it is that Democrats win.

Woot

americaspasttim
09-27-2008, 02:01 PM
And, the more people that come out to vote, the more likely it is that Democrats win.

Woot
I think that is a little over confident. I believe there are alot of unregistered people out there who value the Constitution and will therefore register and vote for McCain. Don't be so sure that all unregistered voters are sheeple that will blindly follow the glowing halo that is Obama...

SmthBluCitrus
09-27-2008, 02:09 PM
I think that is a little over confident. I believe there are alot of unregistered people out there who value the Constitution and will therefore register and vote for McCain. Don't be so sure that all unregistered voters are sheeple that will blindly follow the glowing halo that is Obama...

Are you suggesting that people that vote Democrat don't "value the Constitution." Wait ... I wrote that before I saw that you wrote "sheeple." So, you've let your obvious "blindly following" bias shine through. Regardless ...

I'm not just talking about Obama, either. When people vote en masse, the vote generally relies on a populist theme -- which certainly benefits the Democrats. You can argue that point all you want but it's been studied. Why do you think Democrats function of voter registration drives ... and people on the conservative side of the aisle try and file lawsuits getting people to not vote. Explain that one.

americaspasttim
09-27-2008, 02:27 PM
Are you suggesting that people that vote Democrat don't "value the Constitution." Wait ... I wrote that before I saw that you wrote "sheeple." So, you've let your obvious "blindly following" bias shine through. Regardless ...
I'm suggesting that I believe a common trend of those who support Obama are people that either don't care or don't realize what Constitutional rights would be jeopardized.

I'm not just talking about Obama, either. When people vote en masse, the vote generally relies on a populist theme -- which certainly benefits the Democrats. Why's that?
You can argue that point all you want but it's been studied. It's been studied? whoopdy frikkin do. Lots of things have been studied, like why is the laziest person on my shift assigned to the area of most responsibility? I have studied that at length btw. Still blows my mind...
Why do you think Democrats function of voter registration drives ... and people on the conservative side of the aisle try and file lawsuits getting people to not vote. Explain that one.Are you referring to redrawing congressional districts in order to maximize one's likeliehood of reelection? I'm fairly certain that is a practice that transcends the aisle...

ink
09-27-2008, 02:38 PM
I'm suggesting that I believe a common trend of those who support Obama are people that either don't care or don't realize what Constitutional rights would be jeopardized.

Without exaggerating, what rights are you talking about and in what specific way would any policy that either of the candidates are suggesting jeopardize constitutional rights? Sounds like a stretch to me. :shrug:

btw, if we're talking about the discredited claims of the NRA, here's a link to a fact-checking site that clarifies Obama's position on 2nd amendment rights and gun control:


Obama lays out his basic stance on guns in a "Sportsmen" fact sheet and also in an "Urban Policy" paper on reducing gun violence. The NRA's claims find little support here.

Regarding a Constitutional right to guns, Obama says:

Obama, "Sportsmen": Barack Obama believes the Second Amendment creates an individual right, and he respects the constitutional rights of Americans to bear arms. He will protect the rights of hunters and other law-abiding Americans to purchase, own, transport, and use guns.

On the issue of urban policy, Obama says he favors "commonsense measures" to keep guns out of the hands of criminals and children, and that he would bring back the expired "assault weapon" ban and make it permanent:

Obama, "Urban Policy": Obama and Biden also favor commonsense measures that respect the Second Amendment rights of gun owners, while keeping guns away from children and from criminals who shouldn't have them. They support closing the gun show loophole and making guns in this country childproof. They also support making the expired federal Assault Weapons Ban permanent, as such weapons belong on foreign battlefields and not on our streets.

http://www.factcheck.org/elections-2008/nra_targets_obama.html

I'm not going to post the entire fact check, but it overwhelmingly debunks what the NRA is claiming.

Here's the "Pants on Fire (http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/statements/709/)" award, given to the NRA from another fact checking site on this issue.

SmthBluCitrus
09-27-2008, 03:19 PM
I'm suggesting that I believe a common trend of those who support Obama are people that either don't care or don't realize what Constitutional rights would be jeopardized. Why's that? It's been studied? whoopdy frikkin do. Lots of things have been studied, like why is the laziest person on my shift assigned to the area of most responsibility? I have studied that at length btw. Still blows my mind... Are you referring to redrawing congressional districts in order to maximize one's likeliehood of reelection? I'm fairly certain that is a practice that transcends the aisle...

Wow -- so Obama supporters are unconstitutional. Did not know that, thanks. :rolleyes:

Why are more people generally Democrats? Because, if you look at the dynamics of the population, and the specific demographic breakdown, it makes sense. In general, nine out of every black people vote for Democrats. However, only one out of every five eligible vote. The same thing (generally) holds true with white working class voters. five or six out of ten usually vote for the Democrats, but only three or four out of ten actually show up at the poll. And, they tend to make up the bulk of the population.

Bill Clinton did the best in '92 and '96 when he was able to draw out that support in the deep south and rust belt -- Al Gore wasn't as successful, and John Kerry certainly wasn't anywhere close. Obama, by comparison, has already shown that he's able to pull more people out of those demographics with his historical primary run. Hillary Clinton did it well, too.

But, why do they come out for Democrats? Usually, because Democrats are seen as the defenders of the domestic production/industry sector of our work force. That's why they almost always pull union support. Minus the police union -- but that's a different story altogether (even though Democrats usually fund the police more ...).

As for your last point ... no, not gerrymandering. Both sides are guilty of that -- look at Republicans in Texas or Democrats in areas of California. But, no ... not gerrymandering.

I'm talking about voter registration drives. The Democrats spend a lot of time, money, effort, and manpower walking door-to-door canvassing to "Get Out the Vote" (GOTV -- it's actually a term in the institution of the Democratic Party ... we go through classes on GOTV; I've been through three of them -- I could teach the damn thing). We (yes, I say "we") not only walk d2d, but we set ourselves up at fairs, outside grocery stores, at farmers markets, during community festivals ... anywhere that we can set up a booth or talk to people in order to get more people registered. And, it's not only canvassers. It's candidates, and field organizers , and directors ... it doesn't matter if people say they're going to vote for the Democrat or the Republican, either. We register them.

Know who we never see at these events? Republicans. Know why? Because, they don't want the same thing. They don't want to get as many people out to vote. And, why do you think that is? Because of the above-mentioned reasons.

The more people vote ... the more Democrats win.

americaspasttim
09-27-2008, 03:45 PM
Wow -- so Obama supporters are unconstitutional. Did not know that, thanks. :rolleyes: That kind of nonsense is unwarranted, unnecessary, and unacceptable.


Why are more people generally Democrats? Because, if you look at the dynamics of the population, and the specific demographic breakdown, it makes sense. In general, nine out of every black people vote for Democrats. However, only one out of every five eligible vote. The same thing (generally) holds true with white working class voters. five or six out of ten usually vote for the Democrats, but only three or four out of ten actually show up at the poll. And, they tend to make up the bulk of the population.

Bill Clinton did the best in '92 and '96 when he was able to draw out that support in the deep south and rust belt -- Al Gore wasn't as successful, and John Kerry certainly wasn't anywhere close. Obama, by comparison, has already shown that he's able to pull more people out of those demographics with his historical primary run. Hillary Clinton did it well, too.

But, why do they come out for Democrats? Usually, because Democrats are seen as the defenders of the domestic production/industry sector of our work force. That's why they almost always pull union support. Minus the police union -- but that's a different story altogether (even though Democrats usually fund the police more ...).

As for your last point ... no, not gerrymandering. Both sides are guilty of that -- look at Republicans in Texas or Democrats in areas of California. But, no ... not gerrymandering.

I'm talking about voter registration drives. The Democrats spend a lot of time, money, effort, and manpower walking door-to-door canvassing to "Get Out the Vote" (GOTV -- it's actually a term in the institution of the Democratic Party ... we go through classes on GOTV; I've been through three of them -- I could teach the damn thing). We (yes, I say "we") not only walk d2d, but we set ourselves up at fairs, outside grocery stores, at farmers markets, during community festivals ... anywhere that we can set up a booth or talk to people in order to get more people registered. And, it's not only canvassers. It's candidates, and field organizers , and directors ... it doesn't matter if people say they're going to vote for the Democrat or the Republican, either. We register them.

Know who we never see at these events? Republicans. Know why? Because, they don't want the same thing. They don't want to get as many people out to vote. And, why do you think that is? Because of the above-mentioned reasons.

The more people vote ... the more Democrats win.

2004 had the highest total number of voters in history, and the highest percentage of turnout since 1968. How did that work for the Democrats? Which party won in 1968? Basically the Democrats love to believe they are champions for the working person, and Republicans are evil white Lords of the land not willing to trouble themselves with us peasants, but that is not the perception of alot of people. BTW, I'm still searching for an answer to my lazy person on my shift issue. It's been keeping me up all day and putting me in a bad mood. In closing, I would like to sincerely express my gratitude to you for your service to the public in reaching out and impressing on people the need to do their civic duty. Keep up the good work...:clap:

CubsGirl
09-27-2008, 03:49 PM
That kind of nonsense is unwarranted, unnecessary, and unacceptable.

2004 had the highest total number of voters in history, and the highest percentage of turnout since 1968. How did that work for the Democrats? Which party won in 1968? Basically the Democrats love to believe they are champions for the working person, and Republicans are evil white Lords of the land not willing to trouble themselves with us peasants, but that is not the perception of alot of people. BTW, I'm still searching for an answer to my lazy person on my shift issue. It's been keeping me up all day and putting me in a bad mood. In closing, I would like to sincerely express my gratitude to you for your service to the public in reaching out and impressing on people the need to do their civic duty. Keep up the good work...:clap:

:laugh2:

SmthBluCitrus
09-27-2008, 04:04 PM
That kind of nonsense is unwarranted, unnecessary, and unacceptable.

You're the one that suggested that Obama supporters "either don't care or don't realize what Constitutional rights would be jeopardized" in an Obama Presidency. But, the simple fact of the matter is -- it's a Republican administration that has continued to expand the oversight of our basic constitutional liberties with things such as FISA and PATRIOT I&II.


2004 had the highest total number of voters in history, and the highest percentage of turnout since 1968. How did that work for the Democrats? Which party won in 1968? Basically the Democrats love to believe they are champions for the working person, and Republicans are evil white Lords of the land not willing to trouble themselves with us peasants, but that is not the perception of alot of people. BTW, I'm still searching for an answer to my lazy person on my shift issue. It's been keeping me up all day and putting me in a bad mood. In closing, I would like to sincerely express my gratitude to you for your service to the public in reaching out and impressing on people the need to do their civic duty. Keep up the good work...:clap:

People also tend to believe that Democrats will do more to protect the working class/working people. Again, I'm going to point to union support. I didn't claim that Democrats are actually "champions of the working person" though. But, it is the perception.

As for 2004 -- it's absolutely true. But, if you look at the breakdown of the vote that did come out, it was from Kerry~Edwards overperforming in typically blue state. New York, California, Washington, etc ... while the Republicans overperformed in the deep south. And, even though Bush dominated the popular vote ... it still came down to one state -- Ohio. If Ohio had gone the other way, it would've been a different story entirely.

We just nominated a crappy candidate. John Kerry sucked. Sure, that's not a professional term ... but John Kerry sucked. I was not a Kerry supporter, but because I had worked for the Edwards for President campaign, I did a lot of work by proxy in Iowa getting people registered, going d2d to talk to people. They said that if the ticket had been reversed (Edwards~Kerry) ... they would've voted for the Dems. Iowa loves John Edwards ... and John Edwards loves Iowa.

Thanks though. I appreciate the kind words. I think voting is incredibly important. It can only help the democratic process. And, when people decide that they're going to vote, they tend to inform themselves about (at least) a couple issues -- things that mean more to them. A little bit can go a long way in attaining an informed electorate. Ahh ... hopeless idealism. :D

Oh, and I can't explain why the lazy person on your shift gets more responsibility. Maybe they're related to somebody in charge ... or they're diddling the supervisor. :shrug:

ari1013
09-29-2008, 09:46 AM
Bringing this back on topic.

The four big daily polls today show:
Diagio/Hotline: Obama 47 - McCain 42
Gallup: Obama 50 - McCain 42
Rasmussen: Obama 50 - McCain 44
Research 2000: Obama 51 - McCain 42

The daily polls give the most recent results using a three day rolling average. All of these polls, therefore, are entirely from the day of the debate onward.

Crunching the numbers for a bit we see Obama sitting at 49.5%, McCain at 42.5%. Giving another 1.5% to the third parties leaves us with 6.5% undecided.

Comparing this with last week, Obama was at 48%, McCain was at 44%, and with third parties still at 1.5% that left 6.5% undecided.

Most likely, a few McCain voters left McCain and went undecided, while an equal number of undecideds flocked towards Obama.

This 7-point lead is well outside of the MoE of each of these samples (their MoE's range between 2%-3.2%), thus showing Obama is holding a significant lead at this time.

One would assume that the dissatisfied McCain voters will all go back to McCain in the end, bringing McCain back to 44%. The remaining 5% of undecideds likely will break 50/50 -- as they did in the last two presidential elections. That puts the post-debate estimate for the election at Obama 52%, McCain 46.5%, Others 1.5%.

PHX-SOXFAN
09-29-2008, 11:23 AM
I think that is a little over confident. I believe there are alot of unregistered people out there who value the Constitution and will therefore register and vote for McCain. Don't be so sure that all unregistered voters are sheeple that will blindly follow the glowing halo that is Obama...

I read this a few days ago, and still can't stop laughing at the absurdity of it. A constitutional lawyer doesn't value the constitution?:confused:

This is one of the most ridiculous things I've read on here in a while. To think that McCain standing behind the GW plans like patriot act, fisa, etc is a person who values the constitution more, or is even as close to as knowledgeable or educated on the subject matter than obama is laughable

ari1013
09-29-2008, 12:32 PM
As I said... back on topic!

Looking at RCP's Electoral Map (which I still think is flawed by the use of old data), Obama's up to 228 with McCain down to 163. Proof of the flaw -- look at PA. They have Obama up 4.4%. However, they're carrying that National Journal poll from September 18th in their average. If you drop that poll out, Obama's lead jumps to 5.4% -- and out of the toss-up category. Wisconsin goes all the way back to the 13th! Dropping out those old polls, Obama's at +6%. The rest of the states really are too close to call IMO.

I'd have it at 259 Obama - 163 McCain right now.

In the case of no toss-ups they have it:
Obama 301
McCain 237

ink
09-29-2008, 12:33 PM
"Obama was the only national leader or institution with a net positive rating on handling the Wall Street crisis in a USA TODAY/Gallup Poll taken Friday and Saturday -- 46% approved, 43% disapproved. For McCain, the numbers were 37% approve, 58% disapprove. Democratic and GOP congressional leaders, Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson and President Bush also did poorly."

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/09/29/AR2008092900603_4.html

ink
09-29-2008, 12:47 PM
McCain Losing Ground With Older Voters: Campaign Notebook
By Bob Drummond and Joe Sobczyk

Sept. 27 (Bloomberg) -- John McCain is losing ground with older Americans, a group that consistently has high turnout at the voting booth.

Barack Obama jumped to a 46-42 percent lead among those 65 and older in the latest Bloomberg/Los Angeles Times poll. That's an 18 percentage-point swing since mid-August, when the poll showed McCain with a 50-36 percent advantage.

People 65 and older are among Americans most concerned about financial upheaval, according to the poll, taken Sept 19-22. Only 11 percent say they're better off than they were four years ago, compared with 24 percent of all respondents; 8 percent of the older Americans say the country is moving in the right direction, compared with 13 percent overall.

Obama also has the advantage with younger voters. The Illinois senator leads 52-41 percent among Americans between 18 and 44 years old. Those in the middle, ages 45-64, are going for McCain 47 percent to 42 percent.

While McCain gets a majority of Protestants, 51 percent to 41 percent, Obama wins Catholics 47 percent to 35 percent for McCain.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=email_en&refer=&sid=an8WDB6dqvfQ

DenButsu
09-29-2008, 11:59 PM
politicalwire.com (http://politicalwire.com/archives/2008/09/29/ppp_poll_obama_moves_ahead_in_north_carolina.html) :

PPP Poll: Obama Moves Ahead in North Carolina
A new Public Policy Polling survey in North Carolina finds Sen. Barack Obama has taken the lead over Sen. John McCain for the first time, 47% to 45%.

Key finding: "Over the last year there's been a strong relationship between the number of North Carolinians listing the economy as their biggest concern, and Obama's standing in the polls. In January when just 39% of voters said it was their biggest issue John McCain led by 14 points. In August with it up to 48% Obama trailed by just three. Last week with 58% listing it number one the race was tied, and now with the number up to a record 64% Obama has taken a small lead. He is up 55-38 among respondents citing the economy as their main concern."

Also not helping McCain: A dramatic decline (http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2008/09/declining-popularity-of-sarah-palin.html) in approval of running mate Sarah Palin.

The link in the last sentence goes to this:


Monday, September 29, 2008
The Declining Popularity of Sarah Palin


Date Palin Favorability
9/9 42/34
9/28 38/41

The Sarah Palin pick has not worn well with North Carolina voters, as her net favorability has gone from +8 to -3 in the course of three weeks, for a negative shift of 11 points.

She is particularly unpopular with independents in North Carolina. 46% of them now say her selection makes them less likely to vote for John McCain compared to just 36% who say her spot on the ticket makes them more inclined to support him. Even among Republicans enthusiasm for her has dropped from 75% to 67%.

The economic troubles are the main thing driving Barack Obama's movement in North Carolina, but Sarah Palin is not doing John McCain any favors here.

Last week PPP found a similar 12 point drop in Palin's favorability in Colorado.

ari1013
09-30-2008, 01:12 PM
RCP just moved PA back into Obama's column. Wisconsin's next.

{º¿º}
10-01-2008, 02:48 AM
Latest straw poll by AOL with nearly half a million respondents. McCain is winning every state. LMAO

http://news.aol.com/political-machine/2008/09/25/aol-straw-poll-sept-25-oct-2

Anyway, I'll step back now and giggle in the background as I watch the Obamabots desperately try to make sense of it, gotta be a conspiracy; must be all those Ron Paul voters again manipulating the vote again. Or is it all those Hillary voters flocking to McCain since he put a female on his ticket. Oooh no!!! :D

DenButsu
10-01-2008, 04:40 AM
That straw poll is the same crock that the PBS poll was... you wanna talk about 'bots, all those numbers are are dittoheads getting the straw vote out.

Meanwhile, back in reality...

http://www.pollster.com/polls/us/08-us-pres-ge-mvo.php
^nice clear tracking map :cool:

pollster.com's poll average has Obama at 48.9, McCain at 43.9


Pollster Dates N/Pop McCain Obama
DailyKos.com (D)/Research 2000 9/27-29/08 1100 LV 41 51
Rasmussen 9/27-29/08 3000 LV 45 51
Diageo/Hotline 9/27-29/08 901 RV 41 47
ARG 9/27-29/08 1200 LV 45 49
Gallup 9/27-29/08 2729 RV 43 49
ABC/Post 9/27-29/08 916 LV 46 50
GWU (Lake/Tarrance) 9/22-28/08 1000 LV 48 46
Zogby (Internet) 9/26-27/08 2102 LV 46 47

And CNN's poll of polls (http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/09/30/cnn-poll-of-polls-debate-changed-nothing/) confirms a nearly identical picture:


Nearly 60 million Americans tuned in to the first presidential debate between Barack Obama and John McCain last Friday, but national polls released this week suggest the square-off did little to change the dynamics of the race.

The new polls are bad news for McCain, who with only five weeks until Election Day is quickly running out of opportunities to shake up the race for the White House.

In a new CNN poll of polls consisting of surveys conducted entirely after the first presidential debate, Obama holds a 5-point lead over McCain, 48-43 percent. That's exactly where the race stood immediately before the two candidates kicked off the presidential debate season in Oxford, Mississippi, four days ago.

“The ruling on last Friday’s presidential debate is in, and it’s a split decision,” said CNN Senior Political Researcher Alan Silverleib. “The debate changed nothing. Obama’s supporters aren’t shifting to McCain, McCain’s supporters aren’t shifting to Obama, and undecided voters are still undecided.

But the poll numbers come even as surveys conducted by several media organizations immediately after the debate showed most viewers thought Obama had won. However the polls also showed the debate viewers appeared to be more Democratic than the overall population. (Related: CNN analysts grade McCain, Obama debate performances)

"Unfortunately for McCain, a continuation of the status quo favors Obama," Silverleib also said. "The pressure is increasing on McCain to find some way to change the fundamental dynamics of this race. He can’t afford to walk away with a tie in the remaining debates.”

McCain and Obama next square off October 7 in a debate that features a town-hall format — a set up that McCain favors. VP candidates Sarah Palin and Joe Biden have their only debate on Thursday.

Doc Fluty
10-01-2008, 05:54 AM
a question...

with the recent polls of democrats who wont vote for a black dude and other ignorant racists.. do you guys think the larger the Obama perceived lead the more the racist will turn out to vote against him?

what was the poll? 34% of democrats wont for for a negro?

out of 50,000,000 voters that turns out to be around 17 million DEMOCRATS that wont for for him... that could be a big prob when the last election was decided by a few thousand votes

SmthBluCitrus
10-01-2008, 10:06 AM
Polls: Obama leads in critical trio of states
By LIZ SIDOTI, Associated Press Writer

WASHINGTON - Recently trailing or tied, Democrat Barack Obama now leads Republican John McCain in a trio of the most critical, vote-rich states five weeks before the election, according to presidential poll results released Wednesday.

The Democrat's support jumped to 50 percent or above in Ohio, Florida and Pennsylvania in Quinnipiac University surveys taken during the weekend — after the opening presidential debate and during Monday's dramatic stock market plunge as the House rejected a $700 billion financial bailout plan.

Combined, these states offer 68 of the 270 electoral votes needed for victory on Election Day, Nov. 4.

Yahoo! News (http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20081001/ap_on_el_pr/campaign_battlegrounds_1)

SmthBluCitrus
10-01-2008, 10:09 AM
The RCP no toss-ups map (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/?map=10) has really shifted in the past week. Right now, it's showing Obama up 348 - 190. Florida and Ohio have moved in favor of Obama. I would say that Obama got a nice bump out of the debate.

We're getting close. Just about a month out.

ari1013
10-01-2008, 11:38 AM
a question...

with the recent polls of democrats who wont vote for a black dude and other ignorant racists.. do you guys think the larger the Obama perceived lead the more the racist will turn out to vote against him?

what was the poll? 34% of democrats wont for for a negro?

out of 50,000,000 voters that turns out to be around 17 million DEMOCRATS that wont for for him... that could be a big prob when the last election was decided by a few thousand votes
Do you have a link to that poll?

PHX-SOXFAN
10-01-2008, 12:03 PM
a question...

with the recent polls of democrats who wont vote for a black dude and other ignorant racists.. do you guys think the larger the Obama perceived lead the more the racist will turn out to vote against him?

what was the poll? 34% of democrats wont for for a negro?

out of 50,000,000 voters that turns out to be around 17 million DEMOCRATS that wont for for him... that could be a big prob when the last election was decided by a few thousand votes

I think it was 5%, and do you really use the word negro regularly?

Doc Fluty
10-01-2008, 10:10 PM
first off.. i dont think Negro qualifies as a bad word.. stop being sensitive..

and dont you think if obama lost even just 5% that the election could be lost there?

the poll was done over the computer and as the article explains, a place where people are more likely to tell there true thoughts and intentions other than talking to someone on the phone

I pasted the parts of the article that are relative to my question... the rest can be seen if you follow the link


Deep-seated racial misgivings could cost Barack Obama the White House if the election is close, according to an AP-Yahoo News poll that found one-third of white Democrats harbor negative views toward blacks — many calling them "lazy," "violent" or responsible for their own troubles.

The poll, conducted with Stanford University, suggests that the percentage of voters who may turn away from Obama because of his race could easily be larger than the final difference between the candidates in 2004 — about two and one-half percentage points.

But Obama faces this: 40 percent of all white Americans hold at least a partly negative view toward blacks, and that includes many Democrats and independents.

More than a third of all white Democrats and independents — voters Obama can't win the White House without — agreed with at least one negative adjective about blacks, according to the survey, and they are significantly less likely to vote for Obama than those who don't have such views.

Lots of Republicans harbor prejudices, too, but the survey found they weren't voting against Obama because of his race. Most Republicans wouldn't vote for any Democrat for president — white, black or brown.

Three in 10 of those Democrats who don't trust Obama's change-making credentials say they plan to vote for McCain.

Statistical models derived from the poll suggest that Obama's support would be as much as 6 percentage points higher if there were no white racial prejudice.

The AP-Yahoo poll used the unique methodology of Knowledge Networks, a Menlo Park, Calif., firm that interviews people online after randomly selecting and screening them over telephone. Numerous studies have shown that people are more likely to report embarrassing behavior and unpopular opinions when answering questions on a computer rather than talking to a stranger.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/26803840/

DenButsu
10-01-2008, 10:21 PM
DF, here's all I'll say about this:

1. We won't really know how much there is to this until election day, when we see how many Democratic voters did not chose Obama. And even then, with the PUMAs and everything, those numbers will be far from conclusive.

2. Yes, using the word "negro" in the way you used it is a racist use of the word.

3. It's a sad day in America and a pathetic day for the GOP when, at the end of the day, all they have left to pin their hopes on is racism.

Doc Fluty
10-01-2008, 10:29 PM
Den...so i say


"what was the poll? 34% of democrats wont for for a negro? "

and i am using the word in a racist way? so is the only correct way to address them is as black or African American? this is the part of being politically correct that i think keeps racism alive.. having to tip toe around whats acceptable and whats inappropriate 24/7

throwing the word racism around in my view actually causes racism

other than that the hole point of me bringing it up wasnt that i was pinning my hope on winning to racism.. the question was..

do you guys think the larger the Obama perceived lead the more the racist will turn out to vote against him?

its a question on your thoughts.. i made no assumptions that mccain would win or any other ridiculous claim.. it was just a question

and Den just by you ignoring that the polls show over 1/3 of democrats having a unfavorable view of blacks doesn't mean they wont show up at the polls if it looks like Obama will in fact win and there is a chance of them stopping it.

DenButsu
10-01-2008, 10:45 PM
Yes, Doc Fluty, the exact sense in which you used the word "negro" is a racist one. I'm not going to write an essay on why. But the simple version is that it's not the word itself, it's how you used it.

Doc Fluty
10-01-2008, 11:00 PM
well i guess thats your POV

ari1013
10-02-2008, 11:39 AM
Back to the polls:

Today's Nationals:

R2K 51 - 40
Ras 51 - 44
D/H 47 - 42
Gallup 48 - 43
Time 50 - 43
Pew 49 - 43
AP 48 - 43
CBS 50 - 41
Battleground 49 - 44

Obama's around 49.22%
McCain's around 42.44%

Still looking like a good lead for Obama.

ari1013
10-02-2008, 11:56 AM
RCP gave WI back to Obama as I predicted would happen once they cycled out the 3 week old polls. MN's next -- about to jump to 5.6% in the next day or two.

Once that gets added in, we're looking at 269 - 163 in the bank for each candidate. And an astounding 353 - 185 without tossups.

Essentially this is about as good as Obama can hope for. Sure he could also turn MO, IN, and NE-02 which would bring him up to 376 EVs, but that would probably require an 8-10 point national % win, which is essentially impossible.

DenButsu
10-02-2008, 01:27 PM
ObamaPollSplosion: He Breaks 50 Everywhere

You sort of need a ticker to follow it all.... CNN/ORC Florida: Obama at 54% among registered voters (really)...Obama up by four among likely voters in Nevada...up by double digits in Minnesota...tied in Missouri...nine points ahead among likely voters in Virginia...polls from Time...NBC News/WSJ/MySpace......the AP...

The same Democrats who three weeks ago were chanting to themselves "polls reflect the daily news, polls reflect the daily news" are now enthusing about a blitz of state polls showing Barack Obama up everywhere, above 50 percent everywhere and even nationally.

I'm getting lots of e-mails speculating about the 2012 frontrunner for Republicans. (I think it's Huckabee, but that's for tomorrow.)

The trend lines are positive for Obama, and, of course, one would expect Democrats to cheer the good news. (McCain's doing fine in..Oklahoma.)

Maybe this is something the polling experts can tell us, but have the polls ever swung this much, this late, and NOT swung back? (And even if they've never done this before, is there anything fundamental about the nature of public opinion that prevents them from swinging back?)ambinder (http://marcambinder.theatlantic.com/archives/2008/10/obamapollsplosion_he_breaks_50.php)

DenButsu
10-02-2008, 01:34 PM
FiveThirtyEight is challenging Real Clear Politics' credibility (http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/09/real-credibility-problems.html)

ari1013
10-02-2008, 02:32 PM
Speaking of 2012, Ambinder thinks it's Huckabee. I think it's going to be Newt. I think he sabotaged McCain's efforts by whipping up nay votes in the House last weekend. Newt's already got exploratory committees in NH and IA.

A Democratic landslide could prompt many Republicans to think back to 1994 and how Newt had a great plan of action. They'll probably forget how it crashed and burned shortly after that. And of course the face of that movement was Newt.

Raider_Vet
10-02-2008, 04:14 PM
DF, here's all I'll say about this:

1. We won't really know how much there is to this until election day, when we see how many Democratic voters did not chose Obama. And even then, with the PUMAs and everything, those numbers will be far from conclusive.

2. Yes, using the word "negro" in the way you used it is a racist use of the word.

3. It's a sad day in America and a pathetic day for the GOP when, at the end of the day, all they have left to pin their hopes on is racism.
You know whats real sad? That Doc Fluty is involved in the military. I wonder if they let him get away with calling people Negro's there?

Doc Fluty
10-02-2008, 05:53 PM
umm.. ya they do

and i dont get made at people when Marines said "sup white boy" or other little tit for tat fake outrage... people are people.. it only matters if the mission gets acomplished, not skin color..

if someone is you bud and youll die for him, and him for you.. i doubt he would get mad if you walked up and said "sup jew?" (granted hes a jew lol)

only kids cry about name calling

DenButsu
10-02-2008, 08:55 PM
Come on, DF, I think you're the last person here who needs to be reminded that military culture is a unique thing, and that the language and conduct that fly there don't fly in mainstream society much of the time. That pretty much goes without saying, right?

I'm sorry, man, but it is just true. The word "negro" is basically considered a derogatory term these days unless it's being used in a historical context, so a sentence like "Barack Obama is a negro" has distinctly racist connotations. That's just how the word is perceived in mainstream society, especially when used by a white person to describe a black person. If you said the comment you made above in any public place, you'd see jaws drop.

ari1013
10-03-2008, 12:08 PM
FiveThirtyEight is challenging Real Clear Politics' credibility (http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/09/real-credibility-problems.html)
I said that same thing a few weeks ago. RCP's cooking their books.

SmthBluCitrus
10-03-2008, 01:43 PM
NH into the "lean Obama" category on the RCP Electoral Map (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/). Obama up 5.6 in the state.

ari1013
10-03-2008, 01:48 PM
NH into the "lean Obama" category on the RCP Electoral Map (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/). Obama up 5.6 in the state.
But they moved out CO. In the end, it doesn't really matter what these little swings show. He'll win IA, he'll win CO, and he'll win every Kerry state (inc. NH) -- and with that, he wins the election.

The other 107 EVs he picks up on top of that are just gravy.

Raider_Vet
10-03-2008, 05:19 PM
I would like to know if anyone can dig up a poll showing how many undecided voters there are at this point in the election. My feeling is there are not many at all. With the way the VP debate went lastnight I don't think the national polls will change.

DenButsu
10-03-2008, 07:48 PM
RV, just about everything I've seen indicates that undecideds don't comprise more than 5-10% of the electorate at this point.

Doc Fluty
10-04-2008, 01:04 AM
Come on, DF, I think you're the last person here who needs to be reminded that military culture is a unique thing, and that the language and conduct that fly there don't fly in mainstream society much of the time. That pretty much goes without saying, right?

I'm sorry, man, but it is just true. The word "negro" is basically considered a derogatory term these days unless it's being used in a historical context, so a sentence like "Barack Obama is a negro" has distinctly racist connotations. That's just how the word is perceived in mainstream society, especially when used by a white person to describe a black person. If you said the comment you made above in any public place, you'd see jaws drop.

all right den.. ill give ya that one.. i really didnt give it enough thought when i typed it. to me negro isnt anything offensive.. to me it is the same as if i called him black or african american..

but in some peoples opinions calling each other ***** isnt offensive... but i guess it all depends on how the people around you feel about your intentions of the word. i guess people thought my intentions were bad but they were not.

carlos mencia talks about when your friends with someone you can call him a *****, *** or whatever cause that's what friends do.. but in America today we got to be sensitive, walk on egg shells and treat people different based on skin color and what is politically correct.

in my opinion.. making rules for how races can address each other does not help with trying to pass the message that everyone is the same or that we are all equal. special words and tip toeing around each other

the word negro isnt a bad word. im not going to teach my daughter that it is a forbidden word that can only be used in describing history. negro is the spanish word for black, so if i was Hispanic it is ok to use the word???

what about the united negro college fund.. should they change the name?

my point is when you put people in separate categories.. you foster racism.

im not going to say i was wrong for saying the word.. i wont apologize. but i will ask for people to not be so sensitive and not play the "gotcha" game.

db75
10-04-2008, 01:56 AM
all right den.. ill give ya that one.. i really didnt give it enough thought when i typed it. to me negro isnt anything offensive.. to me it is the same as if i called him black or african american..

but in some peoples opinions calling each other ***** isnt offensive... but i guess it all depends on how the people around you feel about your intentions of the word. i guess people thought my intentions were bad but they were not.

carlos mencia talks about when your friends with someone you can call him a *****, *** or whatever cause that's what friends do.. but in America today we got to be sensitive, walk on egg shells and treat people different based on skin color and what is politically correct.

in my opinion.. making rules for how races can address each other does not help with trying to pass the message that everyone is the same or that we are all equal. special words and tip toeing around each other

the word negro isnt a bad word. im not going to teach my daughter that it is a forbidden word that can only be used in describing history. negro is the spanish word for black, so if i was Hispanic it is ok to use the word???

what about the united negro college fund.. should they change the name?

my point is when you put people in separate categories.. you foster racism.

im not going to say i was wrong for saying the word.. i wont apologize. but i will ask for people to not be so sensitive and not play the "gotcha" game.

...just for clarification, negro (the Spanish word for black) and negro (the term for an African American man) have two different pronunciations (but you probably know that).

And this might just be me, but I know some Black people are offended by being called Black. I'm just curious as to why this is. Saying African American isn't always correct. You could be from a South American country and look "African American." I don't say I'm a Dutch American because I was born in America. I am an American, but for visual descriptions, I am white. That color issue is just something that is curious to me.

ari1013
10-04-2008, 03:15 PM
I would like to know if anyone can dig up a poll showing how many undecided voters there are at this point in the election. My feeling is there are not many at all. With the way the VP debate went lastnight I don't think the national polls will change.
Obama's basically leading McCain 49.5 to 42 at this point. Tack on another 1.5% for 3rd parties and you've got 7% of the population undecided (plus or minus 3%). So Den's right that it's no more than 5-10% total.

ari1013
10-04-2008, 03:16 PM
...just for clarification, negro (the Spanish word for black) and negro (the term for an African American man) have two different pronunciations (but you probably know that).

And this might just be me, but I know some Black people are offended by being called Black. I'm just curious as to why this is. Saying African American isn't always correct. You could be from a South American country and look "African American." I don't say I'm a Dutch American because I was born in America. I am an American, but for visual descriptions, I am white. That color issue is just something that is curious to me.
It is silly. In any other country, it's just "Black."

Raider_Vet
10-04-2008, 05:36 PM
Obama's basically leading McCain 49.5 to 42 at this point. Tack on another 1.5% for 3rd parties and you've got 7% of the population undecided (plus or minus 3%). So Den's right that it's no more than 5-10% total.
RV, just about everything I've seen indicates that undecideds don't comprise more than 5-10% of the electorate at this point.Wow I am suprised that many people are still undecided at this point. Thanks Den and ari.

DenButsu
10-04-2008, 09:33 PM
Obama breaks 50% for the first time in pollster.com's average of all polls:

http://www.pollster.com/polls/us/08-us-pres-ge-mvo.php

ari1013
10-06-2008, 10:54 AM
This week's update:

Rasmussen: 52 - 44
Research 2000: 52 - 40
Diagio: 47 - 41
Gallup: 50 - 43
Battleground: 50 - 43

We're up to 5 daily polls now. The dailies are better than the regular polls because right now they only cover post-debate dates.

So we're looking at 50.2% Obama, McCain 42.2%

Again, assuming that 1.5% of the remaining 7.6% goes independent, we're left with 6.1% undecided at this point. Adding in the MoE (about 2.5%), we're now looking at between 3.6% and 8.6% undecided.

ari1013
10-06-2008, 12:51 PM
Georgia looks like it might be in play. McCain's still up 50 - 43, but Chambliss is only up 47 to 46 in the Senate race.

A little more movement, and GA actually does end up in the battleground set.

Saint Brian
10-06-2008, 01:36 PM
Georgia looks like it might be in play. McCain's still up 50 - 43, but Chambliss is only up 47 to 46 in the Senate race.

A little more movement, and GA actually does end up in the battleground set.

I saw that earlier in an article on fivethirtyeight.com. McCain having to dedicate resources to places like Georgia would be devastating to his strategy to pull out wins in Ohio, Virginia, Colorado and Florida.

ari1013
10-06-2008, 01:46 PM
I saw that earlier in an article on fivethirtyeight.com. McCain having to dedicate resources to places like Georgia would be devastating to his strategy to pull out wins in Ohio, Virginia, Colorado and Florida.
It's an investment he can't afford to make, nor should he make it.

If McCain loses GA, he already lost the election. He's better off investing in FL, OH, PA, and VA. That's where he makes his stand. If he wins those 4, he wins the election.

ink
10-06-2008, 01:49 PM
This poll (http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=00f2d8fb-6a3b-425d-9f27-21df796e8fe5) has Obama up by 10 in Virginia.

Here's another ...


A new poll by Suffolk University shows Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) with a double-digit lead over GOP nominee John McCain in Virginia.

Obama draws 51 percent to McCain's 39 percent, although the poll's sample skews heavily toward the Democrats, which may be inflating Obama's margin.

"Barack Obama has built a coalition of suburban DC area progressives from the north, African-American voters from the south, and young voters statewide," said David Paleologos, director of the Political Research Center at Suffolk University in Boston. "That broad-based support suggests a 44-year Republican run in the Old Dominion State, dating back to Lyndon Johnson's victory in 1964, is in jeopardy."

The poll conflicts with one last week by Mason Dixon that showed McCain leading Obama by 3 points in Virginia.

The Suffolk poll also shows Democratic Senate candidate Mark R. Warner beating GOP candidate James S. Gilmore by 33 points, similar to the advantage Warner held in the Mason-Dixon poll.

http://voices.washingtonpost.com/virginiapolitics/2008/10/obama_leads_mccain_in_new_va_p.html

Saint Brian
10-06-2008, 01:56 PM
It's an investment he can't afford to make, nor should he make it.

If McCain loses GA, he already lost the election. He's better off investing in FL, OH, PA, and VA. That's where he makes his stand. If he wins those 4, he wins the election.

It would take a miracle for McCain to win PA; it's just not realistic. And it has been polling toward Obama for a long time. Ohio's polling numbers are similar to PA's so I'm not sure how realistic that is either. I don't put it in the same category as PA because it hasn't been polling this strongly for Obama for nearly as long. VA, NC, and FL are really the last stand for McCain. He has to turn the tide in those states soon or this thing is over.

ari1013
10-06-2008, 02:01 PM
It would take a miracle for McCain to win PA; it's just not realistic. And it has been polling toward Obama for a long time. Ohio's polling numbers are similar to PA's so I'm not sure how realistic that is either. I don't put it in the same category as PA because it hasn't been polling this strongly for Obama for nearly as long. VA, NC, and FL are really the last stand for McCain. He has to turn the tide in those states soon or this thing is over.
But that's the thing. If he loses PA and OH, he already lost the election -- even if he wins VA, NC, and FL. Replace PA with CO and you have the same effect.

McCain must win all of the following: CO, FL, OH, and VA -- top priority.

If McCain wins VA, I don't think Obama wins NC, but NC would be top priority as well if you think that's possible.

Saint Brian
10-06-2008, 02:47 PM
But that's the thing. If he loses PA and OH, he already lost the election -- even if he wins VA, NC, and FL. Replace PA with CO and you have the same effect.

McCain must win all of the following: CO, FL, OH, and VA -- top priority.

If McCain wins VA, I don't think Obama wins NC, but NC would be top priority as well if you think that's possible.

I think NC is more realistic than OH for McCain. I think the people of Ohio (and I may be wrong) take a long look at what happened with McCain pulling out of Michigan. It is the same class of people essentially (at least in the Northern part of the state) that McCain moved away from in surrendering MI. It's really looking like the only holdout from the entire rust belt going to Obama is Indiana.

I'm in NC and I registered to vote here since voting in NJ will have no effect on the race. Obama signs are going up all over the place and frankly, more military are pro-Obama than pro-McCain around here. NC is definitely trending away from McCain. This is a very educated state and it is unlikely that the lastest McCain campaign tactic will have any effect other than be looked at for what it is, an attempted distraction.

ari1013
10-06-2008, 03:33 PM
I'm in NC and I registered to vote here since voting in NJ will have no effect on the race. Obama signs are going up all over the place and frankly, more military are pro-Obama than pro-McCain around here. NC is definitely trending away from McCain. This is a very educated state and it is unlikely that the lastest McCain campaign tactic will have any effect other than be looked at for what it is, an attempted distraction.


I wish I could say the same about Missouri.

Uncle Funster
10-06-2008, 08:08 PM
I must admit (sadly), it looks very grim for McCain with just a month left. Something major will have to occur if he is to catch up.

DenButsu
10-07-2008, 08:34 AM
270towin is now showing (http://www.270towin.com/combinations_live.php?party=Republican&num_rem=107&st_remain=FL,OH,NC,VA,IN,MO,CO,NV,NH&me=&ne=) just two possible scenarios for a McCain victory (given FL,OH,NC,VA,IN,MO,CO as battleground states):

Combinations
1 FL+OH+NC+VA+IN+MO+CO+NV
2 FL+OH+NC+VA+IN+MO+CO+NH

SmthBluCitrus
10-07-2008, 10:14 AM
This one is more fun than anything ... nothing scientific, but there are some good quips. The Mitchellville rest stop is surrounded by signage that states "Don't Pick Up Hitchhikers" ... because Mitchellville is a medium-security female prison town.


Hansen: Rest Stop Exit Poll reveals ... something
Marc Hansen

With less than a month to go before the election, it's time to release the results of the 2008 Mitchellville Rest Stop Exit Poll.

Four years ago, this coldly unscientific poll — margin for error plus or minus 87 percent — forecast John Edwards as the winner of the Iowa caucuses. He finished second.

Hang out long at an Interstate Highway 80 rest stop, pestering motorists as they leave the restrooms, and one of two things will happen. You will either be mistaken for a sex offender, or you will get lots of opinions about who should be the next president of the United States.

Here's what they said Monday from 9 a.m. to noon: Barack Obama and Undecided are running neck and neck for the presidency. Obama had 36 percent of the Rest Stop vote, Undecided had 33 percent and John McCain had 31 percent.

Surprisingly, 75 percent of the undecideds said they're leaning toward Obama.

Although it's a small sampling, it's a passionate, sometimes eccentric sampling. The Rest Stop Poll confirms what most of us already know.

Politically, we live in a fiercely divided land. Listen long enough and you wonder whether Iraq is the country that needs the partition. I talked to people from Arkansas, California, Colorado, Florida, Illinois, Kansas, Michigan, Missouri, Montana, Nevada, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Texas and Washington state.

Zero respondents said they wished George W. Bush were running again.

Buffy and Ed Isenberger and Holly the miniature schnauzer were undecided, though Buffy was leaning toward Obama. Ed, who was against the bailout, doesn't think much of either candidate.

One woman said she was voting for McCain because he's "against abortion, which is so wrong for our country." Her husband said he liked Sarah Palin because "she's on our level. She talks my kind of talk. I understand what she's saying."

A woman from Orange County, Calif., called Palin arrogant and Biden experienced.

"She's been accused of abusing her power in Alaska," the woman said. "God knows what she'd do in the White House."

An 80-year-old woman from Texas broke some news: Obama lacks a legitimate birth certificate.

"He isn't a true American," said her husband. "He wouldn't do the Pledge of Allegiance. He'll pull out of Iraq, and he wants to increase taxes. That's the main reason I'm not voting for him. If he's elected, all his buddies will be in, and you know what happens then."

Not really, but it sounds ominous.

Bob Baron, a retired University of Iowa professor, and his wife, Penny, were going to Reno. They walked in just as I was finishing talking with Robert F. from Des Moines, who was saying "Obama couldn't pour (urine) out of a boot. Besides, he's a communist."

Robert gave me his full name, but just to be on the safe side, I'm not using it.

"Who are we voting for?" Baron said with a snort. "Are we drooling? Do we have teeth in our mouth? Did we get out of 12th grade?"

Before I could answer, "No, yes, I think so," Bob and Penny said they were voting for Obama.

Darlene and Russell Root from Colorado are both in their 60s and both for Obama. Russell, a Vietnam veteran, said McCain plays the "war ace card" too much: "You never heard the World War II guys using that to further their career."

Darlene said McCain wasn't a maverick so much as a "risk taker." Russell questioned his ability as a pilot.

Two seconds later, Chuck Privateer, 68, walked into view and said he's voting for McCain because of his courage as a pilot. Privateer, who splits time between New York and Florida, was visiting his son in Omaha and had come from a big Palin event.

"I was Navy," he said, "and I know the strength of character, the courage, the intelligence needed to get into a single-engine jet aircraft. It takes a special kind of person."

The stock market, down another 370 points Monday, isn't helping McCain. The lower it sinks, the more ground he seems to lose. A former school administrator from Sheboygan said he'd normally be for McCain but not since the market gave his retirement savings a 25 percent haircut.

A 60-something man who'd never voted for a Democrat told me he had more than $100,000 in his IRA last year and lost $7,000.

"Thank you, Mr. Bush."

Last year? Wait till he sees the statement from last quarter.

Des Moines Register (http://www.desmoinesregister.com/article/20081007/NEWS03/810070369/1001/NEWS)

PHX-SOXFAN
10-07-2008, 04:43 PM
Yahoo summing up the polls:

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ynews/ynews_ts59

wow a 9 point lead in the national poll!:speechless:

DenButsu
10-08-2008, 11:33 AM
How Obama is Beating the 2004 Benchmarks (http://blog.newsweek.com/blogs/stumper/archive/2008/10/07/how-was-kerry-doing-four-years-ago-nowhere-near-as-well-as-obama.aspx)

ink
10-08-2008, 07:01 PM
Obama is competitive in so many states that President Bush carried in 2004 — including Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, Ohio, Indiana, Iowa, Colorado and New Mexico — it is not eccentric to think he could win at least 350 of the 538 electoral votes.

If that seems startling, that is only because the 2000 and 2004 elections were won with 271 and 286, respectively. In the 25 elections from 1900-1996, the winners averaged 402.6. This, even though the 1900 and 1904 elections — before Arizona, New Mexico and Oklahoma attained statehood — allocated only 447 and 476 electoral votes, respectively. The 12 elections from 1912 through 1956, before Hawaiian and Alaskan statehood, allocated only 531.

In the 25 20th-century elections, only three candidates won with fewer than 300 — McKinley with 292 in 1900, Wilson with 277 in 1916 and Carter with 297 in 1976. President Harry Truman won 303 in 1948 even though Strom Thurmond won 39 that otherwise would have gone to Truman. After John Kennedy won in 1960 with just 303, the average winning total in the next nine elections, up to the 2000 cliffhanger, was 421.4.

http://www.tampabay.com/opinion/columns/article844620.ece

Your Name Here
10-08-2008, 07:06 PM
As a buddy said to me the other day.....

If Obama doesn't win, the Democratic party needs to just fold up. This election is basically being handed to them, and if they don't take it, they don't deserve to exist any longer.

ari1013
10-08-2008, 10:06 PM
I'd have to agree. Everything seems to be lining up for the entire Democratic party this year -- except for Pelosi's approval ratings. I really hope the next Congress votes for a different Speaker.

DenButsu
10-09-2008, 04:40 AM
I really hope the next Congress votes for a different Speaker.

Amen, hallelujah and **** yeah to that. :clap:

As long as "change" is the order of the day, let's wipe the slate clean.

SmthBluCitrus
10-09-2008, 09:41 AM
I wouldn't be opposed to Pelosi being voted out as SotH. I'd like to see Harry Reid taken down as Senate Majority Leader, too -- I'd like to see them put Hillary Clinton in that role; I think she'd do well.

I'm not sure of the chances of either of those happening. The Dems on the hill are pretty giddy with her up there in charge.

DenButsu
10-09-2008, 09:53 AM
Clyburn would be cool.

SmthBluCitrus
10-09-2008, 10:13 AM
I'd be OK with that. I think Hoyer might be "next in line" so-to-speak, however. I'd be good with somebody like Rahm Emanuel, too. Although, I'd really love to see Bruce Braley (D-IA1). But, that's because I love Bruce Braley.

He'll probably end up working his way to running for Tom Harkin's Senate seat when he decides to pack it in.

SmthBluCitrus
10-09-2008, 11:28 AM
OK, RCP's Electoral College Toss-ups map (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/) now shows Obama with a secure victory. They've moved Virginia into the lean Obama category. That gives Obama a secure 277 EVs. If things hold true to that, even if McCain wins the remaining states he loses the election.

The newest polls for Virginia (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/va/virginia_mccain_vs_obama-551.html) show Obama up anywhere from 2 points to 12 points ... with an average of 8 (if you only use the previous four polls).

Gotta love that Virginia voter-registration drive. :D

marques724
10-09-2008, 02:51 PM
I have been saying Obama was going to turn VA blue. It looks like he has a shot in NC and IN as well

SmthBluCitrus
10-09-2008, 02:53 PM
Georgia is getting closer and closer to in-play, as well.

ink
10-09-2008, 02:56 PM
Georgia is getting closer and closer to in-play, as well.

I've been watching that too. :) My friends in Georgia will be happy.

ari1013
10-09-2008, 03:01 PM
I wouldn't be opposed to Pelosi being voted out as SotH. I'd like to see Harry Reid taken down as Senate Majority Leader, too -- I'd like to see them put Hillary Clinton in that role; I think she'd do well.

I'm not sure of the chances of either of those happening. The Dems on the hill are pretty giddy with her up there in charge.
They're blinded by their power. With her there another 2 years, the GOP is going to have a much easier chance of gaining seats in 2010 -- which really should be a good year for the Dems (going by history).

SmthBluCitrus
10-09-2008, 03:51 PM
West Virginia to toss-up at RCP (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/)

ari1013
10-09-2008, 03:57 PM
West Virginia to toss-up at RCP (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/)
I don't buy that. It was an ARG poll that did it. And ARG is notoriously the worst polling outfit in the country.